The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
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Vikings at Redskins
The Redskins are currently three-point favorites for their Week 10 matchup against the Vikings. It could be a low-scoring affair, as the current Vegas total of 42.5 points is tied for the second-lowest mark of the week. The Redskins are currently implied to score 22.75 points, while the Vikings are implied to score 19.75 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field this Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Sam Bradford
Bradford threw for 273 yards and one touchdown against the league’s second-worst defense in pass DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) last week. His upside is non-existent and one look at his performances on the road this season shows just how much he’s struggled to accumulate any sort of fantasy success:
As our Trends tool shows, Bradford has posted a -3.02 Plus/Minus with zero percent Consistency and has averaged 11.2 DraftKings points in his three road games this season. He’s priced at the DK minimum with a 94 percent Bargain Rating and has the second-lowest projected floor among all quarterbacks.
RB – Matt Asiata, Jerick McKinnon, and Ronnie Hillman
The Vikings utilized three running backs during their Week 9 loss to the Lions. Asiata led the way by playing 28 of 70 snaps, McKinnon received 26 snaps, and Hillman was on the field for 16 snaps. The trio received 11, seven, and eight touches, respectively, and combined to rush for just 3.12 yards per attempt. The biggest issue for the Vikings’ run game this season seems to be their offensive line, as playerprofiler.com has graded the offensive line as the second-worst run-blocking unit in the league. Overall, the Vikings are averaging a league-low 2.7 yards per carry – the worst mark since the NFL merger, per PFR. They’ll look to get back on track this week against a Bears defense that has allowed a 48.96 percent rush success rate over the past 12 months – the fifth-worst mark in the league. It’s hard to get excited about any of the three running backs, but Asiata is the highest-projected back of the group and he’s priced at $3,800 on DK with a +3.45 Projected Plus/Minus.
McKinnon (ankle) has practiced fully this week, so if he happens to suck in Week 10 it probably won’t be because of an injury.
WR – Stefon Diggs
Diggs had never been targeted more than 12 times in a game before surpassing that threshold in each of the past two weeks. He’s capitalized on the massive workload, as he’s posted an average line of 10.5-78-0.5. Bradford ranks among the bottom-10 quarterbacks in deep-ball attempts per game, so Diggs has made the most of his opportunities. Overall, he’s caught 72.7 percent of his targets through nine weeks — the ninth-best mark among all wide receivers. ESPN’s Mike Clay reported Wednesday that Diggs is not expected to see much of Josh Norman, PFF’s 12th-best cover cornerback this season. Diggs is priced at $6,700 on FanDuel with a 92 percent Bargain Rating and has a 6.3-point projected floor.
WR – Adam Thielen
Thielen has averaged a 3.5-49-0 line on 5.5 targets per game over the past two weeks. His efficiency numbers are still among the top-25 receivers this season, but there are far better receiver options than the No. 2 wide receiver for Bradford, who has a league-low 7.2-yard aDOT. Thielen is priced at $3,800 on DK with an 80 percent Bargain Rating and has a -0.91 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Cordarrelle Patterson
Patterson has been targeted six-plus times in four of his last five games. He’s finished with at least 36 receiving yards in each game, although he’s yet to surpass 70 receiving yards in a game. Translation: Patterson is getting a bunch of short targets that he hasn’t managed to convert into any big plays yet. Sure enough, his longest reception this season is just 21 yards and his 3.4-yard aDOT ranks 122 out of 123 receivers this season, per PFF. Patterson has all the natural talent in the world, but he hasn’t done anything of substance with it for over two years. He’s priced at $3,400 on DK and has zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
TE – Kyle Rudolph
Rudolph has cooled off considerably after a hot start to the season, as he’s posted a +0.73 Plus/Minus and has averaged just 7.3 DK points over his past four games. Overall, Rudolph ranks just 42nd among all tight ends in fantasy points per opportunity since Week 5, per PFF. Still, the most troubling issue may be his season-low three targets during the Vikings’ Week 9 loss to the Lions. Rudolph has historically averaged fewer PPR points and targets per game without Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator, so the switch to Pat Shurmur may be a bad sign of things to come for Rudolph’s involvement in the offense. He’ll look to get back on track this week against a Redskins defense that has allowed 7.6 yards per play over the past 12 months – tied for the fourth-highest mark in the league. Rudolph is priced at $5,000 on FD with an 88 percent Bargain Rating and has six Pro Trends.
Washington Redskins
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Kirk Cousins
Cousins has attempted 40.12 passes per game and averages 306.8 passing yards per game (fourth-most) this season. He has also attempted the eighth-most passes (23) inside the 10-yard line. Cousins is currently the eighth-ranked quarterback in Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement by Football Outsiders. That said, the Vikings have allowed the third-fewest passing yards (1,803), sixth-fewest passing touchdowns (eight), and third-fewest fantasy points per game (12.5) to quarterbacks in 2016. Per our Trends tool, the Vikings have allowed a +0.96 Plus/Minus to QBs with similar projected ceilings this season. With FantasyLabs projected ownership of one percent or less in guaranteed prize pools, Cousins is a volatile GPP play against a strong Vikings pass defense.
RB – Rob Kelley
Coach Jay Gruden says that Kelley will now get the “bulk” of the Redskins’ carries as the lead back in Washington. In that role for the first time before the bye week, Kelley handled 21 carries and was targeted twice. The Redskins offensive line is the third-best run blocking unit in the NFL according to FO’s Adjusted Line Yards metric. The Vikings have allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards (656) and 10th-fewest fantasy points per game (15.5) to running backs this season. Per our Trends tool, RBs comparable to Kelley playing at home as small favorites have traditionally generated a +2.53 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
RB – Chris Thompson
Thompson has remained involved in the offense no matter who’s been the No. 1 RB over the past month. He has averaged 7.5 carries and 4.75 targets per game over his last four games. Comparably-priced RBs on DraftKings with similar opportunities have provided a +2.40 Plus/Minus with 60.4 percent Consistency. Thompson is a solid-yet-unspectacular way to round out a lineup with some low cost points.
WR – Jamison Crowder
Crowder has been Washington’s most consistent WR this season and, in his last game before the bye, he became the first Redskins receiver to have back-to-back 100-yard receiving games in two years. Crowder has been a low-owned, Plus/Minus beast the past four games — averaging 7.25 targets, 5.5 receptions, and 18.83 DK points per game at an average ownership level of 5.1 percent. He also has the added potential to score on punt returns, further increasing his Upside. With FL projected ownership of two to four percent in the Milly Maker, stacking Crowder with Cousins and the Washington D/ST would be a compelling way to differentiate your lineup.
WR – Pierre Garcon
Per our Matchups tool, Garcon should run some routes against Xavier Rhodes, the lowest-graded Vikings cornerback, per Pro Football Focus. Garcon has averaged 7.5 targets per game over his last four games but has turned those targets into just 55.5 yards per game. Garcon hasn’t had a huge fantasy game yet this season and it’s hard to imagine him having one against the Vikings defense. Garcon is not much more than a GPP dart this week.
WR – DeSean Jackson
Jackson (shoulder) is officially doubtful. Some reports say that he will not play this weekend, although Gruden insists that D-Jax could still play depending on “how he’s feeling with his strength.” Jackson is likely to sit out Week 10, and even if he’s active he’ll be a very unreliable and risky player.
Jackson, like Garcon, has been targeted heavily (7.75 per game in the last four games) but hasn’t turned the opportunity into fantasy points. Jackson has not had more than 55 receiving yards in his last four games and has been held to only 35 yards in two of those games. He has averaged 8.08 DK points during that time frame. Jackson has experienced a Salary Change of -$1,300 this season and his price on DK hasn’t been lower than it is this week. Jackson leads the Redskins with a 28.92 percent market share of Air Yards over the past month and has FL projected ownership of just two to four percent in the Milly Maker.
TE – Jordan Reed
The Vikings have allowed just 1,803 total receiving yards this season, but 511 of those yards have been from tight ends. The 28.3 percent of receiving yardage allowed to TEs is the highest mark in the league. Jordan has averaged 10.25 targets per game in the last four games he’s played in. Reed has a 95 percent Bargain Rating on FD, where he is currently the No. 3 rated TE in the Bales Player Model. With FL projected ownership of only five to eight percent in FD’s Sunday Million, Reed is an elite GPP play.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
