The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
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Texans at Jaguars
The Texans are currently 1.5-point favorites for their Week 10 matchup against the Jaguars. There isn’t expected to be a whole lot of scoring, as the current Vegas total of 42.5 points is tied for the second-lowest mark of Week 10. The Jaguars are currently implied to score 20.5 points, while the Texans are currently implied to score 22 points. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field this Sunday afternoon.
Houston Texans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Brock Osweiler
Osweiler had about as good of a matchup as you could ever ask for last week. He faced the Lions, who have the second-worst defense in football in pass DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). They were also without Darius Slay, PFF’s 10th-highest graded cornerback this season. And for the cherry on top, Osweiler was playing at home. He got the win but threw for 186 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. This underwhelming performance has been the case all season for Osweiler and there really isn’t a single part of his game to get excited about:
As playerprofiler.com shows, Osweiler has struggled to throw the football accurately under essentially any condition imaginable. He’s priced at $5,400 on DraftKings and has the lowest-projected ceiling among all quarterbacks.
RB – Lamar Miller
Coach Bill O’Brien said that he believes Miller will suit up this Sunday. He’s been dealing with a lingering shoulder injury and, while the injury itself isn’t too concerning, its effect on Miller’s workload is. He averaged 23.66 touches in his six games prior to injuring his shoulder but has averaged just 16.5 touches per game in his two games since suffering the injury. Miller had a bye in Week 9 to rest up, but he’s still not a lock for 20-plus carries this week. He’s priced at $7,500 on FanDuel with a 92 percent Bargain Rating for his matchup against a Jaguars defense that is ranked just 27th in DVOA against the run this season.
RB – Alfred Blue
Blue had a historically-bad yards-per-carry average prior to this season but is now averaging a strong 5.2 yards per carry through nine weeks. Despite the solid play, he won’t be considered as a fantasy option unless Miller is forced to miss some time.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
Nuk has averaged 2.5 fewer targets per game this season, but that doesn’t fully explain why he’s had such a hard time getting anything going. The key difference between this year and last comes down to the amount of fantasy-friendly targets he’s received. In 2015, Nuk averaged 1.38 red-zone targets per game and had a 14.9-yard aDOT. This season, he’s averaging 0.63 red-zone targets per game and has a 12.0-yard aDOT. Put simply: He’s had fewer chances to both score touchdowns and catch passes down the field. Considering Osweiler is among the least-accurate quarterbacks in the league in throwing downfield and in the red zone, the second half of the season doesn’t look great for Nuk. It definitely won’t be easy for him to get back on track this week, as rookie CB Jalen Ramsey will likely be following him all over the field. Nuk is priced at $7,400 on FD with a 95 percent Bargain Rating and has an 8.1-point projected floor.
WR – Will Fuller
Fuller (leg) is listed as questionable, but he practiced this week and is expected to play.
He’s struggled to get much of anything going after a hot start to the season:
As our Trends tool shows, he’s posted a -4.55 Plus/Minus with 16.7 percent Consistency and has averaged just 7.35 DK points over his past six games. Fuller is priced at $6,300 on FD with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and has two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Braxton Miller
Miller has more red-zone targets than Hopkins this season. That’s not an endorsement for Miller, but it demonstrates just how dysfunctional the Texans’ passing game has been through nine weeks. Miller will be the team’s No. 3 wide receiver while Jaelen Strong recovers from a sprained ankle and, while he’s shown promise, he’s yet to gain over 30 yards or be targeted more than four times in a game. He shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option this week.
TE – C.J. Fiedorowicz
Fiedorowicz has now been targeted seven-plus times in four consecutive games. He hasn’t been particularly efficient with his targets, but there’s good reason to believe this large workload will continue. Osweiler has targeted his tight ends on 26 percent of his passes over the past five months – the fifth-highest rate in the league. Exposure to Fiedorowicz should be focused on FD, where his $5,200 price tag comes with an 83 percent Bargain Rating and a +2.36 Projected Plus/Minus. He does have a tough matchup against John Cyprien, PFF’s eighth-highest graded safety this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Blake Bortles
Bortles managed to throw for 252 yards and two touchdowns at Arrowhead last week and tacked on an impressive 54 rushing yards. Through nine weeks, he’s averaging 20.52 DK points per game, good for the 10th-best mark among all quarterbacks. Still, he’ll need to overcome a Texans defense that has given him fits in the past:
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Bortles has averaged nearly six fewer fantasy points during his four career games against the Texans. Obviously the presence of J.J. Watt could have played a major role in those down performances, but this new-look Texans defense is pretty solid in their own right. Through nine weeks, they’re ranked as the seventh-best defense in pass DVOA. Bortles is priced at $5,500 on DK with an 88 percent Bargain Rating and has a 6.6-point projected floor.
RB – Chris Ivory
New offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett promised to run a more balanced offense and he was true to his word at least for one week. Ivory’s 19 touches were just one touch shy from equaling his total number of touches over the previous three weeks. He didn’t disappoint with the large workload, as he ran for 107 yards and was a centimeter away from scoring a goal-line touchdown that wound up being a fumble. Ivory will likely split touches and snaps with T.J. Yeldon for the rest of the season, but even 15 touches at $3,400 on DK is a pretty solid bargain. He’ll face a Texans defense that is just one of seven teams to allow at least 10 rushing touchdowns this season.
RB – T.J. Yeldon
Last week, Yeldon actually played 43 snaps versus 34 for Ivory, but Yeldon had just 12 touches compared to 19 for Ivory. Yeldon has now had four-plus receptions in consecutive weeks and will carry a decent floor as the team’s receiving back, but he’s still a risky play most weeks due to his uncertain amount of touches and his lack of red-zone opportunities. Yeldon is actually more expensive than Ivory across the industry this week. He’s priced at $3,700 on DK and has a tough matchup against Paul Posluszny, PFF’s 10th-highest graded linebacker in coverage this season.
WR – Allen Robinson
Not only did Robinson gain more than 75 yards last week, but he also scored a touchdown! While it was nice to see A-Rob get a solid game under his belt, it didn’t exactly erase the brutal efficiency he’s demonstrated for most of the season. Through nine weeks, Robinson is averaging 1.32 fantasy points and 5.5 yards per target – marks that rank outside the top-80 among all wide receivers. He also finds himself in a very difficult matchup against A.J. Bouye, PFF’s highest-graded cornerback this season. A-Rob is priced at $7,000 on FD with a 97 percent Bargain Rating and has five to eight percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Allen Hurns
Hurns (concussion) is officially questionable. He practiced this week but is still in the league’s concussion protocol and won’t play unless he is cleared before Sunday.
Even if he’s ultimately able to suit up, he’s struggled throughout his career to get anything going at home:
As our Trends tool shows, Hurns has posted a -0.2 Plus/Minus with 47.1 percent Consistency and has averaged just 9.39 DK points in his 17 career games at EverBank Field. He’s priced at $5,600 on FD with a 76 percent Bargain Rating and has a tough matchup against a Texans defense that has allowed 1.2 points below salary-based expectations to wide receivers over the past 12 months.
WR – Marqise Lee
Lee and Robinson each have 442 receiving yards this season. The difference is that Lee has reached this threshold on 32 fewer targets. Lee doesn’t hold the same value as A-Rob due to his lack of a red-zone presence, but the rise of Lee certainly bodes well for the future of the Jaguars’ receiving group. Lee has a great matchup this week against Johnathan Joseph, PFF’s 92nd-highest graded cornerback this season. Lee is priced at $3,900 on DK, making him the cheapest Jaguars receiver with the best matchup. This isn’t a complete secret, as Lee also has five to eight percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
TE – Julius Thomas
Thomas was targeted just twice against Eric Berry and company last week and things don’t get any easier this week. The Chiefs are the best defense in the league in Plus/Minus allowed to tight ends, but the Texans aren’t far behind at No. 2. Thomas hasn’t managed to surpass 30 receiving yards since Week 2 and isn’t guaranteed a large role in the new-look Jaguars offense. He’s priced at $2,900 on DK with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and has six DK Pro Trends.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
