The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Falcons at Buccaneers
This game currently has a slate-high 50-point Vegas total. The Falcons are one-point road favorites implied to score 25.5 points; the Eagles are implied for 24.5 points.
Atlanta Falcons
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Matt Ryan
Ryan enters Week 10 red-hot but faces a tough matchup on paper against the Eagles. The Eagles rank first in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average), but they have seen their performance dip recently. Over the last two weeks, the Eagles have given up back-to-back solid fantasy outings to Dak Prescott (28.3 points on DraftKings) and Eli Manning (23.9), who combined for seven total touchdowns. Ryan leads all quarterbacks in yards per attempt (8.5) and has the second-highest projected DK ceiling via our Player Models (33.8). Ryan has a favorable +3.0 Projected Plus/Minus against Philadelphia’s secondary and should be a great play again this week in what Vegas projects as a shoot-out.
RB – Devonta Freeman
Taking sole ownership of the backfield last week, Freeman finished with 19 total touches and a rather-pedestrian 12.5 points on DK. He’s in a prime bounce-back spot this week against an Eagles defense that has struggled against opposing running backs following their bye week: They’ve given up 26.2 DK points to Theo Riddick, 22.5 to Matt Jones, and 18.8 to Ezekiel Elliott. The fact that the Eagles have given up a ton of points to different types of RBs should be a good sign for a multi-faceted player like Freeman. Freeman ranks top-12 in both rushing yards and receiving yards so far this season. According to the Week 10 Market Share Report, Freeman has also been dominating touches inside the 10-yard line over the past four games:
RB – Terron Ward
Ward saw eight carries last week as the primary backup to Freeman but gained just 30 yards. Ward will likely have a similar role, which limits his ceiling as a DFS asset.
RB – Tevin Coleman
Coleman (hamstring) has been ruled out for Week 10. Ride with Freeman.
WR – Julio Jones
The Eagles’ pass defense may rank highly per DVOA, but Julio doesn’t face a particularly daunting matchup against Nolan Carroll. Carroll ranks as Pro Football Focus’ 86th-ranked cornerback on the year and Julio should run most of his routes on his side of the field. Julio has surpassed 20-plus fantasy points on FanDuel in three of his last four games. That said, only Antonio Brown has scored 20 points on the Eagles so far this season. Given his price tag on FD ($8,600), it may be best to save him for tournaments there.
WR – Mohamed Sanu
Sanu has become a much bigger factor in this Atlanta passing attack over the last four games, averaging 7.8 targets per game. He has received 17 targets in the last two and put up 158 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles have done a sound job of defending slot receivers this year, making him much more of a GPP play if targeting this high-total game.
WR – Taylor Gabriel, Justin Hardy, and Aldrick Robinson
All three of these receivers have been wildly inconsistent so far this season in terms of snaps and targets. None have projected FD floors higher than 2.8 points.
TE – Austin Hooper
Ostensible starter Jacob Tamme (shoulder) has been ruled out. Hooper will get another start in his place.
The Eagles have been elite against opposing tight ends, allowing the second-fewest receptions and receiving yards to the position. Vernon Davis is the only player who has exceeded double-digit FD points against them. However, Hooper’s minimum $4,500 price tag on FD makes for a potential bargain play if punting the tight end position; he has a +3.7 Projected Plus/Minus this week and 88 percent Bargain Rating there.
Philadelphia Eagles
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Carson Wentz
According to our Trends tool, the Falcons have allowed a +3.80 Plus/Minus to quarterbacks on DraftKings in 2016. No team in the NFL has allowed more touchdown passes (23), passing yards (2,739), or fantasy points per game (23.2) to quarterbacks than the Atlanta Falcons. Wentz is currently the No. 1 rated QB in CSURAM88’s Player Model for DK, where he has a top-12 projected ceiling and a bottom-seven salary. Wentz has quietly attempted 45 passes per game in his past two games. Playing in a game that boasts the highest total of the week with FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent in DK’s Milly Maker, Wentz is a great play in guaranteed prize pools.
RB – Darren Sproles
Eagles coach Doug Pederson finally made it official on Monday: Sproles (not Ryan Mathews) is the Eagles’ No. 1 running back. Sproles has averaged 14 carries and eight targets per game while out-snapping Mathews by a count of 123 to 16 over the past two games. The Falcons have allowed the second-most targets (85) and receptions (71) and most receiving yards (547) to RBs in 2016. Sproles is currently a top-five rated RB in both the Adam Levitan and Cash Models for DK and FanDuel. He’s a great play in all contest formats this week.
RB – Ryan Mathews
With Pederson admitting that Sproles is the lead dog, Mathews has officially been relegated to touchdown vulturing duty. He has played less than 12 snaps in four of his last six games. Mathews has had less than 10 carries in three of his last four games and has not scored more than 8.0 FD points during that time. Playing him is extremely risky at this point.
WR – Jordan Matthews
J-Matt is currently a top-seven rated wide receiver on both DK and FD in five of our six Pro Models. He has been targeted a total of 25 times in his last two games and has averaged nine targets per game over his last four — a 25 percent target share for the Eagles. Atlanta has allowed the most targets (220), receptions (140), and fantasy points per game (28.1) to WRs this season. Matthews is in a dream spot and is a sharp play in both cash and GPP formats this weekend on both sites.
With Falcons CB Desmond Trufant (shoulder) ruled out for the game, the Falcons are expected to start Jalen Collins on the outside and undrafted free agent Brian Poole in the slot. Matthews should be able to take that dog for a walk.
WR – Dorial Green-Beckham
DBG was shut out last week and dropped multiple potential catches, including a would-be touchdown. That said, he is second on the Eagles with a 15.71 percent target share over the past four games (an average of 5.5 per game). Green-Beckham is the No. 1 rated player in the Sports Geek Player Model for DK, where he has an 87 percent Bargain Rating and FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent in the Milly Maker. He’s an intriguing GPP play in large-field tournaments this week.
WR – Nelson Agholor
Agholor continues to be targeted heavily: He’s seen 5.25 targets per game in his last four games. Now the problem: He had his best game in six weeks last week, and that best game was four catches for 41 yards and 8.1 DK points. Agholor is a GPP-only dart this weekend.
TE – Zach Ertz
Ertz got more targets last week (eight) than he had received in the previous two games combined (seven). The Falcons have allowed the sixth-most receptions (48), second-most touchdowns (six), and fifth-most fantasy points per game (10.2) to tight ends this season. The Eagles made a concerted effort to get Ertz involved last week, and offensive coordinator Frank Reich said that the Eagles want to “feature” Ertz in the red zone. He’s worthy of GPP exposure in this potential high-scoring shoot-out.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
