NFL DFS Week 10 Main Slate Picks Breakdown: Saquon Barkley in Smash Spot

NFL Week 10 features a 10-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud

Patrick Mahomes stands out in a tier of his own this week. There has been a clear top three at the position this season – Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts – but only Mahomes figures to be available on the main slate. There’s still a chance that Allen suits up, but I would consider him doubtful after failing to log a single practice.

While Allen and Hurts both bring rushing upside to the table, Mahomes can dominate solely with his arm. He leads the league in both passing touchdowns (21) and passing yards per game (325.6), and he’s attempted at least 40 passes in three of his past four outings.

Mahomes has considerable upside this week vs. the Jaguars. The Chiefs lead the slate with an implied team total of 30.25 points, and no other team is above even 26.5. That’s a pretty massive disparity. Mahomes has historically crushed in most situations, but he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.41 when implied for at least 30 points (per the Trends tool). The Jags also rank 27th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, so Mahomes can do serious damage in this spot.

Value

Justin Fields has finally arrived, at least for fantasy purposes. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games on DraftKings and increased his production in all four weeks. He has at least 24.36 DraftKings points in each of his past three contests, culminating with 45.72 DraftKings points last week vs. the Dolphins.

The secret to Fields’ improvement has been his willingness to run the football. I’m not sure why that took so long to figure out – Fields is one of the most athletic quarterbacks in league history – but he’s seen a massive uptick in his number of carries over the past four weeks. He has at least 12 attempts and 88 rushing yards in three of them, which are elite numbers for the quarterback position.

Fields draws another fantastic matchup Sunday vs. the Lions. They managed to limit Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to nine points last week, but they still rank 26th in defensive DVOA. They’ve been equally poor against the run and the pass, so Fields should have a few different avenues for success in this spot.

Quick Hits

Mahomes and Fields should command the most ownership at the position, but Tua Tagovailoa won’t be far behind. He’s been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football this season, leading the league with an average of 9.93 adjusted yards per attempt. The Dolphins boast of the top receiving tandems in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and Tua has taken full advantage. He’s had at least 300 yards and three scores in back-to-back weeks, and the Dolphins’ implied team total of 26.5 ranks second on the slate.

On the other side of that matchup, Jacoby Brissett has some sneaky upside this week. The Dolphins have been a massive pass funnel, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA and seventh in rush defense, so Brissett could have to take to the air more often than usual. Brissett has been effective when asked to throw this season – he ranks ninth in Pro Football Focus grade at the position – and he’s coming off 21.32 DraftKings points in his last outing. He has upside at just $5,400.

Could Case Keenum warrant consideration as the Bills’ starter? Matt Martin takes a look in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Stud

Paying up for a stud running back feels more viable than it has been in quite some time. There have been a host of strong values at the position in recent weeks, but that’s not really the case in Week 10. In THE BLITZ, five of the top seven running backs in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus are priced at $7,100 or more.

That includes Saquon Barkley, who should be the latest running back to victimize the Texans. Their run defense has been an abomination this season, surrendering at least 136 rushing yards in all but one contest. They rank dead last in rush defense DVOA, and Barkley unsurprisingly leads the slate with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.0.

Barkley has hit a bit of a swoon recently, but he remains one of the busiest running backs in football. He’s averaged 20.4 rushing attempts and 4.4 targets per game, and only Derrick Henry has more touches this season. Barkley has averaged a robust 4.8 yards per attempt, so expect him to make the most of his opportunities in this matchup.

Value

While most of the strong midrange running backs have been priced up this week, Dameon Pierce is an exception. Pierce has blossomed into a workhorse running back in his rookie season. He’s dominated the rushing attempts for most of the year, and he had 96% of the team’s carries last week vs. the Eagles. He turned his 27 attempts into 139 yards, good for an average of 5.15 yards per carry.

The more significant development is his involvement in the passing game. Pierce started the year by ceding most of the receiving work to guys like Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbawale, but he’s started to become more of a factor. He didn’t see a target last week, but he posted a route participation of at least 56% for the second straight week.

Pierce also stands out from a Vegas perspective. The Giants were initially listed as 6.5-point favorites in this matchup, but they’re down to just -4.5. The sharps have a clear interest in the Texans, which suggests this game should be closer than the team’s records indicate. As long as Pierce gets his touches, he should continue to provide some of the best value at running back.

Quick Hits

Alvin Kamara is coming off just four targets last week, but he had at least nine targets in each of his previous three games. That makes him an excellent bounce-back target vs. the Steelers. They’ve been middle of the pack at defending RBs in the passing game, and the return of T.J. Watt doesn’t figure to help much in that department.

If Allen sits for the Bills, the team could opt for a more balanced attack this week vs. the Vikings. They currently rank in Pass Rate Over Expectation, but having an MVP candidate at quarterback is obviously a big reason why. His absence could benefit Devin Singletary, who continues to handle most of the snaps and opportunities in the Bills’ backfield. He’s a nice value at just $5,600 on FanDuel.

Travis Etienne Jr. has been phenomenal since taking over as the Jaguars’ lead back, and he sits atop some of our NFL Models this week. Matt Martin breaks down the talented runner in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud

Tyreek Hill is starting to feel very similar to how Cooper Kupp felt last year: If you can afford him, he’s worth consideration every week. Hill has been a target monster in recent weeks, logging at least 13 in four of his past six games. He only got to eight targets last week vs. the Bears, but he still torched them for seven catches, 143 yards, one touchdown, and 30.3 DraftKings points. Overall, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.00 on DraftKings this season, and he’s on pace to become the first 2,000-yard receiver in NFL history.

The Browns should provide minimal resistance for Hill this Sunday. They rank 18th in pass defense DVOA, and they’re 21st against No. 1 receivers. He leads all receivers in projected Plus/Minus per THE BLITZ, which is hard to do at a $9,100 price tag.

Value

Finding value is difficult this week, but Mack Hollins should help at receiver. The Raiders placed Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller on Injured Reserve this week, leaving Hollins as the primary pass-catcher alongside Davante Adams.

Adams is going to get most of the opportunities in Las Vegas, but there should still be plenty for Hollins. He thrived in his first game without Renfrow this season, turning 10 targets into eight catches, 158 yards, and one touchdown. He wasn’t quite as productive in his second outing without Renfrow, but Derek Carr managed less than 200 passing yards vs. the Broncos.

Hollins is set up for success this week vs. the Colts, who made one of the most mind-boggling decisions in recent memory this week. They scrapped their head coach in favor of Jeff Saturday, who has zero coaching experience above the high school level. He will have less than a week to figure things out before taking on the Raiders, which seems like a recipe for disaster. The fact that Shaq Leonard has been ruled out won’t help, either.

Quick Hits

Zay Jones is another potential source of value on DraftKings. He hasn’t been a strong value recently, but he’s played on all but eight snaps over the past four weeks. The Jaguars might have to lean on the passing game more than usual vs. the Chiefs, so Jones has the potential for a breakout performance. Christian Kirk is a bit more expensive, but he also has the potential for a strong showing vs. the Chiefs.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is back. The fantasy production hasn’t been there for him over the past two weeks, but he’s racked up 19 targets. Overall, he’s been targeted on 33% of his routes run this season, which compares favorably with guys like Hill (35.0%) and Kupp (32.4%). ARSB is priced at a fraction of those players, and he draws an advantageous matchup vs. the Bears in Week 10.

The Browns’ receivers could provide some value at modest ownership this week, given their elite matchup vs. the Dolphins. Amari Cooper has been the team’s clear No. 1 option in the passing game, but don’t sleep on Donovan Peoples-Jones. He’s racked up a 20.3% target share over his past five games, which puts him just slightly behind Cooper (24.8%).

Stefon Diggs has a previous relationship with Keenum, setting up the rare “double revenge game” narrative vs. the Vikings. Is he worth a sprinkle in GPPs? Matt Martin makes the case in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.

NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud

Travis Kelce is the clear top stud at the tight end position. His median projection on DraftKings is more than 10 points higher than every other option in THE BLITZ, while his ceiling projection is closer to 12 points higher.

Kelce could also have a few additional opportunities this week. Mecole Hardman has been ruled out with an abdominal injury, and he ranks fourth on the team with a 10.8% target market share. Kelce leads the team at 24.8%, which is a pretty modest number for a top pass-catcher. Kelce and Hardman don’t exactly fill the same role, but he could still pick up a few extra targets vs. the Jaguars.

The Jaguars are also a phenomenal matchup, ranking dead last in DVOA vs. the tight end position. Kelce is worth consideration across the industry, but his 85% Bargain Rating makes him particularly appealing on FanDuel.

Value

There are some robust value options to consider at tight end this week, but Foster Moreau seems like the best. He’s priced at just $3,200 on DraftKings, and he’s been highly involved in the Raiders’ passing attack in recent weeks. He’s played on at least 97% of the team’s offensive snaps in three straight games and has an 88% route participation in each of his past two. Moreau has also been targeted on at least 15% of his routes in three straight weeks, giving him a solid floor at his current price tag.

Quick Hits

Greg Dulcich is the other excellent value option at the position on DraftKings. He’s wasted little time acclimating himself to the Broncos’ offense, racking up at least 11.1 DraftKings points in each of his three games. Dulcich is coming off a season-high 91% route participation in his last contest, and he’s posted a target share of at least 20% in back-to-back weeks. It’s hard to get too excited about anyone in the Denver passing game, but Dulcich could be the exception.

Don’t forget about Evan Engram. He could be overlooked after busting last week vs. the Raiders, but he had at least 9.0 DraftKings points in each of his four previous games. He’s an excellent bounce-back option vs. the Chiefs in a game that the Jaguars will likely trail throughout.

If you’re looking to pay down on FanDuel, Robert Tonyan is worth some consideration. He’s one of the few members of the Packers’ passing attack that Rodgers trusts, and he could see a slightly more prominent role with Romeo Doubs out of the lineup.

Roster Construction

In recent weeks, the hard part of building cash game lineups has been figuring out which value running backs to jam in. This week, we’re looking for value anywhere we can find it.

That includes playing two tight ends in cash games. That’s not something I usually consider, but Dulcich and Moreau stand out as two of the best per-dollar options on the entire slate. It allows you to take advantage of the best plays at the rest of the positions, so it’s something to keep in mind.

If you’re not willing to go with the dual-TE strategy, you will need to make some sacrifices. You’ll likely need to use two of the value options at receiver – Hollins, Jones, or DPJ – and you won’t be able to get up to Tyreek. THE BLITZ has Mahomes and Kirk as the optimal QB/WR1 pairing in those builds, but I prefer Fields and St. Brown.

The good news is that it leaves you plenty for your two running backs and flex spot. Using a trio of Barkley, Kamara, and Pierce is certainly viable, while Henry and Etienne are other strong options.

As usual, the equation is a bit easier on FanDuel. The one big difference is that you should be taking advantage of the value with Singletary at running back. To put it into perspective, Singletary is a full -$2,100 cheaper than Pierce on FanDuel, but he’s just -$700 cheaper on DraftKings. Pairing Singletary with a value receiver and a value tight end leaves enough salary for Mahomes at QB, Hill and St. Brown at receiver, and Pierce and Etienne at RB.

As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.

Make sure to also take advantage of all the excellent written content that will be produced prior to kickoff.

Good luck this week!