The Week 10 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 10, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
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Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Lamar Jackson: $7,300 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel
- Jameis Winston: $6,800 DraftKings; $7,900 FanDuel
- Drew Brees: $6,700 DraftKings; $8,300 FanDuel
- Kyler Murray: $6,500 DraftKings; $7,700 FanDuel
Lamar Jackson: Baltimore Ravens (-10) at Cincinnati Bengals, 45.5 Over/Under
UPDATE (Nov. 9): Jackson missed practice on Thursday with an illness but practiced fully on Friday. He’s playing. WR Marquise Brown (ankle, thigh) popped up on the Friday injury report with a questionable designation, but he got in a limited practice and is expected to play. Bengals CB Dre Kirkpatrick (knee) is out.
So maybe the Patriots should’ve drafted L-Jax???
Last week, in just his 16th NFL start, the would-be wide receiver completed 73.9% of his 23 attempts for 163 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions against the league-best Patriots defense.
While there’s nothing all that special about his passing performance, Jackson’s refusal to turn the ball over against such a ball-hawking defense was impressive, and when his 61 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries are taken into account, Jackson comes out of his Week 9 Sunday Night Football matchup looking like the second coming of Michael Vick.
For the week, he was a top-four fantasy quarterback with 28.6 DraftKings and FanDuel points. And remember, this performance came against the defense that has held opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 9.6 DraftKings and 9.5 FanDuel points per game.
What a baller.
For the season, he’s the No. 1 fantasy quarterback with 27.7 DraftKings and 26.2 FanDuel points per game. Thanks to his elite running ability — he’s No. 9 among all players with 79.6 rushing yards per game — Jackson has an incredibly high Konami Code floor. At the position, Jackson is No. 1 with 11.9 carries and 2.1 red-zone carries per game (per Player Profiler).
In every week but one, he has been a fantasy QB1 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
He has been a strong source of value with his +8.59 and +8.68 Plus/Minus values on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he has hit his salary-based expectations in every game but one.
At this halfway point, Jackson is a legit MVP candidate.
Jackson is in a very smash-able spot this week. Although he’s on the road, he still in the positive side of his career favorite/underdog splits (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- Favorite (10 games): 25.1 DraftKings points, +7.51 Plus/Minus
- Underdog (six games): 21.6 DraftKings points, +3.82 Plus/Minus
More importantly, Jackson has a great matchup. The Bengals are No. 30 against the pass and No. 29 against the run (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA). Whether he’s throwing or rushing, Jackson should be able to produce.
In Week 6 against these same Bengals, Jackson was a top-three fantasy quarterback with 33.6 DraftKings and 30.6 FanDuel points. Against the two dual-threat quarterbacks they’ve faced who are most comparable to Jackson — Joshua Allen and Kyler Murray — the Bengals allowed 22.4 DraftKings points with a +4.84 Plus/Minus.
The Bengals are coming off the bye, but No. 1 corner Dre Kirkpatrick (knee) and slot corner Darqueze Dennard (hamstring) both missed Week 8 and are uncertain for this weekend. Kirkpatrick has been out since Week 7, and Dennard has played in just one game this season. They might be healthy, but I’m skeptical. Wide receivers Marquise Brown and Willie Snead have advantageous matchups against fill-ins B.W. Webb and Tony McRae.
And Brown didn’t even play against the Bengals in Week 6. With Hollywood on the field, Jackson could have an even bigger day than he had a month ago. Use our Lineup Builder to stack Jackson with Brown.
As the slate’s highest-priced quarterback, Jackson isn’t cheap, but he’s a desirable option for both cash games and guaranteed prize pools: Jackson leads all quarterbacks with his median projections as well as his Projected Plus/Minus values.
For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jackson is the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales, CSURAM88 and Raybon Models. For DraftKings only, he’s the top option in the Levitan and Koerner Models. For FanDuel only, the Freedman Model.
Jackson is also the No. 1 quarterback in our Week 9 fantasy football rankings.
Jameis Winston: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals, 51 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 9): Cardinals slot CB Tramaine Brock (hamstring) and defensive end Brooks Reed (hamstring, IR) are out.
Winston has a league-worst 12 interceptions and a lowly 59.3% completion rate. And yet he’s No. 1 with 10.8 intended air yards and 1.8 yards beyond the first-down marker per attempt (per Next Gen Stats). At a certain point in the season, the difference between pain and pleasure is almost nonexistent.
But this week with Winston we seem likelier to experience rapturous joy than tortured agony: He’s playing the Cardinals.
Winston is an extremely matchup-dependent player, and that’s been especially true this season. Against teams with a top-12 pass defense DVOA — 49ers (1st), Panthers (3rd, twice) and Saints (12th) — he has struggled mightily.
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3).
Against his remaining opponents — Rams (15th), Titans (20th), Seahawks (21st) and Giants (27th) — he has excessively outperformed (per the RotoViz Game Splits App).
- Top 12 pass defense (four games): 14.5 FanDuel points, -1.72 Plus/Minus, 251.5 yards and 1.25 touchdowns passing, two interceptions
- Non-top 12 pass defense (four games): 24.6 FanDuel points, +8.55 Plus/Minus, 350.3 yards and 2.75 touchdowns passing, one interception
The Cardinals are No. 28 in pass defense DVOA and No. 30 with a coverage grade of 42.7 (per Pro Football Focus). They have allowed a league-high 25.2 FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Wide receiver Mike Evans has a matchup for the ages against shutdown cornerback Patrick Peterson — but in his three weeks since finishing a season-opening six-game suspension, Peterson has been rough, allowing an 82.4% catch rate, 204 yards and two touchdowns.
Meanwhile Evans leads the league with seven receiving touchdowns as well as 1,407 air yards and yards after the catch combined (per AirYards.com). If Evans is able to get the best of Peterson, that will be massive for Winston.
And even if Evans simply battles Peterson to a draw, Winston could still have a big day thanks to wide receiver Chris Godwin, tight end O.J. Howard and pass-catching back Dare Ogunbowale: The Cardinals are respectively Nos. 25, 32 and 29 in pass defense DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers, tight ends and running backs.
Finally, the Bucs are at home, where Winston has exhibited significant splits since 2017 (the first year of the Evans/DeSean Jackson and now Evans/Godwin era).
- Home (13 starts): 20.4 FanDuel points, +3.93 Plus/Minus, 76.9% Consistency Rating
- Away (15 games): 16.6 FanDuel points, +0.56 Plus/Minus, 53.3% Consistency Rating
The Bucs-Cardinals game has a slate-high 51.5-point over/under.
Bang a gong.
Winston is viable in both cash games and GPPs.
Winston is the No. 1 quarterback in the Koerner and SportsGeek Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high 67% Bargain Rating.
Drew Brees: New Orleans Saints (-13) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 51.5 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 9): RB Alvin Kamara (knee, ankle), WR Tre’Quan Smith (ankle) and Jared Cook (ankle) are in. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant (toe) is a questionable game-time decision.
Brees hasn’t topped one of our main-slate Models since Week 10 last season, but those who wait are rewarded.
In Week 8, Brees returned from his hand injury with a 373-yard, three-touchdown passing performance, and he should be ready and rested for the reeling 1-7 divisional rival Falcons off the Week 9 bye.
For a multitude of reasons, I absolutely love this spot for Brees.
First, the Saints have a slate-high 32-point implied Vegas total. Points upon points will be scored at the Coors Field of fantasy football. With Brees at quarterback, the Saints have a 64-45-2 record to the over at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, good for an A-graded 15.2% return on investment (including postseason, per Bet Labs).
Over the past half decade, Brees has been one of the league’s best home quarterbacks.
- Home (44 games): 24.1 DraftKings points, +3.89 Plus/Minus, 63.6% Consistency Rating
- Away (40 games): 18.7 DraftKings points, -1.59 Plus/Minus, 40.0% Consistency Rating
Brees is basically a flow chart quarterback. At home, play. Away, fade.
And his matchup against the Falcons is about as enticing as it gets. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks with 24.9 per game, and they are dead last in the league with a 36.4 PFF coverage grade.
The Falcons secondary is all jumbled. Pro-Bowl strong safety Keanu Neal (Achilles, IR) is out. No. 1 corner Desmond Trufant (toe) has missed three straight games and is yet to return to practice.
Before their bye, the Falcons in Week 8 radically reorganized the unit in an attempt to stabilize it: Ricardo Allen moved from free safety to strong safety, slot corner Damontae Kazee shifted to free safety, fourth-round backup corner Kendall Sheffield slid from the perimeter into the slot and special-teams veteran Blidi Wreh-Wilson started at left corner.
It’s hard to say the moves made a difference: The Seahawks had a 24-0 lead going into halftime, and quarterback Russell Wilson attempted just 20 passes in a run-heavy game.
With so many back-end players out of position, the Falcons pass defense looks incredibly exploitable.
In his eight games against head coach Dan Quinn’s Falcons, Brees has averaged 23.5 DraftKings points with a +3.29 Plus/Minus.
Brees leads all quarterbacks with his floor projection on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 option in the SportsGeek and Freedman Models.
Kyler Murray: Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 51 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 9): RB David Johnson (ankle) is in. RB Chase Edmonds (hamstring) is out. RT Justin Murray (knee) is expected to be out. Bucs CB Carlton Davis (hip) is out.
Murray entered the season as a top-five dynasty rookie, and it’s hard to say that he’s disappointed. The course of true love never did run smooth, and Kyler has had a bumpy road to this point in the season, but he’s the No. 10 FanDuel quarterback with 18.9 points per game.
While Murray’s 64.2% completion rate and 247.7 yards per game aren’t top-10 marks, they’re solidly respectable, and he’s flashed as a runner, ranking in the top three with 6.2 carries, 1.3 red-zone carries and 34.8 rushing yards per game.
After struggling in Weeks 7-8, Murray went to San Francisco in Week 9 and put up 23.0 FanDuel points — the most they’ve allowed all year — on the 49ers and their No. 1 pass defense DVOA in a prime-time spot.
And now, with three extra days of rest, he gets to face the Bucs, who are horrible. Just last week, the Bucs allowed a Millionaire Maker-winning 378-yard, five-touchdown performance by Russell Wilson. For the year, they have allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks with 23.4 per game.
Coaches often behave irrationally, but I expect the Cardinals to throw a lot in this game. The Bucs have one of the league’s most extreme funnel defenses. They are No. 1 against the run (-41.5% DVOA) but No. 26 against the pass (23.1% DVOA). In such a situation, the Cardinals have little incentive to run.
Wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk have especially attractive matchups.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Arizona Cardinals Kyler Murray (1) David Johnson (31), Larry Fitzgerald (11), Christian Kirk (13) and KeeSean Johnson (19).
After spending most of his career on the perimeter, cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III for the past two weeks has played primarily in the slot, where he seems likely to struggle.
Just last week, he significantly contributed to Tyler Lockett’s slate-best performance, personally allowing eight receptions and 105 yards on the 10 targets in his coverage. Fitz has slowed down over the past two seasons, but he could have a throwback performance against Vernon of the House Hargreaves, Third of His Name.
Last week, two intriguing developments occurred. First, the Cardinals pivoted away from their base four-wide set by moving Kirk to the perimeter. Second, the Bucs started third-stringish rookie Jamel Dean over perimeter cornerback Carlton Davis (hip), who suffered an injury in warmups and didn’t play.
His status is uncertain for Week 10, but if Kirk stays on the perimeter and Davis is out, he will have soft matchups against Dean — who allowed a 9-155-3 performance on 14 targets last week — and fellow rookie Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has been in nickel packages for just four games.
Against these corners, Fitz and Kirk could put up significant quarterback-enhancing production.
Defensively, the Bucs are No. 2 overall with 480.4 air yards and yards after the catch allowed per game. The Bucs are riper than a summer melon.
Murray is the No. 1 quarterback in the Levitan Model for FanDuel, where he has a position-high ceiling projection.
On the Week 10 Fantasy Flex pod, we highlight Murray as a player we like this week.
Upside Quarterbacks for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,000 DK, $8,400 FD): Mahomes (knee) is tentatively expected to return to action after suffering a dislocated knee in Week 7. In his six full games this year, Mahomes has averaged 26.7 DraftKings points and 350.7 passing yards. The Titans will be without right corner Malcolm Butler (wrist, IR), and backup corner LeShaun Sims is utterly exploitable with his 42.1 PFF coverage grade. UPDATE (Nov. 9): Mahomes is in after practicing fully all week. LT Eric Fisher (groin) is still out. RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (ankle) is questionable. Titans DT Jurrell Casey (shoulder) and LB Jayon Brown (groin) are out.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons ($6,100 DK, $7,500 FD): Coming off the bye, Ryan (ankle) is expected to play against the Saints after missing Week 8. Before his injury, Ryan hit the 300-yard threshold each week and was the No. 2 quarterback with 27.4 DraftKings points per game in his first six starts. After a shaky start, the Saints defense has improved over the past six weeks, thanks primarily to shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore’s reemergence, but in his four games against the Lattimore-led Saints secondary, Ryan has averaged 23.5 DraftKings points per game with a +5.88 Plus/Minus. UPDATE (Nov. 9): Ryan is in. RB Ito Smith (neck) is out. LG James Carpenter (knee) and RG Jamon Brown (foot) are in.
Brian Hoyer, Atlanta Falcons ($5,900 DK, $7,100 FD): Starter Jacoby Brissett (knee) seems unlikely to play after his injury-induced second-quarter Week 10 exit, so Hoyer is the guy who will have the opportunity to benefit from a home matchup against the tanking Dolphins. Wide receivers T.Y. Hilton (calf) and Parris Campbell (hand) are out, but the Dolphins have such a talent-deficient secondary that I doubt Hoyer will miss them. Last week in almost three quarters of action, Hoyer handled himself well, completing 65.4% of his attempts for a 168-3-1 passing performance. No. 1 corner Xavien Howard (knee, IR) is unavailable, and last week perimeter corner Ken Webster (ankle) was out, so the Dolphins went with undrafted rookie third-stringer Nik Needham and undrafted third-year special-teamer Ryan Lewis on the outside. They also moved slot corner Jomal Wiltz to safety and replaced him with undrafted second-year fourth-stringer Chris Lammons. No wonder the Dolphins are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA. UPDATE (Nov. 9): Brissett is out. Webster is out as is Dolphins S Reshad Jones (chest).
Sam Darnold, New York Jets ($5,800 DK, $7,200 FD): If not now, when? Darnold will have little GPP exposure after averaging 188 yards passing over the past three weeks, and the Giants have a funnel defense that ranks No. 14 against the run (-12.4% DVOA) but No. 27 against the pass (24.2% DVOA). No. 1 wide receiver Robby Anderson is likely to run most of his routes against rookie cornerback DeAndre Baker, whose 36.0 PFF coverage grade is the slate’s lowest mark for any starting corner. UPDATE (Nov. 9): RB Le’Veon Bell (knee) and TE Chris Herndon (hamstring) are expected to play. LT Kelvin Beachum (ankle) and RG Brian Winters (knee, shoulder) are questionable while C Ryan Kalil (knee, elbow) is doubtful.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants ($5,700 DK, $7,400 FD): In his seven starts, Jones has averaged 35.7 DraftKings points per game against the two teams to allow the most air yards and yards after the catch per game — the Lions (502.8) and Bucs (480.4) — but in his five remaining games, he’s averaged a horrid 12.5 DraftKings points with a -3.50 Plus/Minus and 0.0% Consistency Rating. But the Jets have an extreme funnel defense that ranks No. 2 against the run (-25.8% DVOA) but No. 25 against the pass (19.4% DVOA). Left corner Trumaine Johnson (ankle) missed Week 9 and is uncertain for Week 10. Right corner Darryl Roberts and backup Nate Hairston are liabilities on the perimeter and just last week they were targeted on 17 of Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 36 attempts on his way too a 288-yard, three-touchdown passing performance. UPDATE (Nov. 9): WR Sterling Shepard (concussion), TE Evan Engram (foot) and C Jon Halapio (hamstring) are out. RT Mike Remmers (back) is doubtful. Jets LB C.J. Mosley (groin) and CB Trumaine Johnson (ankle, IR) are out while LB Neville Hewitt and CB Darryl Roberts (calf) are doubtful.
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears ($5,100 DK, $6,500 FD): You might literally be the only person rostering him, and last year in his one game against the Lions, he had a slate-high 39.0 DraftKings points with a 355-3-0 passing, 3-18-1 rushing performance. The Lions have allowed a league-high 502.8 air yards and yards after the catch per game. UPDATE (Nov. 9): Lions DT Da’Shawn Hand (elbow) is out, while DTs Mike Daniels (foot), Damon Harrison (groin) and A’Shawn Robinson (ankle) are questionable. S Tracy Walker (knee) is out.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Saints fan Larry Rolling shows his support for quarterback Drew Brees
Photo credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
