The NFL has 10 games lined up for Week 10’s main slate on DraftKings after Sunday starts early with a matchup in Munich. With 20 teams in the player pool, there are lots of matchups to break down, and several teams have new pieces in new places following an active Trade Deadline. Seven games kick off the action at 1:00 p.m. ET, with just three games in the later window, as the spotlight matchup features the Cowboys and Eagles in an NFC East showdown.
The highest over/under on Sunday’s slate is from the Bucs-49ers game at 1:00 p.m. ET, and the Niners edge out the Rams and Lions for the highest implied team total on the 20-team slate. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 10. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Sam Darnold ($6,200) Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (47 total)
Darnold and the Vikings snapped a two-game losing streak with an eight-point win over the Colts in Week 9. In Week 10, they get a very favorable matchup in Jacksonville, and Darnold has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the projections from Koerner, Raybon, and THE BLITZ. Sometimes, we have to combine the projections into an aggregate (which we’ll use later in this post), but in this case, they all point in the same direction–to Darnold.
Last week, Darnold bounced back with three touchdowns and 22 DraftKings points against the Colts. He did have three turnovers as well, but his 290 passing yards helped make up for it. He has over 17 DraftKings points in six of his seven games since Week 1, with three games of at least 22 DraftKings points.
Last week, Darnold got TE T.J. Hockenson back in the mix after his return from IR last week and the offense should continue to roll nicely as the Vikings make a playoff push in the crowded NFC North.
This week is a great matchup for Darnold against the Jaguars, who have given up the most DraftKings points per game to opposing QBs this season. Opposing QBs have 19 touchdown passes in nine games this season, with an average of 275.3 passing yards per contest.
The matchup and his affordable salary make Darnold a great play this week and a good stacking option to consider with Justin Jefferson ($8,800).
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Ray-Ray McCloud ($4,300) Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (46.5 total)
The Falcons are in a great spot against the Saints, who traded Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders and were already struggling on defense vs. wide receivers. McCloud is a bargain play who has been regularly involved for the Falcons and could step into an even larger role depending on the status of Drake London ($6,700; hip). In the evenly blended three-way aggregate of Koerner’s, Raybon’s, and Carty’s projections, McCloud has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus, but Raybon has him in his top spot overall, and he could easily move up to that spot in the other rankings if London is unable to play.
McCloud has already been in a growing role and has played over 80% of snaps in every game since Week 1. He has multiple receptions in every game this season and has reached double-digit DraftKings points three times, including last week when he caught his first touchdown of the season and hauled in 3-of-3 targets for 28 yards.
He’d be a solid play even if London wasn’t dealing with a hip pointer since the Saints have allowed five wide receiver touchdowns in the last four weeks. Opposing receivers have totaled over 150 yards to receivers in six of their nine games while averaging 163.3 yards per contest.
Depending on how much work he’s lined up for, McCloud will be either a sneaky value or a must-play. With a relatively solid role at his salary barely over $4,000, he’s a low-risk option that also brings high upside depending on how the rest of the week unfolds.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
James Conner ($6,500) Arizona Cardinals (-1) vs. New York Jets (46 total)
Conner has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs in the aggregate projections, as the veteran continues to bring solid and consistent value from just under $7,000.
Last week, Conner took 18 carries for 107 yards and finished with 17.3 DraftKings points against the Bears. He left the game momentarily after taking a tumble, and Trey Benson ($4,800) vultured a score from him. Just before halftime, running back Emari Demercado ($4,600) also had a long run for a touchdown, but the two backs only combined for 12 carries compared to Conner’s 18. Even though Conner played 48% of the snaps on Sunday, he played 84% and 80% in the two previous weeks, so he’s still clearly the top option in the backfield.
He seems due for some positive touchdown regression at some point this season but has still produced at least 14 DraftKings points in five of his last six weeks. He has over 100 rushing yards in each of his last two home games and has also added multiple catches in five straight games.
Even though the Jets are typically decent against the run, Conner’s volume protects him from bad matchups. As long as the game stays close, he should get enough work to return solid value, and if he gets into the end zone, he could have a huge game.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Juwan Johnson ($3,300) New Orleans Saints (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons (46.5 total)
The Saints made a coaching change this week, but the offense should be relatively similar since Klint Kubiak is still offensive coordinator. The situation that actually impacts value options this week even more is the availability of Chris Olave ($6,100; concussion). Olave has been banged up multiple times this season and the injury seemed serious, so I’d be surprised if he is able to play this week in Atlanta. With extra targets available, Johnson could be a great value option and has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the aggregate early in the week.
Johnson left last week’s game with an injury but was able to return. He finished with two catches for 41 yards, tied for the second-most on the team with Taysom Hill ($4,000). Prior to that game, Johnson had at least three catches in four straight games dating back to a season-high five catches against the Chiefs.
We know Derek Carr ($5,300) relies heavily on tight ends, so if Olave is out, Hill and Johnson will both be good plays. With his salary barely over $3,000, Johnson could end up an elite value if more targets are set to come his way in this matchup vs. the Falcons.
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