We’re now heading into the second half of the NFL season, with Week 10 upon us. As usual, DraftKings is opening contests and releasing salaries for the week ahead on Sunday evening. In the fast-changing landscape of the NFL, that leaves plenty of time for obvious value to appear.
Let’s take a look at a few players who stand out for Week 9, using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently. Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
For full access to our models, you’ll need to sign up for a FantasyLabs subscription:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Justin Fields ($6,500) Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Detroit Lions (48 total)
Fields headlined this column last week, and he went off for a massive 45.72-point performance on DraftKings. That was part of a general upward trend for Fields and the Bears offense. Since Week 4, he’s increased his fantasy performance every week, and Week 9 was the third week in a row with at least 24 points.
Chicago is finally taking full advantage of him as a runner while also getting him some help in the passing game by trading for Chase Claypool. All of that makes him still a great value, despite a $1,200 salary bump compared to last week.
Of course, a matchup with a bad Lions defense helps too. They were bailed out last week with three Aaron Rodgers interceptions but have allowed at least 24 points in every other game. They’re also especially susceptible to running quarterbacks. Their pass rush is relatively solid off the edge, but the lack of pressure on the interior creates plenty of running lanes. They also play fairly man-heavy coverage, which also tends to favor rushing quarterbacks.
While we can’t expect another 40+ score from Fields, all signs point to another solid week from him. He’s no longer a budget quarterback, but he’s still a great value. He leads the position in Pts/Sal projections.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4,300) Cleveland Browns (+4) at Miami Dolphins (48.5 total)
DPJ has quietly carved out a solid role as the Browns’ No. 2 option in the passing game. He has five consecutive contests with at least four receptions and topped 70 yards in four of those. He’s within nine catches of teammate Amari Cooper on 20 fewer targets.
It’s a great matchup for the Browns’ passing game this week against a Dolphins team that was just carved up by Justin Fields and the Bears. Miami ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass and a much more reasonable 16th against the run. That, plus the expected negative game script, could lead to a more pass-heavy approach for the Browns.
That would be big for Peoples-Jones, who has nearly a 20% target share on the season. That ranks right behind JuJu Smith-Schuster, and ahead of Mike Evans and Tee Higgins on the season. He’s been taking bigger slices from a smaller pie so far, but that could change (to an extent) this week. He’s also due for some touchdown regression: He and Diontae Johnson are the only wideouts with 25 or more scoreless catches on the season.
Peoples-Jones leads our Pts/Sal projections as of Tuesday, with Cooper coming in second. Keep an eye on the injury status of tight end David Njoku, though. If he makes it back to the lineup, he’ll take some of the projected targets from Peoples-Jones and Cooper.
NFL DFS Running Back Values
Travis Etienne ($7,100) Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (50.5 total)
Etienne is another repeat offender at the top of his position. Like Fields, the combination of production and ownership in Week 9 pushed his salary upwards. Also, like Fields, our models still project him as the best points per dollar play at his position.
Since the Jaguars traded James Robinson, Etienne has functioned as a true workhorse back. He has 53 carries and five receptions in the past two games. He’s also scored three touchdowns and picked up the 100-yard rushing bonus in both contests.
With that said, there’s reason to be concerned this week. The Chiefs aren’t especially stout against the run, but they are massive favorites. Etienne has yet to be used as a major part of the passing attack and in fact, was targeted more when sharing duties with Robinson. Due to his heavy rushing workload, he’s come off the field more on passing downs in the weeks since.
However, the Jags could force-feed him in the passing game if they’re chasing points — no need to save him for rushing downs if you can’t run the ball. He’s not quite the play he was last week, but his explosive ability and solid workload still stand out.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Greg Dulcich ($3,400) Denver Broncos (+3) at Tennessee Titans (39 total)
Dulcich has been quite the story this season. He made his season — and NFL — debut in Week 6, bursting onto the scene with two catches for 44 yards and a score. Despite playing a position that’s notorious for sloe career starts, he’s hit double-digit DraftKings points in all three of his NFL games.
He’s somehow the fourth-most expensive tight end on the slate (barring Darren Waller returning), but outside of Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson, salaries are pretty condensed. There’s a strong case for Dulcich as the best option in the mid-$3,000 range, thanks to his explosive ability. Of his 12 NFL catches, two of them went for over 38 yards.
Surprisingly, his aDOT is actually deeper than both Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, which is somewhat rare for tight ends. He’s more like a high upside, low usage deep play receiver than a standard tight end. It’s hard to find that kind of upside at the position, making Dulcich a strong play.
While he might be a bit thin for cash games, given the awful game environment, he’s an excellent high-ceiling GPP play.
He trails only Kelce and Hockenson in ceiling projection, with a significant discount in salary.
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