NFL Week 1 features a 13-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
If paying up for a quarterback, there are really only two choices to consider at the top end. That’s Jalen Hurts ($8,000) and Lamar Jackson ($7,800). The other high-priced quarterbacks are primarily runners who offer little passing value, like Justin Fields $7,700, or pocket passers unlikely to contribute on the ground, like Joe Burrow ($7,100).
Admittedly, it’s a bit of a leap to assume Jackson gets it done through the air this week (or this season). He averaged less than 200 yards per game passing last season, with just 17 touchdowns over 12 games. However, the Ravens made serious investments in their passing game this season. They signed Odell Beckham, used a first-round pick on Zay Flowers, and are getting Rashod Bateman back after he played just six games last season.
On top of that, they switched offensive coordinators from the run-first Greg Roman to the more aerial-based Todd Monken, which is likely to matter more than any player additions. I’m expecting the Ravens to run up the score as nearly 10-point favorites against the Texans, which likely means a heavy dose of Jackson.
He’s the top projected quarterback in our models.
Hurts has already proven himself to be a legitimate dual-threat quarterback and should be even better as a passer with another year to build chemistry with A.J. Brown under his belt. He was limited through the air mostly by the scoreboard, with the Eagles frequently dominating games early last season.
At least on paper, this one should remain close. The Eagles are just four-point favorites in Foxborough against the Patriots in Week 1.
He’s been excellent as a moderate favorite throughout his career per our Trends Tool:
I don’t see any reason why that won’t continue this year, as the Eagles still have an elite offensive line and a bevy of weapons to throw to.
He trails only Jackson in median projection while coming in with a higher ceiling.
Value
Value quarterbacks are likely to be exceedingly popular this week, as there’s a handful with solid projections. The standout in terms of projection (and projected ownership) is Anthony Richardson ($5,600). The fourth overall pick in the draft, Richardson projects as a dangerous rusher, which gives him a solid floor for DFS.
I have concerns about his ceiling, though, as the Colts offense is likely to underwhelm. With Jonathan Taylor suffering an acute contract injury and limited weapons in the passing game, the Colts’ 21-point implied total is looking fairly generous.
Still, Richardson doesn’t need a massive score at his price tag. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him hit the 100-yard rushing bonus, in which case he’d be a touchdown away from 3xing his Week 1 salary. I prefer to play him “naked,” as his ceiling games are unlikely to bring any of his pass catchers along for the ride.
Sam Howell ($4,900) and the Commanders are seven-point favorites despite his near-minimum salary, which is always worth paying attention to. The 2022 fifth-round pick played just one game last season, but performed well in a “game manager” role against a tough Cowboys defense.
This week he draws a rebuilding Cardinals team that’s far more exploitable. Washington should be able to move the ball here, and he has plenty of weapons with Terry McLaurin being ruled in. McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, and Curtis Samuel are all YAC monsters who could score Howell some easy points with runs after the catch. Howell is tied with Richardon for the Pts/Sal lead in our models.
Quick Hits
Justin Herbert ($6,900) and the Chargers have the top implied team total on the slate against the Dolphins. Miami attempted to shore up their passing defense by trading for Jalen Ramsey in the offseason…only for Ramsey to be injured in the offseason. This one could turn into a shootout between the two explosive offenses, so stack Herbert with one of his pass catchers and a Miami bringback.
Similarly, Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700) is a solid option. Miami will probably be somewhat limited in the run game, so if they’re able to keep things close, it’s likely due to a large volume of passing from Tua. He’s a riskier option with the Chargers’ solid defense, but he had a few monster games last season, throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle.
Don’t forget about Geno Smith ($6,100) this week. The Seahawks invested heavily in him and the offense this off season, drafting Jaxon Smith-Njibia and Zach Charbonnet in the first and second rounds respectively.
He has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal against a Rams defense that’s rapidly aging and losing talent.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
Just like with the quarterbacks, we have a handful of players who excel in one area but a pair that stand out for their dual-threat ability. That’s Austin Ekeler ($8,400) and Christian McCaffrey ($8,700).
Ekeler finished fifth in the league in receptions last season and should continue to be the focal point of the Chargers offense after restructuring his contract to include nearly $2 Million in performance-based incentives this offseason. He averaged 12 carries and 6.3 receptions per game, with a valuable goal-line role that led to 13 rushing and 18 total touchdowns.
His involvement in the passing game and at the goal line makes him valuable no matter what the scoreboard looks like, just like McCaffrey. CMC had a career resurgence last year for San Francisco, scoring 10 touchdowns and piling up over 1,000 all-purpose yards over 11 games following his trade.
They’ll need him in Week 1 in a tight game against the Steelers. The 49ers are just 2.5-point favorites and should lean heavily on their star back. He’s historically excelled in tight games, where his teams are more willing to feed him touches than when the game gets out of hand:
McCaffrey and Ekeler are the top two backs in median and ceiling in our models, with McCaffrey holding a narrow edge in both.
Value
Value running backs are likely to be popular this week, as the separation between players in the $6K range and the top-end options isn’t that large. My favorite in the former group is Aaron Jones ($6,300). The Packers have an excellent offensive line matchup in Week 1 against the Bears.
I also expect new quarterback Jordan Love to be more than willing to dump the ball off to his running backs in this one. While Aaron Rodgers’ elite pocket presence allowed him to extend plays, the less experienced Love should lean more heavily on a safety valve.
Jones averaged roughly 3.5 receptions per game last season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number jump up a bit this year. He profiles as a budget version of Ekeler and McCaffrey, with a similar dual-threat role in close games. While he doesn’t have the explosiveness to match those two in efficiency, a similar workload would be enough at his price point.
He leads all running backs in the FantasyLabs models in Pts/Sal.
Quick Hits
Nick Chubb ($8,200) and Derrick Henry ($7,800) are the two best pure rushers in football. They both also have limited passing game roles, needing multiple touchdowns and the 100-yard bonus to pay off in DFS. Of course, both do exactly that a few times each season, with both topping 28 points (roughly 3.5x their current salaries) thrice last season.
Those games are hard to predict but painful to fade when they happen. I like Chubb’s outlook a bit more in Week 1, as the Browns are only narrow underdogs and will want to play keep away from the explosive Bengals offense. They also have the second-best offensive line in the league, according to Action Network’s Brandon Anderson, with the Titans ranking dead last.
With Jonathan Taylor holding out, the Colts backfield will interesting. Their top options are Deon Jackson ($4,100) and Evan Hull ($4,000), but it’s hard to say if either gets a true starter’s workload. THE BLITZ has Jackson projected slightly higher, which makes sense over the rookie Hull.
There’s no guarantee that the Colts get anything going offensively, but it wouldn’t take much at their salaries for either running back to be a good play. Especially with a rookie quarterback under center, they’re likely to lean heavily on the run game — it’s just a question of whether that produces any offense.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
I’m expecting most of the field to expend the majority of their salary at wide receiver, with a few top options standing out. Those are Justin Jefferson ($8,800), Tyreek Hill ($8,200) and Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100). Various projections have the order shuffled around, but those three are the consensus top options.
Of that group, my favorite price-considered option is Hill. Primarily due to the game environment between Miami and Los Angeles, which we’ve already touched on in the quarterback and running back sections. That game has the highest Vegas total on the board by 3.5 points and easily the most shootout potential.
The Bengals are taking on a Browns team likely to slow the game down as much as possible, while the Vikings are fairly heavy favorites and could lean on their own run game if things get out of hand early. Miami should be fairly pass-centric, with most of that production flowing to Hill.
All three players are solid bets to have a nice game, but Hill has the highest ceiling. That’s what we’re targeting, especially in large-field GPPs.
Value
With Cooper Kupp missing Week 1 (and probably beyond) of 2023, the rest of the Rams receivers have a massive target vacuum to fill. We currently have Tutu Atwell ($3,000) projected as the top Pts/Sal option on the slate at wide receiver, thanks to his minimum salary.
DraftKings pricing is fairly tight in Week 1, so reacting to post-salary release situations is one of the few ways to find cheap value. Atwell trailed only Van Jefferson ($4,700) in targets when Kupp was out last season — though most of those games were with Baker Mayfield at quarterback instead of Matthew Stafford, complicating things.
Besides Jefferson and Atwell, Puka Nacua ($3,000) is an intriguing dart throw as well. Jefferson and Atwell were likely to play outside receiver with Kupp on the field, while Nacua could be more of a direct Kupp replacement. Playing a fifth-round draft pick in his first NFL game is pretty thin, but probably worth a stab if multi-entering large tournaments.
Quick Hits
I’m looking to San Francisco for a pair of mid-range options, with Deebo Samuel ($5,500) and Brandon Aiyuk ($4,900) both projecting well. Aiyuk tied for the team lead in receptions when Brock Purdy was under center for the 49ers last year, averaging 13 PPR points per game. Samuel was right behind him with 12.68 receiving points while generally adding some value with a few carries per game as well.
Amari Cooper ($5,800) and Elijah Moore ($3,800) could end up looking like steals at their current salaries by next week. If the Browns end up more pass-heavy due to the game environment and Deshaun Watson plays like he did in Houston, both wideouts should smash their salaries. Those are some big ifs, but those are the types of risks we need to take in GPPs.
Finally, don’t forget about Jaylen Waddle ($7,100) if you’re targeting the Dolphins game. He had a few ceiling games of his own with Tua under center, with 43.10 and 33.60 games last season. He’s slightly less likely than Tyreek Hill to get there but not to the degree ownership and salaries would lead you to believe.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
With Travis Kelce off the main slate (and injured), this is an easy one. Mark Andrews ($6,200) is easily the best raw tight end play on the slate. He leads every projection system in our models in median and ceiling projection.
There’s some reasonable concern about Andrews’ target share this year as the Ravens bring in more talent at wide receiver. However, with a more pass-centric offensive approach likely, Andrews could be fine with a smaller chunk of a bigger pie.
He should also continue to lead the Ravens in targets, especially early in the season. The chemistry is there between him and Lamar Jackson, while it could take some time to develop with Beckham, Flowers, and even Bateman, who missed most of last season.
Paying up for tight end might not be the best way to build this week, but if you’re going to, it should be Andrews.
All that said — Andrews is highly questionable for this game — so be sure to monitor his status leading up to lock. If he’s active, his injury worries may push his ownership down in GPPs.
Value
Tyler Higbee ($4,800) doesn’t quite fit the usual criteria of value tight end — but he’s our best Pts/Sal option in the FantasyLabs models. I made sure to specify above that Van Jefferson led Rams receivers in targets with Kupp out last season — because Higbee led all players in targets.
He’s not the most exciting choice, with just one game over 18 DraftKings points last season. He’s a reliable one by tight end standards, though. Higbee scored in the double digits in half of his games played last season. That game north of 18 points also went for 30 — and was without Kupp — so there is a ceiling case as well.
Still, I’m viewing Higbee as more of a cash game/tighter build option, as there are plenty of options with much higher ceilings for large field GPPs.
Quick Hits
Could this be the year Kyle Pitts ($4,500) finally lives up to his pre-draft hype? He might just have the best quarterback play of his career, and the Falcons, almost by default, will need to throw the ball more. It feels funny expecting a rookie quarterback to be an improvement, but it can’t get much worse than Marcus Mariota last season.
It probably won’t happen this week, but Pitts is still just 22 years old. I’ll be rostering a bit of him every week in case it does happen. Keep in mind, even the great Travis Kelce didn’t become a full-time starter until his third NFL season.
TJ Hockenson ($5,900) is projecting reasonably close to Mark Andrews at a cheaper price. I get the argument, as Hockenson had some big games following his trade to the Vikings last season. Both top tight ends have similar game environments — and somewhat crowded receiver rooms) I suspect the target competition to be a bit harder in Minnesota than in Baltimore, but he’s still a solid pivot.
About once a year, George Kittle ($5,700) pops up with an absolutely massive game. He’s a run-after-the-catch monster and can get it done with absurd efficiency. He hurts his fantasy outlook by being such an effective blocker though, which limits how many routes he gets sent on.
There’s not much rhyme or reason behind when these games happen, so I like to get a few Kittle shares when he’s at low ownership. We’re projecting him at less than five percent this week.
Roster Construction
There are two general lineup formats that are likely to be chalky this week. Those that roster Anthony Richardson and spend up elsewhere — especially at wideout — and those that pay up for Hurts or Jackson.
Personally, I prefer the former for tighter builds. Both Hurts and Jackson have somewhat obvious stacking partners, and I want to see it from Richardson before I buy in. Plus, there are plenty of viable mid-priced or bargain running backs and wide receivers to make fitting the expensive quarterbacks viable.
Going mid-range at quarterback should be somewhat contrarian this week as well and is my preferred strategy for larger field tournaments. Players like Burrow, Herbert, and Tua all have ceilings just as high as the top-end players, just with slightly lower chances to get there.
The mid-range trio all have great stacking options among their pass catchers, with all three teams featuring a duo of strong wide receivers. Those lineups have to pay down at running back and tight end, but that’s where the Colts backfield comes in handy.
Lastly, the Washington Defense ($2,800) should be massively popular this week. They’re drastically underpriced against a bottom-dwelling Cardinals team. As we know, defense scoring is extremely random, though. It’s probably +EV to pivot to almost any other defense — as painful as it may be.
For a more in-depth look at each position, be sure to check out our positional breakdowns by Matt Martin or any of our other NFL Content.
Good luck this week!
