Regular season football is officially back! The Bills steamrolled the Rams on opening night, and we have a 13-game main slate teed up for Sunday.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
Jalen Hurts might not be a real-life stud quarterback, but he undoubtedly fits that description in fantasy. He ranked sixth at the position in fantasy points per game last year, thanks largely to his ability with his legs. He churned out an average of 52.3 rushing yards per game, and he tacked on a position-leading 10 rushing touchdowns.
The big question with Hurts is will he improve as a passer? If he does, he has the potential for a monster year. He’ll have the benefit of throwing to A.J. Brown this season, giving him an alpha wideout for the first time in his career. DeVonta Smith also had a solid rookie year, and Dallas Goedert is a plus option at tight end.
Hurts also draws one of the best possible matchups in Week 1. He’s taking on the Lions, who were 29th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA last year. The Eagles are currently implied for 26.5 points, which is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate.
Value
Derek Carr has had some really good seasons recently. He’s been highly efficient, averaging 7.8 adjusted yards per attempt over the past three years, but he’s been unable to join the elite ranks in fantasy.
Perhaps that will change this season. The Raiders brought Carr’s former college teammate Davante Adams, who might be the best receiver in football. He piled up statistics playing alongside Aaron Rodgers, scoring 29 touchdowns in his past 30 regular season games.
With Adams in the fold, Carr now boasts an outstanding trio of pass-catchers. He should be able to do some damage against the Chargers, who will be missing their top cornerback in J.C. Jackson. This game also has the potential for plenty of offense given the 52.5-point total and the 3.5-point spread.
Quick Hits
Lamar Jackson didn’t get a new contract before the start of the year, so he’s officially betting on himself. I’m not in the business of betting against Jackson, especially in a juicy spot. He has the potential to do serious damage vs. the Jets, who were dead last in defensive DVOA last season.
Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs lead the slate with a 29.5-point implied team total. It remains to be seen if the offense will be quite as explosive without Tyreek Hill, but Patrick Mahomes is still one of the best players in the league. He also has a genius offensive head coach in Andy Reid, and Travis Kelce and Juju Smith-Schuster are still outstanding primary options. He owns the top floor projection in THE BLITZ, making him one of the safest options at the position.
Daniel Jones is dirt-cheap at just $5,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a position-high Bargain Rating of 97%. Matt Martin makes the case for Jones in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
Is it me, or has DraftKings forgotten how good Christian McCaffrey is? He’s priced at just $8,500, which is an egregious number for him. He’s had a comparable price tag in 17 previous contests, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.49 in those outings (per the Trends tool).
At his best, McCaffrey combines the rushing production of a high-end running back with the receiving production of a wide receiver. Only Alvin Kamara had a larger target market share last season, and no one was targeted on a higher percentage of routes run.
His matchup vs. the Browns is not a good one, but McCaffrey is as matchup-proof as it gets. If he’s healthy – and there are no indications that he isn’t – this is simply too cheap a price for the best player in fantasy.
Value
Dameon Pierce was one of the breakout stars of the preseason. He was easily the Texans’ best running back, and he was so impressive that the team decided to part ways with Marlon Mack. Rex Burkhead is still around on passing downs, but the coast is clear for Pierce to handle as many carries as possible.
Pierce struggled to break out in college, never receiving more than 106 carries in a year at Florida. However, that didn’t stop the Texans from drafting him in the fourth round. He ran with power and vision during the preseason, averaging 7.8 yards per carry. You don’t want to read too much into preseason stats, but he looks the part.
There are some game script concerns with Pearce, who figures to be a sizable underdog for most of the year. While that might be an issue in the future, it’s not a huge concern at just $4,800. He’s a safe bet for double-digit carries, and he ranks third in projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs projections.
Quick Hits
Najee Harris had an interesting rookie season. He wasn’t particularly impressive from an efficiency standpoint, but he commanded one of the largest workloads in the league. He led all players with 381 touches, and the Steelers offense could be a bit more efficient with Ben Roethlisberger out of the picture. Harris owns the top projected Plus/Minus in THE BLITZ.
The Packers have a ton of question marks at receiver, with Adams gone and Allen Lazard doubtful. Expect the running backs to pick up some of the slack. Aaron Jones has been particularly impressive in the past with Adams sidelined, and he was targeted 11 times in his lone game without Adams last season. Even if he loses some work to A.J. Dillon, Jones could still see a boost in value due to his work in the passing game.
J.K. Dobbins is currently doubtful for the Ravens, while Gus Edwards is on the PUP. If Dobbins is unable to go, it will leave Mike Davis as the Ravens’ lead running back in a fantastic spot. The Ravens are favored by nearly a full touchdown vs. the Jets, so it’s one of the best rushing game scripts of the week. That would make Davis a slam-dunk value option.
Jonathan Taylor is another running back with a great potential game script this week. Matt Martin highlights last year’s top rusher in our Running Back Breakdown.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
Paying up at receiver is an interesting strategy this week. There are plenty of strong midrange and value options, so most people will likely opt to pay up at running back and tight end. That could result in Davante Adams being under-owned.
That would be a mistake. There are obviously questions about how he’ll fare away from Rodgers, but he couldn’t ask for a better matchup in his Raiders’ debut. Without Jackson, the Chargers have absolutely no answer for him at corner. Their top three options at the position all ranked 75th or worse last season per Pro Football Focus.
Adams is currently projected for just 12.45% ownership in THE BLITZ, making him one of my favorite tournament options of the week. Pairing him with Carr should also be a low-owned stack with plenty of upside.
Value
Michael Pittman quietly turned in an excellent season in 2021-22. Despite catching passes from Carson Wentz, Pittman piled up 88 catches for 1,082 yards and six touchdowns. That was good enough to finish as the 17th-highest-scoring player at the position in PPR leagues.
Pittman gets a sizable upgrade at quarterback this season. Matt Ryan may not be quite as good as he was in his prime, but he’s still put up solid efficiency numbers over the past few years. He should get to put his remaining talent on display behind the Colts’ offensive line, which is one of the best in the league. The Texans are also a strong matchup, ranking merely 22nd in pass defense DVOA last year.
Pittman is cheap enough to be considered a value, but he’s also talented enough to serve as your top receiver if you’re spending down at the position.
Quick Hits
One of the best things about Week 1 is that the pricing comes out super early. That means that there are often a few receivers who wind up massively underpriced for one reason or another. Wan’Dale Robinson, Romeo Doubs, and Jahan Dotson are three players who fit that description this year. All three should see sizable roles in their rookie seasons, and they don’t need to do much to pay off their current salaries.
Juju Smith-Schuster is expected to serve as the No. 1 receiver for the Chiefs, and there is obviously plenty of value in that role. Smith-Schuster has been plagued by injuries and poor quarterback play in recent years, but he was once considered one of the best young receivers in football. He racked up 111 catches and 1,426 receiving yards in his second pro season, and he’s still just 25 years old. This could be the cheapest he is all year.
Joe Flacco will start the year at quarterback for the Jets, and he made one start last year. He targeted Elijah Moore a whopping 11 times in that contest, and Moore responded with eight catches for 141 yards and a score. Moore enters the year with big expectations, and he’s another player who only gets more expensive as the season progresses.
How will Tyreek Hill fare in his first game with his new team? Matt Martin takes a look in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
Given the uncertainty with the Chiefs’ receiving corps, Travis Kelce could be poised for a monster year. He was quietly a bit disappointing in 2021-22, but disappointing for Kelce is still very good. He finished as the No. 2 TE in fantasy thanks to 92 catches, 1,125 yards, and nine touchdowns.
Kelce is also a bit cheaper than usual at just $6,600 on DraftKings. That has historically been too cheap for Kelce, who has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.39 with a comparable salary. That includes a Plus/Minus of +5.21 last year.
The Cardinals were very tough against opposing tight ends last year, but Kelce isn’t a traditional tight end. It’s hard not to love him in this spot.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Zach Ertz would be very appealing if he’s able to suit up. He’s currently questionable, but the Cardinals are going to be without DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore in Week 1. Ertz increased his target share to 24.0% in games without Hopkins last year, and that was with Christian Kirk posting a 19.0% target share of his own. Marquise Brown will absorb some of those targets, but Ertz should still be extremely busy if he’s active.
He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus per THE BLITZ, and he’s a cheap way to get some exposure to the game with the highest total this week.
Quick Hits
Kyle Pitts is one of the most talented athletes at the history of the tight end position, and he could be poised for a massive year. He has minimal competition for targets, especially with rookie first-rounder Drake London questionable. Pitts was a bit disappointing as a rookie, but tight end is a notoriously tough position to make an immediate impact. He should be much better in year two.
Irv Smith Jr. missed all of last year, but he’s a potential breakout candidate this season. He split the tight end snaps with Kyle Rudolph in his first two seasons, but he has those responsibilities to himself in 2021-22. He averaged 16.1 yards per reception in college, and his 4.63 40-yard dash time puts him in the 86th percentile at the position (per Player Profiler).
Dallas Goedert saw a significant uptick in targets after Ertz departed for the Cardinals last year. That includes a 12-target performance in his final game of the year. He’s affordable at just $4,500 on DraftKings against a Lions’ squad that ranked 29th in DVOA against the position last year.
Lineup Construction
I’m leaning towards a modified balanced build for cash games this week. There are a lot of players in the $5k-$7k range that stand out as very appealing.
However, my lineups are starting with McCaffrey. He’s a cheat code when healthy, allowing you to roster essentially a running back and a wide receiver at just one position.
Kelce and Pittman are the next two guys into my lineup. They’re simply too cheap as their team’s top projected pass-catchers. Juju Smith-Schuster also makes the cut, giving me plenty of access to the Chiefs’ massive implied team total.
I’ll finish off my receiving corps with one of the $3k players. I’m currently leaning toward Doubs simply because he has the benefit of playing with Rodgers. That said, Robinson actually stands out as the better option based on projections.
Plugging in Pierce at RB2 and a relatively cheap defense gives you tons of flexibility at your quarterback at flex spots. Hurts and Jackson are my preferred targets at quarterback, while Harris, Jones, and Joe Mixon are excellent flex plays.
That said, remember to keep an eye on Dobbins: If he’s out, Davis would become a virtual must-play in cash games.
The big difference on FanDuel is that Kelce is much more expensive. You can swap him out for Pitts, who owns a Bargain Rating of 97%.
The other big change is that the wide receivers stand out as much better values on FanDuel. Justin Jefferson and Adams both have Bargain Ratings of 95%, so they are definitely worth considering for your cash game lineups.
That kind of roster construction would be preferred if Davis gets the start for the Ravens, and pairing him with Pierce would give you two strong options at cheap price points.
As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.
Make sure to also take advantage of all the excellent written content that will be produced prior to kickoff.
Good luck this week!
