The 2019 NFL regular season is upon us. This Sunday, Sep. 8, we have a full 12-game main slate that kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.
In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who have caught my eye the most while I’ve researched with our large suite of analytical DFS Tools. Specifically, I break down the guys who stand out in the FantasyLabs Models.
For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.
Let’s start with the two wide receivers at the top of the salary scale.
Odell Beckham Jr.: Cleveland Browns (-5.5) vs. Tennessee Titans, 45.5 Over/Under
- DraftKings: $8,100
- FanDuel: $8,200
In the words of The Zombies, “This will be our year, it took a long time to come.”
For a half decade, one of the greatest receivers of our era was shackled to an overrated and over-the-hill quarterback and a series of unimaginative and curmudgeonly head coaches. But despite his circumstances, OBJ was transcendent, turning overthrows into receptions and short passes into long touchdowns.
Even though he has been in the league for five years, Beckham has played in just 59 games, missing 26.3% of his team’s schedule. As a result, his career numbers, though good, don’t seem as voluminously impressive as they otherwise might.
But in NFL history, no wide receiver has had more receptions or FanDuel points through 59 games than OBJ’s 390 and 1,020.2. Not Jerry Rice. Not Randy Moss. Not Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald. No one.
Perhaps it’s fair to wonder if OBJ is still the dynamic player he was a few years ago, when he became one of just three players in NFL history — along with Moss and John Jefferson — to open his career with three straight seasons of 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns receiving. After all, OBJ has played just 16 games over the past two years.
But across those games Beckham still managed 102 receptions, 1,354 yards and nine touchdowns receiving, to say nothing of the 27 rushing yards he added or the two pass attempts he completed for 106 yards and two touchdowns.
And last year at the time of his injury, Beckham was firmly in the top four with a 0.42 market share of air yards and 0.28 market share of targets. Beckham is almost certainly still a top-tier receiver.
And now he’s united with swashbuckling second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield, iconoclastic first-year head coach Freddie Kitchens and Air Raid-yielding offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
To quote Jefferson Airplane quoting the Dormouse, “Feed your head.”
This will be an intriguing matchup for OBJ and the Browns. Last year the Titans were No. 3 in the league with just 18.9 points allowed per game, and they were No. 5 with a 90.2 coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus).
Based on how the Titans deployed him last year, 2017 first-round cornerback Adoree’ Jackson seems likely to shadow OBJ in Week 1 — perhaps with some help over the top from All-Pro safety Kevin Byard — but that seems like a matchup Beckham can win. In Week 11 last year, Jackson tailed T.Y. Hilton on 77.8% of his routes, and Hilton utterly eviscerated him, converting all eight of his targets into receptions and putting up 146 yards and two touchdowns. It’s not for nothing that OBJ has a position-high ceiling projection on DraftKings.
And if the Titans choose not to use Jackson in shadow coverage, that might be even better for Beckham, who would run a number of his routes against Patriots castoffs Malcolm Butler on the outside and Logan Ryan in the slot.
However the Titans defend him, Beckham should be able to make his way.
But there is an obvious issue with rostering OBJ this week: Everyone wants him in their lineups. No one wants to miss out on the potential of what he could do in his first game with Mayfield and the Browns. There’s definitely a case of OBJ FOMO going around. Unsurprisingly, we’re projecting Beckham to have a position-high ownership rate, and as enticing as Beckham is, his popularity might make him hard to roster in guaranteed prize pools.
If you choose to go with him in tournaments, be sure to differentiate your lineups elsewhere. And maybe concentrate your OBJ exposure to FanDuel, where he has a position-high 97% Bargain Rating: If you’re going to roster a guy who’s popular, you might as well do so at a relative discount.
And for GPPs, you might want to use our Lineup Builder to stack Beckham with Mayfield. If you think OBJ is going to go off, it makes sense to leverage his correlation with his quarterback.
Julio Jones: Atlanta Falcons (+4) at Minnesota Vikings, 48.0 O/U
As the Grey Lady says, “If you have to ask, you’ll never know.”
Last year, Julio led the league with 1,677 yards receiving. In fact, he’s progressively led the league in receiving over the past five years.
The NFL leader in receiving yardage over the past 1-5 years…
2018: Julio – 1,677 ✅
2017-18: Julio – 3,121
2016-18: Julio – 4,530
2015-18: Julio – 6,401
2014-18: Julio – 7,994 ✅✅✅✅✅ pic.twitter.com/2nsDV6kZ3J— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) September 5, 2019
His dominance is now so routine that it’s almost dumbfoundingly boring.
I know, I know, he doesn’t score touchdowns, as #NeverJulio Twitter is so fond of reminding us. But here’s the thing.
- Julio has still averaged 6.2 touchdowns per season over the past half decade. For a guy who doesn’t score, that’s a respectable number of touchdowns.
- Julio doesn’t need to score touchdowns in order to be one of the best receivers in any given slate.
Since morphing into his top-shelf self in 2014, he’s managed to play as the No. 3 fantasy wide receiver, averaging 21.1 DraftKings points despite scoring only 0.43 touchdowns per game (including playoffs). He’s the all-time NFL leader with 96.7 receiving yards per game. Even when he doesn’t score, Jones is good enough to have a top-five week at the position.
And in his 26 regular-season games with a touchdown since 2014, he’s rocked out with an obscene 28.8 points per game in point-per-reception scoring.
Perhaps no stat more clearly highlights his superiority than yards per route run (per PFF).
- 2018: 2.93 (1st)
- 2017: 3.08 (1st)
- 2016: 3.12 (1st)
- 2015: 3.04 (1st)
- 2014: 2.72 (4th)
- 2013: 2.75 (1st)
It’s almost as if Julio’s been the best receiver in the league for a long time, no?
But of course there’s a catch for Week 1: The spot is not ideal.
Julio has never had notable home/away splits, so it’s ostensibly not a big deal for him to be on the road, but over the past three years, his quarterback Matt Ryan has been the most location-influenced passer in the league (per Sharp Football Stats).
- Passing Success Rate: 58% – home, 51% – away
- Yards per Attempt: 8.8 – home, 8.0 – away
- Passer Rating: 111.1 – home, 102.8 – away
It helps that U.S. Bank Stadium is covered: Throughout his career, Ryan has been better in a dome than outdoors, with 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt inside vs. 7.2 outside.
But the main problem is that the Falcons are playing at that specific venue. Under defensive-minded HC Mike Zimmer, the Vikings over the past five years have been the league’s least inviting home team, holding opponents to league-low marks with 20.2 completions, 195.8 net passing yards and 1.08 touchdowns passing per game.
Julio can dust any opponent, but his ceiling will be lowered if Ryan struggles, and it’s not hard to imagine that happening. Last year, the Vikings were No. 5 in pass DVOA with a -9.7% mark (per Football Outsiders), and they have a solid secondary, especially with safeties Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris defending deep.
And of course there’s No. 1 cornerback Xavier Rhodes, who is likely to shadow Julio. Although he regressed last season and was abused in Week 2 by Davante Adams (9-67-1 receiving on 12 targets), Xavier was still solid in shadow coverage last year, holding almost everyone except for Adams in check.
And the Vikings collectively held opposing wide receiver units to just 28.7 DraftKings points per game, tied for the second-lowest mark in the league.
In his three games against Zimmer’s Vikings, Julio hasn’t impressed.
- Week 4, 2014 (at home): 14.2 DraftKings points, 6-82-0 receiving on eight targets
- Week 12, 2015 (on road): 10.6 DraftKings points, 5-56-0 receiving on seven targets
- Week 13, 2017 (on road): 4.4 DraftKings points, 2-24-0 receiving on six targets
I have a world of respect for Julio. He has the highest median projection among all receivers in our DraftKings Models. But he’s too risky for cash games and maybe even GPPs, given his high salary and ownership projection.
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the prudent action is probably to fade Julio altogether. Pay up elsewhere.
Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Adam Thielen: $6,800 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel
- Stefon Diggs: $6,700 DraftKings; $7,200 FanDuel
- Curtis Samuel: $4,200 DraftKings; $5,900 FanDuel
Adam Thielen & Stefon Diggs: Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 48.0 O/U
On the Week 1 NFL Fantasy Flex, Jennings highlights the two Vikings wide receivers as players who have moved up his rankings and in whom he has a strong interest for daily fantasy.
In fact, Jennings is pretty bullish on the entire Vikings offense for this game.
For the past three years, Thielen and Diggs have been one of the league’s best receiving duos.
- Adam Thielen (50 games, including playoffs): 16.3 DraftKings points, +2.64 Plus/Minus
- Stefon Diggs (44 games, including playoffs): 16.5 DraftKings points, +2.22 Plus/Minus
The two aren’t exactly interchangeable, but last year they were pretty comparable.
- Adam Thielen (16 games): 18.0 DraftKings points, +2.97 Plus/Minus, 85.8 yards and 0.56 touchdowns on 9.7 targets and 7.1 receptions
- Stefon Diggs (15 games): 18.6 DraftKings points, +2.71 Plus/Minus, 68.1 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 9.9 targets and 6.8 receptions
The main difference between the two is that last year Thielen ran 57.1% of his routes from the slot while Diggs ran 22.5%. That’s pretty much it. They both had similarly high per-game market shares of targets and low average depths of target. And they were both efficient at turning targets into receptions and receptions into yards, as measured by RACR (Receiver Air Conversion Ratio, created by Josh Hermsmeyer of FiveThirtyEight and AirYards.com).
- Adam Thielen: 0.26 target share, 9.5 aDOT, 0.94 RACR
- Stefon Diggs: 0.27 target share, 8.6 aDOT, 0.81 RACR
They both finished in the top 12 at the position in total targets and fantasy points per game. It’s hard to quibble with what they accomplished last year.
But this ain’t last year.
There are some serious concerns for their 2019 outlook.
For the first 14 weeks of the 2018 season, the Vikings were the second-most pass-heavy team in the league. Under offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, they had a pass-play rate of 67.0%. But HC Mike Zimmer fired DeFilippo, in part because he wanted the team to run more.
And in Weeks 15-17, the team ranked No. 9 with a 48.0% run rate under interim coordinator Kevin Stefanski. They went from running 42.8 pass plays per game to 30. And the reduction in volume definitely impacted Thielen and Diggs.
- Adam Thielen (3 games): 8.0 DraftKings points, -10.07 Plus/Minus, 45.7 yards and zero touchdowns on 4.0 targets and 3.3 receptions
- Stefon Diggs (3 games): 14.5 DraftKings points, -1.91 Plus/Minus, 35.3 yards and 1.0 touchdowns on 7.7 targets and 4.7 receptions
The sample is small, but it’s all we have to go on, and it indicates that both Thielen and Diggs could see significantly fewer targets and thus fantasy points this season, because Stefanski is now the full-time coordinator, and he seems almost certain to continue to emphasize the running game, especially since the Vikings brought in rushing guru Gary Kubiak to serve as an offensive assistant.
But for Week 1 at least, Thielen and Diggs could still do damage. Last year the Falcons were 29th in pass DVOA with a 21.7% mark, and they allowed opposing wide receivers to average 41.4 DraftKings points per game, the fifth-highest total in the league.
Note: Be sure to keep an eye on Diggs’ health status. He misses 1-3 games every year with various leg issues, and he popped up on the Wednesday injury report with a bothersome hamstring.
If he enters the weekend still on the injury list, he’s probably a full fade for me. Diggs has played through six games with an injury tag, and he’s averaged just 37.3 yards and 0.17 touchdowns on 4.3 receptions.
If Diggs misses Week 1, then Thielen goes from being a strategic GPP play to a real option in cash games. In his three games without Diggs over the past two years, Thielen has averaged 10.7 targets.
Thielen and Diggs are both tied for the position lead with seven Pro Trends at DraftKings, where Thielen is the No. 1 option in the Bales and Raybon Models and Diggs is the No. 1 option in the Freedman Model.
And Diggs also has a position-high +3.15 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, where he’s the unanimous top wide receiver in all our Pro Models.
Curtis Samuel: Carolina Panthers (+2.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams, 50.0 O/U
Samuel is simply way too cheap on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 option in the Jennings, Levitan, Koerner and SportsGeek Models.
We’re projecting him for high ownership, which makes him less attractive in tournaments, but if you’re looking to pay down at the position in cash games, Samuel is a strong option.
Samuel hasn’t done all that much to this point in his career: A variety of injuries have sidelined him for stretches of his first two seasons. But entering the league, Samuel was a very Percy Harvin-esque type of prospect.
- Attributes: 5-foot-11, 196 pounds, 4.31-second 40-yard dash, 21 years old
- Production: 97-771-8 rushing, 74-865-7 receiving in final year at Ohio State
And when he played last year, he had a Harvin-like stat line: 39-494-5 receiving on 65 targets and 8-84-2 rushing in 13 games.
Samuel didn’t start playing a majority of the offensive snaps until Week 12, but from that point on he was a full-time contributor alongside No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Moore, and they had surprisingly similar usage and production.
- D.J. Moore (Weeks 12-17): 10.1 DraftKings points per game, 364 yards and zero touchdowns from scrimmage on 43 targets, 25 receptions and five carries
- Curtis Samuel (Weeks 12-17): 11.6 DraftKings points per game, 356 yards and two touchdowns from scrimmage on 42 targets, 22 receptions and four carries
Really, what’s the difference between these guys? A couple of random touchdowns and a few receptions?
It’s worth mentioning that two of these games were played without quarterback Cam Newton, and in the other four games, he really wasn’t himself because of his lingering shoulder injury. That definitely could’ve impacted the way he distributed the ball and whom he targeted.
But there’s a very real chance that the difference between Moore and Samuel is not nearly as great as the market believes. Maybe the difference is nonexistent — which means that this week we have the opportunity to reach for Moore-level production at a Samuel-priced discount.
There’s a word for that: #Arbitrage.
Samuel’s matchup isn’t great: Last year the Rams were No. 4 with a 90.0 PFF coverage grade. But Samuel ran 25.7% of his routes out of the slot from Week 12 on, so he should be able to avoid outside cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters for stretches.
In his six-game sample to close the year, Samuel was priced between $3,900 and $4,500 on DraftKings, and he hit his salary-based expectation five times, putting up a +3.94 Plus/Minus.
If Samuel gets the seven targets he averaged last year as a starter, he has a good chance to return value.
Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,900 DK, $7,900 FD): Evans is one of just three wide receivers in NFL history to open his career with five straight 1,000-yard seasons, and he’s facing a 49ers defense that was dead last with a 37.5 PFF coverage grade in 2018.
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,600 DK, $7,600 FD): TyFreak has a position-high eight Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he has averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game (including playoffs) since becoming a full-time contributor in Week 10 of the 2017 season.
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,300 DK, $7,700 FD): Allen has averaged 9.3 targets per game over the past half decade and leads all receivers with his floor projection on FanDuel, where also has a position-high 99% Leverage Score thanks to his low ownership and high ceiling projections.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts ($6,600 DK, $7,700 FD): Hilton has a tough shadow matchup with cornerback Casey Hayward and is without retired quarterback Andrew Luck, but he still leads all receivers with his FanDuel ceiling projection.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,200 DK, $6,900 FD): Godwin has more than 24.0 DraftKings points in two of his six career games with at least 80% of the offensive snaps, and he has a soft matchup against the 49ers.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks ($6,000 DK, $6,800 FD): Lockett is coming off his first season with 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns, he should have more targets than he had last year thanks to Doug Baldwin’s retirement, and he gets to go against a Bengals defense that was bottom-eight in 2018 with a 15.7% pass DVOA.
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,800 DK, $6,900 FD): Boyd is in line for a massive boost in targets with A.J. Green (ankle) on the sideline, and he leads all receivers with his floor projection and +2.86 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Dante Pettis, San Francisco 49ers ($5,400 DK, $6,500 FD): Pettis closed his 2018 rookie campaign with a six-game streak in which he averaged 14.7 DraftKings points per game, and he’s facing a Bucs defense that was No. 30 last year with a 24.3% pass DVOA.
Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals ($4,700 DK, $6,000 FD): Kirk averaged 10.1 DraftKings points last year across his nine games with at least 70% of the offensive snaps — with Sam Bradford and Josh Rosen at quarterback — and now with Kyler Murray throwing him the ball he gets to go against a Lions defense that was No. 31 in 2018 with a 24.7% pass DVOA.
DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles ($4,500 DK, $5,600 FD): D-Jax in the past half decade has put up 96.3 yards receiving in games with a touchdown, scoring in 20 of 66 games over that time, and now he finds himself in the ultimate “This guy is scoring a touchdown” Narrative Street scenario: Reunion game with his first team AND revenge game against his second team.
John Brown, Buffalo Bills ($4,300 DK, $5,500 FD): The Abolitionist is the perfect downfield specialist to catch strong-armed bombs from The Flame-Throwing Arsonist, and the Jets allowed a top-two mark of 45.9 DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers last year.
Miles Boykin, Baltimore Ravens ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD): Boykin is the stone minimum, but he has a non-zero chance to lead the team in air yards and maybe even targets, and the Dolphins last year were No. 30 with a 57.0 PFF coverage grade and are already in full-on tank mode.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks
- Running Backs
- Tight Ends (on Thursday)
For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Julio Jones
Photo credit: USATodaySports
