The 2019 NFL regular season is upon us. This Sunday, Sept. 8, we have a full 12-game main slate that kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.
In this piece, I highlight the tight ends who have caught my eye the most while I’ve researched with our large suite of analytical DFS Tools. Specifically, I break down the guys who stand out in the FantasyLabs Models.
For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Travis Kelce: $7,100 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel
- Zach Ertz: $6,100 DraftKings; $7,100 FanDuel
- Hunter Henry: $3,900 DraftKings; $6,100 FanDuel
- Austin Hooper: $3,200 DraftKings; $5,500 FanDuel
- Mark Andrews: $3,000 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
Travis Kelce: Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 52 O/U
In 2018, Kelce had a historic fantasy season for a tight end. Not surprising.
Dating back to his first All-Pro campaign in 2016, Kelce leads all tight ends with 13.1 FanDuel points per game, and he’s provided strong salary-adjusted value with his +2.79 Plus/Minus.
Last year, the Chiefs ranked first in scoring at 35.3 points per game, and Kelce was a key contributor to their success, ranking top-two among all tight ends with his 150 targets, 103 receptions, 1,336 yards receiving, 1,401 air yards, 552 yards after the catch and 10 touchdowns in the regular season.
There’s really not much to say about Kelce. He’s #Zeus.
In theory, Kelce has a tough matchup. Last year, in what was a relatively down season, the Jaguars held opposing teams to 19.8 points per game. And in 2017, with the same core of key defensive players, they limited opposing teams to a bottom-two mark of 16.8 points per game.
With a unit anchored by edge rushers Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue, tackle Marcell Dareus, linebacker Myles Jack and shutdown cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, the Jags should once again be potent on defense.
But I’m not that worried about Kelce. Even if the Jags do slow down the Chiefs, Kelce will probably still get his.
Last year in an easy 30-14 win over the Jags in Week 5, Kelce had a stellar 5-100-0 receiving line on eight targets.
There’s nothing horrible about safeties Ronnie Harrison and Jarrod Wilson and linebacker Myles Jack. But last year they all had below-average coverage grades (per Pro Football Focus).
- Ronnie Harrison: 68.9
- Jarrod Wilson: 68.7
- Myles Jack: 66.5
And below-average play isn’t going to cut it against a player like Kelce.
Last year, Kelce had at least five targets in each game. Only thrice did he have fewer than 8.0 FanDuel points (including playoffs). If you don’t mind paying up at the position, Kelce is a justifiable option in cash games: He’s the No. 1 receiving option on the team with a slate-high implied Vegas total of 27.5.
For guaranteed prize pools, we’re projecting Kelce to have a position-high ownership rate, so if you go with him in tournaments, be sure to differentiate your lineups elsewhere. But Kelce is still viable in GPPs: He’s one of the few players at the position with a 100-yard, two-touchdown game within his realistic range of outcomes.
Is it a problem that the Chiefs are on the road instead of at Arrowhead Stadium?
No, it’s not a problem at all.
With head coach Andy Reid (since 2013), no home team has made under bettors more money than the Chiefs have with their 33-18-1 under record (including playoffs), good for an A-graded 26.1% return on investment (per Bet Labs).
The outdoor Arrowhead Stadium is a hard place to play, and the Chiefs actually did better offensively on the road than at home last year.
- Chiefs on road (eight games): 38.3 points per game, 325.3 yards and 3.88 touchdowns passing
- Chiefs at home (eight games): 32.4 points per game, 294.1 yards and 2.38 touchdowns passing
Throughout the Reid era, the Chiefs are easily last in the NFL with their offensive home/road differential of -2.6 points per game.
Even though the Chiefs have a tough, road matchup, Kelce is rosterable, especially on FanDuel, where he leads the position with his median, ceiling and floor projections and is tied for first with six Pro Trends and a nice 69% Bargain Rating.
Kelce is the No. 1 FanDuel tight end in the Koerner and SportsGeek Models.
Zach Ertz: Philadelphia Eagles (-10) vs. Washington Redskins, 45 O/U
Last year, Ertz had an incredible season. Among all players (not just tight ends), he was No. 2 with 116 receptions and No. 6 with 156 targets. He was No. 4 with 27 red-zone targets. He was the team leader with 1,163 yards receiving, 1,122 air yards, 351 yards after the catch and eight touchdowns.
Ertz is the modern-day prototype tight end: Last year he played all over the formation, playing snaps inline (501), in the slot (425) and out wide (166).
And yet even with all that, he wasn’t a top-two tight end in FanDuel scoring.
- Travis Kelce (18 games): 14.8 points
- George Kittle (16 games): 13.4 points
- Zach Ertz (18 games): 13.2
I’m not trying to rain on the parade that was Ertz’s fantastic 2018 campaign — but so much broke his way last year. Ertz had perfect health, while No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and pass-catching back Darren Sproles respectively missed three and six games. Ertz had relatively little competition for targets.
This year, though, Ertz will have as much competition as he can stand.
Alshon and Sproles are both healthy. Wide receiver Nelson Agholor is still on the roster, and wide receiver DeSean Jackson has returned to the team. Wide receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and running back Miles Sanders have been added via the draft. And second-year up-and-coming tight end Dallas Goedert could see much more playing time in two-tight end sets.
It will be a minor miracle if Ertz approaches his 2018 numbers. Last year, he had career-highs in games played, targets, receptions, touchdowns and catch rate. Somewhere, regression will strike. Expectations must be adjusted down.
But there’s nothing wrong with the 800-ish yards and four-ish touchdowns Ertz racked up in each of the three seasons before last year’s outlier performance: He was a top-three tight end in 2017.
He’s still a top-three tight end now. And he’s in a good spot. Although safety Landon Collins is in his first year with the Redskins, Ertz often faced Collins as a member of the Giants, and Ertz regularly dominated Collins and his crew.
- Week 12, 2018 (at home): 7-91-1 on eight targets
- Week 6, 2018 (at Giants): 7-43-1 on nine targets
- Week 15, 2017 (at Giants): 6-56-1 on nine targets
- Week 3, 2017 (at home): 8-55-1 on 10 targets
- Week 16, 2016 (at home): 2-33-0 on two targets
- Week 9, 2016 (at Giants): 8-97-0 on eight targets
- Week 17, 2015 (at Giants): 9-152-0 on eight targets
- Week 6, 2015 (at home): 4-43-0 on seven targets
All told, Ertz has put up 13.1 FanDuel points per game against Collins and the Giants over the past four years with a +4.48 Plus/Minus and 87.5% Consistency Rating.
Although Collins is generally considered to be a good defender, this has historically been an incredibly positive matchup for Ertz.
Additionally, the Eagles are big home favorites, and since Ertz became a key contributor in 2014, he has been his best when the Eagles are laying points at home.
- Home favorite (33 games): 66.7 yards and 0.48 touchdowns on 6.0 receptions and 8.4 targets
- All other situations (42 games): 51.3 yards and 0.21 touchdowns on 4.9 receptions and 7.1 targets
Over the past half decade, Ertz has averaged 12.5 FanDuel points per game as a home favorite with a +4.70 Plus/Minus and 72.7% Consistency Rating.
Regression is almost certain to come for Ertz in 2019.
But in the words of Aragorn: “It is not this day.”
Ertz is the No. 1 FanDuel tight end in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Raybon and Freedman Models.
Hunter Henry: Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts, 44.5 O/U
The 2015 John Mackey Award winner as the top tight end in college, Henry entered the league in 2016 as a potential-laden second-rounder stuck behind the remnants of long-time Charger and future Hall-of-Famer Antonio Gates — and then he proceeded to put up 1,057 yards and score 12 touchdowns in his first two seasons.
Entering 2018, Henry was poised to break out — and then he suffered an ACL tear in the preseason. His season was done before it even began.
But now he enters 2019 healthy, and he has a great matchup for Week 1.
For as much as the Colts improved on defense last year, they were still exploited frequently by tight ends, who amassed a league-high 106 receptions and 1,234 yards against them. While free safety Malik Hooker had a solid 82.2 PFF coverage grade last year, strong safety Clayton Geathers had a below-average mark of 63.6.
In total, the Colts allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends: 16.2 per game.
With Gates and wide receiver Tyrell Williams gone and running back Melvin Gordon holding out, there are 176 targets from last season available for redistribution, and Henry’s going to get a healthy serving.
Henry is the No. 1 DraftKings tight end in the Koerner and SportsGeek Models.
Austin Hooper: Atlanta Falcons (+4) at Minnesota Vikings, 48 O/U
I must admit I’ve never been much of a Hooper fan. His acting was too over the top in “Speed.”
Oops, wrong guy.
Still, not a fan.
Last year he had his best season yet in the NFL, making the Pro Bowl and setting new personal highs with 88 targets, 71 receptions, 660 yards and four touchdowns. The trajectory of his career is still pointing up.
But he’s developing far too slowly for me to muster any real enthusiasm for him.
The primary problem is that while other young tight ends have started to carve out difference-making roles on their teams, Hooper seems like just a guy stuck fighting with Mohamed Sanu, Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith for targets after Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley have gotten theirs.
And yet, if his career trajectory holds, he could have a season approaching 80 receptions, 800 yards and six touchdowns — and that’s not at all insignificant.
And he’s in a workable spot for Week 1. Although U.S. Bank Stadium is extremely unfriendly to visiting pass games (see my notes on this in the NFL Week 1 fantasy WR breakdown), the Vikings last year were No. 30 with a 22.6% pass DVOA against tight ends.
Most importantly, thanks to his relative unsexiness, Hooper will have limited ownership, which makes him an attractive and contrarian option for tournaments. You could do a lot worse.
Hooper is the No. 1 tight end in the Raybon Model for DraftKings, where he leads the position with a +3.20 Projected Plus/Minus and 94% Leverage Score thanks to his low ownership and high ceiling projections.
Mark Andrews: Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins, 38.5 O/U
Like Henry, Andrews won the Mackey Award in college as the nation’s top tight end and flashed in his first NFL season after being drafted with a Day 2 pick.
In quarterback Lamar Jackson’s eight starts (including playoffs), Andrews was No. 1 on the team with 339 yards receiving and No. 2 with 16 receptions. Those numbers aren’t huge, but it’s hard to ignore a rookie tight end who has a 25.1% market share of his quarterback’s passing yards, especially when he has an elite average depth of target of 11.7 yards and is a legitimate downfield threat.
The sample is small, but in L-Jax’s starts, Andrews led the Ravens with 14.1 yards per target. That number will regress in 2019, but it speaks to the big-play ability Andrews has.
The drawbacks with Andrews are obvious.
He played just 35.4% of the offensive snaps in Jackson’s starts, and based on how the Ravens used him this preseason, he still seems to be just a part-time player. And if he’s not on the field for a supermajority of the snaps, his upside will be severely limited.
On top of that, Jackson isn’t an accurate passer: He completed just 58.2% of his attempts last year. It’s hard to trust a player who relies on the quarterback when that guy struggles to throw the ball.
Finally, the Ravens had a 1940s-esque 61.1% run rate in Jackson’s starts. Given that the team made the playoffs and went 6-2 with this strategy, they will likely remain committed to the running game: They managed 5.0 yards per carry and a 54% rushing success rate, and they also promoted dual-threat run-game aficionado Greg Roman to offensive coordinator.
In a run-heavy system, Andrews will have restricted target opportunities.
But I still think there’s room for optimism with Andrews.
For one, Jackson could improve as a passer. After all, he improved each year of his college career.
On top of that, Andrews is likely to develop and build upon his 2018 campaign. It’s rare for a tight end with his talent, rookie production and invested draft capital not to improve in his second season.
And there has been a lot of pass-catching turnover this offseason for the Ravens: Wide receivers John Brown and Michael Crabtree, running backs Ty Montgomery and Kenneth Dixon and tight end Maxx Williams are all gone, vacating 92 (or 49.2%) of the 187 passes Jackson attempted as a starter.
Willie Snead is still on the team, but he’s a low-floor slot-only contributor. Rookie wide receivers Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin have potential, but they will likely need time to integrate themselves fully into the offense. Running back Justice Hill will probably open the season as little more than a change-of-pace player. And tight ends Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst are respectively underwhelming and raw.
Andrews already has an established connection with Jackson, and he might actually be the best pass-catching option currently on the team. He could seize a significant portion of the evacuated market share.
I don’t want to sound extreme, but Andrews has some low-end 2018 George Kittle potential.
In Jackson’s eight starts, Andrews led all Ravens pass-catchers with an elite 2.87 yards per route (per PFF). Over that same time, the only tight ends with double-digit targets to have a better mark were Evan Engram (3.19) and Kittle (3.04).
Given his upside, Andrews is a fine punt play. Eventually, he’s going to break out.
Andrews is No. 1 at the position with six Pro Trends and a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he’s the top tight end in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan and Freedman Models.
Upside Tight Ends for Guaranteed Prize Pools
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers ($6,600 DK, $7,300 FD): Kittle last year set the single-season receiving record for a tight end with 1,377 yards, and the Bucs were No. 28 with a 21.1% pass DVOA against the position in 2018.
O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,000 DK, $6,500 FD): O.J. has 16.6 yards per reception in each of his NFL campaigns and is primed for a massive target boost this year.
Evan Engram, New York Giants ($4,800 DK, $6,400 FD): Engram has averaged 7.8 targets, 4.7 receptions, 59.1 yards and 0.4 touchdowns across his 15 games without wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., and he leads all FanDuel tight ends with his Week 1 floor projection.
Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans ($3,500 DK, $5,400 FD): Walker has 800-plus yards in each of his past four seasons with at least 15 games, and the Browns allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to tight ends with 15.3 per game in 2018.
Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals ($3,100 DK, $5,200 FD): Eifert is averaging 0.70 touchdowns per game over the past four years, he is a prime candidate for extra targets with A.J. Green (ankle) on the sideline and he leads all FanDuel tight ends with his position-high 92% Leverage Score.
Vernon Davis, Washington Redskins ($2,700 DK, $4,000 FD): Davis will start in Week 1 if Jordan Reed (concussion) doesn’t clear the league’s protocol, he has averaged 4.8 targets across his 15 games without Reed over the past three years and he owns a position-high +3.00 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Mark Andrews
Photo credit: USAToday Sports
