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NFL Week 1 Fantasy RB Breakdown: Chris Carson for All the Money

nfl week 1 2019-running back fantasy values-dfs picks-chris carson

The 2019 NFL regular season is upon us. This Sunday, Sept. 8, we have a full 12-game main slate that kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight the running backs who have caught my eye the most while I’ve researched with our large suite of analytical DFS Tools. Specifically, I break down the guys who stand out in the FantasyLabs Models.

For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.

Let’s start with the running back at the top of the salary scale.

Ezekiel Elliott: Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. New York Giants, 45.5 Over/Under

  • DraftKings: $9,200
  • FanDuel: $9,100

Ezekiel Elliott has signed a six-year, $90 million contract extension with the Cowboys and is fully expected to play in Week 1.

But there are reports that the Cowboys are planning to use Zeke for “about 20-25 reps” (per NFL Network’s Jane Slater), which is a far cry from the 59.3 snaps per game he played last year.

So what are fantasy players to do with Zeke in Week 1?

On the Week 1 NFL Fantasy Flex, we discuss how to approach Zeke for daily fantasy.

I will probably die believing that the Cowboys shouldn’t have drafted Elliott No. 4 overall in the 2016 draft, but as a fantasy producer, he’s elite. Since he entered the league in 2016, only Le’Veon Bell, Saquon Barkley and Todd Gurley have averaged more DraftKings points per game than Zeke’s 22.2 (including playoffs).

But here’s the problem: Zeke hasn’t practiced with the team all offseason, he habitually shows up each season out of shape and he’s been in Cabo for much of the past month. Additionally, this offseason the Cowboys added the explosive Tony Pollard via the draft.

Add it all together and Zeke simply carries too much risk to roster in cash games.

See my Week 1 Zeke piece for more details.

Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models

There are seven running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Saquon Barkley: $9,000 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel
  • Christian McCaffrey: $8,800 DraftKings; $8,900 FanDuel
  • Dalvin Cook: $6,000 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel
  • Kerryon Johnson: $5,800 DraftKings; $7,000 FanDuel
  • Chris Carson: $5,700 DraftKings; $6,600 FanDuel
  • Peyton Barber: $4,000 DraftKings; $5,500 FanDuel
  • Miles Sanders: $3,900 DraftKings; $6,000 FanDuel

Saquon Barkley: New York Giants (+7) at Dallas Cowboys, 45.5 O/U

On the other side of the Cowboys-Giants game is the second-year phenom, Saquon.

Although the Giants went just 5-11 last year, it’s worth nothing that in the second half of the season, they displayed a competitiveness they notably lacked in the first half (per the RotoViz Team Splits App).

  • Giants, Weeks 1-8: 1-7 record, -6.88 differential, 18.75 points scored, 25.62 points allowed
  • Giants, Weeks 10-16: 4-4 record, +1.50 differential, 27.38 points scored, 25.88 points allowed

In Week 17 last year, they played the playoff-bound Cowboys to a tough 36-35 loss and actually had the lead at the two-minute warning. The Giants are big road underdogs in Week 1, but we shouldn’t assume that this game won’t actually be a contest.

In fact, as a self-loathing Cowboys fan, I’m probably going to bet against them this week. Under head coach Jason Garrett, they are 17-33-1 against the spread as home favorites (including the postseason), making opponent bettors an A-graded 29.5% ROI (per Bet Labs).



Garrett’s team tends to play down to the level of inferior opponents.

But even if the Cowboys win in a blowout, Barkley is still likely to produce.

While the Giants were probably foolish to use the No. 2 overall pick on Barkley, that shouldn’t be held against him as a player. Of all backs to play since 2014, Barkley leads the position with his 21.3 FanDuel points per game.

On top of that, no back has exceeded his salary-based expectations more than Barkley has with his +6.44 Plus/Minus.

With his league-high 2,028 scrimmage yards last year, Barkley has a top-three all-time mark among rookie backs, trailing only Eric Dickerson (1983) and Edgerrin James (1999). Given that Barkley was the best running back prospect of the past decade, his success last year wasn’t a surprise.

It’s hard to overstate how good Barkley actually was last year. Even though quarterback Eli Manning was No. 26 with a paltry 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt and the offensive line was No. 29 with 3.90 adjusted line yards per carry (per Football Outsiders), Barkley still produced thanks to his goal-line usage (30 rushes and five targets inside the 10-yard line) and big-play ability (seven touchdowns of 15-plus yards and five of 50-plus yards).

Barkley’s average of 16.3 carries per game was less than ideal, but his receiving workload more than compensated for his rushing shortfall, as he finished No. 2 among all backs with 91 receptions and No. 3 with 121 targets. With those numbers, he broke Reggie Bush’s 2006 rookie record of 88 receptions for a back and tied Bush’s first-year record in targets.

With all the volume Barkley got as a receiver, he had at least 18 opportunities in every game last year. As a result, Barkley is a true script-independent back. Regardless of whether the Giants win or lose, Saquon is going to get his.

As a road dog, Barkley doesn’t have a great matchup. The Cowboys defense last year was No. 5 in run DVOA with a -17.6% mark. With Leighton Vander Esch, Jaylon Smith and Sean Lee, the Cowboys have one of the league’s best run-stopping linebacker units.

But Saquon’s strength is his pass-catching ability, and last year the Cowboys allowed a top-five mark of 101 receptions to opposing backfields, ranking No. 26 overall in pass defense against running backs with a 12.5% DVOA.

Even though his matchup isn’t great, it isn’t that bad. It’s not as if Saquon hasn’t played the Cowboys before.

  • Week 2, 2018 (away): 17.8 FanDuel points, 11-28-0 rushing, 14-80-0 receiving on 16 targets
  • Week 17, 2018 (home): 22.2 FanDuel points, 17-109-1 rushing, 4-33-0 receiving on 8 targets

Even if Barkley has an ugly game, he can still produce.

It’s worth remembering, though, that Barkley this season will no longer have the benefit of playing alongside wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., whom the Giants traded away in the offseason.

Over the past two years, the Giants have been a much worse team without OBJ.

  • Without Beckham (16 games): 16.8 points per game, 1.34 points per drive
  • With Beckham (16 games): 21.6 points per game, 1.92 points per drive

The sample is small, but Barkley was less productive last year without OBJ, as opposing defenses were able to focus their attention solely on him.

  • Without Beckham (four games): 18.4 FanDuel points per game, +2.39 Plus/Minus, 16.5 carries, 7.5 targets, 4.3 receptions, 118 yards and 0.75 touchdowns from scrimmage
  • With Beckham (12 games): 22.2 FanDuel points per game, +7.79 Plus/Minus, 16.3 carries, 7.6 targets, 6.2 receptions, 129.7 yards and 1.0 touchdowns from scrimmage

With OBJ gone and his ostensible replacement in Golden Tate suspended to start the year, Barkley has diminished upside.

Even so, Saquon still has an incredibly high floor. As a matchup-agnostic three-down back who played 83.0% of his team’s offensive snaps as a rookie, Barkley is a strong cash-game option if you’re looking to pay up at the position.

On Sunday morning, I might look to bet the over on Barkey’s reception prop, given his role in the passing game and the extent to which the Cowboys have allowed receptions to backs. To find the best bets in the props market, use our Player Props Tool, which is powered by our industry-leading projections. Since last year, the props with a bet quality of 10 have gone 239-122-12, good for a 64% win rate. Without question, you should supplement your DFS action with player props.

Barkley leads all backs with his 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s the No. 1 option in the Levitan Model.

Christian McCaffrey: Carolina Panthers (+2.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams, 50.0 O/U

There’s a lot to like about McCaffrey: He leads the slate with his median, ceiling and floor projections, and he has almost no competition for backfield touches. Last year, he played an obnoxious 91.3% of his team’s offensive snaps, and there’s no reason to expect his snap rate to decrease significantly this season.

Even though McCaffrey was just No. 17 last year with 13.7 rushing attempts per game, he more than made up for his ground-game dearth with a position-high and team-best 124 targets, 107 receptions, 867 yards receiving and 842 yards after the catch.

In 2018, McCaffrey was easily a top-three fantasy back with 25.3 DraftKings and 20.8 FanDuel points per game. In offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s surprisingly modern system, he #McCrushed.

Impressively, McCaffrey’s production came despite a multitude of roster issues.

Quarterback Cam Newton struggled throughout the second half of the season with a shoulder injury and missed the final two games of the campaign. And wide receivers D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel didn’t emerge as supporting players a defense would have to account for until late in the year.

And his offensive line was a mess, ranking No. 27 with a 51.2 PFF run-blocking grade. Left tackle Matt Kalil (knee, injured reserve) was sidelined before the regular season. Right tackle Daryl Williams (knee, IR) missed most of the season. And 2017 All-Pro left guard Andrew Norwell departed via free agency, leaving a significant hole at the position.

Even so, McCaffrey became more efficient as a runner (per RotoViz Screener).

  • 2018: 5.0 yards per carry, 0.07 fantasy points over expectation per attempt, 0.55 success rate
  • 2017: 3.7 yards per carry, -0.05 fantasy points over expectation per attempt, 0.44 success rate

Pound for pound, he might be the league’s best all-around back.

And McCaffrey’s in a good spot. The Rams defense was No. 4 last year with a 90.0 PFF grade, but it was actually exploitable on the ground, ranking No. 27 with a 1.1% run DVOA. And although the Rams were No. 4 in pass DVOA with a -18.1% mark against running backs, it’s doubtful that their linebackers will be able to keep up with McCaffrey in coverage: Almost no one can.

Plus, the Panthers-Rams game has one of the highest over/unders on the slate and will likely be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair. On top of that, throughout his career McCaffrey has been his best at home and in losses, so as a home dog, he’s in a smash spot.

I expect McCaffrey to be cash-game chalk. For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack McCaffrey with Newton. If McCaffrey has a big game, a large portion of his production could come as a receiver.

McCaffrey is tied for a position-high eight Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 back in the Levitan Model. He’s also the top FanDuel option in the Bales, Jennings, Koerner and Freedman Models.

Dalvin Cook: Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 48.0 O/U

On the one hand, Cook is the No. 1 DraftKings back in the Raybon Model, and we’re projecting him with the slate’s highest ownership rate. On the other hand, he marginally terrifies me.

As I said in our preseason piece on potential season-long busts, I understand the enthusiasm surrounding Cook. He’s an efficient runner (4.7 yards per carry) and good pass-catcher (40 receptions last season). Latavius Murray is gone, so Cook could have more opportunities this season.

Rushing guru Gary Kubiak is now with the Vikings as an offensive advisor, so the team seems likely to have a better rushing attack. And in Week 3 of the preseason, Cook broke off an 85-yard touchdown run.

But I’m pessimistic.

For all his hype, Cook has been mediocre at turning yards into touchdowns, primarily because he has just four carries inside the five-yard line since 2017.

Four. In 15 games. Four. That’s barely more than I have.

Cook could get more goal-line touches in 2019, but over the past two seasons, the Vikings bestowed 16 touches within the five to Murray, and I’m expecting at least some — if not most — of his high-value touches could go to rookie Alexander Mattison, who has a lot going for him.

Mattison isn’t all that athletic (4.67-second 40-yard dash), but he has significant draft capital (third-round pick), and he’s big (5-foot-11, 221 pounds) and young (21).

Over the past 30 years, there have been 16 backs with similar draft capital and size to play as 21-year-old rookies. Collectively, they averaged 713.6 yards and 5.1 touchdowns on 143.0 touches.

Those numbers fall a little short of Murray’s averages with the Vikings over the past two years — 832 yards and seven touchdowns on 196.5 touches — but it’s not hard to see that Mattison is a prime candidate to inherit some of Murray’s old work, especially the goal-line carries: Mattison is a big-bodied bruiser who scored 30 touchdowns at Boise State in his 27 games as a lead back, and Cook is a finesse back with a history of serious injuries going back to high school.

The Vikings would be wise to let someone other than Cook take the punishment that accompanies short-yardage carries — and if Mattison plays as the goal-line back, that will severely limit Cook’s upside.

On top of that, the offensive line is bad. Last year, it ranked No. 25 with a 53.0 PFF run-blocking grade. Changes have been made to the line with the addition of center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Josh Kline, so the line might be better. But Bradbury is a rookie, and Kline had a 58.0 PFF grade in 2018.

The offensive line could be just as subpar this year as it has been previously.

But it’s not all doom and gloom for Cook.

For the first 14 weeks of the 2018 season, the Vikings were the second-most pass-heavy team in the league. Under offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, they had a pass-play rate of 67.0%. But HC Mike Zimmer fired DeFilippo, in part because he wanted the team to run more.

Under new OC Kevin Stefanski, the Vikings ranked No. 9 with a 48.0% run rate in Weeks 15-17, and I expect the Vikings to continue to emphasize the running game this year, especially since the Vikings brought in Kubiak to serve as an offensive assistant.

In a run-heavy scheme that uses Kubiak’s zone-blocking principles, Cook could crush.

And he has a good matchup. Under defensive HC Dan Quinn, the Falcons have usually been generous to opposing backfields, primarily because their Cover 3 defense funnels targets to running backs.

  • 2018: 30.0 DraftKings points (4th), 117 receptions (1st)
  • 2017: 23.5 DraftKings points (21st), 110 receptions (1st)
  • 2016: 28.1 DraftKings points (4th), 109 receptions (1st)
  • 2015: 29.6 DraftKings points (3rd), 118 receptions (1st)

It is worth pointing out that last year the Falcons were without starting middle linebacker Deion Jones for 10 games, and since he became a Pro Bowl-level player in 2017, his impact on the defense has been obvious (including playoffs).

  • With Jones (24 games): 19.9 points allowed, 109.5 yards rushing, -1.72 expected points
  • Without Jones (10 games): 28.9 points allowed, 124.8 yards rushing, -16.1 expected points

Perhaps with Jones the Falcons defense is more like the unit from 2017 than 2018.

But even if that’s the case, Cook is still a three-down player with pass-catching skills in a run-heavy system facing a team that funnels targets to backs.

I’m unsure about Cook in cash because of his uncertain goal-line usage, but he warrants exposure in tournaments if you’re entering multiple lineups.

Also, I’m taking an against-the-spread position on the Vikings, who are home favorites against a non-divisional opponent. Under Mike Zimmer, the Vikings have been a profitable regular-season team to back…

  • At home: 27-12-1, 33.4% ROI
  • As favorites: 29-14-1, 30.5% ROI
  • Outside of division: 36-13-1, 42.1% ROI

As a non-divisional home favorite, Zimmer’s Vikings are an outstanding 16-2-1, good for a nice 69% ROI.

Even if I won’t have a daily fantasy investment in Cook on Sunday, I can see how he could have a lot of success.

Chris Carson: Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 44.0 O/U

I’m something of an old-school Rashaad Penny truther, so the petty part of me doesn’t want to see Carson dominate the Seattle backfield.

But the pragmatic side of me knows that this is the most exquisite of smash spots.

If you don’t have daily fantasy exposure to Carson this weekend, you must hate money. Plain and simple.

Last year, the Seahawks led the league with a bellicose 52.4% rush rate, and now they are big home favorites against a Bengals defense that last year allowed the second-most production to opposing backfields with 27.4 FanDuel points per game.

On top of that, the Bengals defense is unlikely to get much support from the offense due to the injury to wide receiver A.J. Green (ankle) and the general ineptness of the offensive line (not one starter has a PFF grade of even 65.0).

Despite missing two games, Carson last year was No. 7 in the league with 247 carries, and he was actually No. 3 with 17.6 attempts per game. And after he returned in Week 11 from his hip injury, Carson was one of the league’s more reliable backs on a per-game basis (including playoffs).

  • 15.6 FanDuel points
  • 18.6 carries, two targets
  • 94.5 scrimmage yards
  • 0.88 scrimmage touchdowns

Perhaps most importantly, with the offseason departure of running back Mike Davis, it’s likely that a chunk of his 2018 workload (112 carries, 42 targets) will go to Carson, whom OC Brian Schottenheimer has talked up especially as a receiver out of the backfield.

As much as I like Penny, I have to acknowledge that Carson looks like the clear three-down leader in this run-heavy offense, and against a defense this bad, he absolutely must be rostered as a home favorite.

Last year, Carson averaged 17.7 FanDuel points per game with a +7.06 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 100% Consistency Rating in his five starts as a favorite at CenturyLink Field.

Carson is the No. 1 FanDuel back in the Raybon and SportsGeek Models.

Kerryon Johnson: Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals, 46.5 O/U

The Cardinals last year were No. 26 on defense with 26.6 points allowed per game. They were No. 29 with a 68.5 PFF run-defense grade. They were surprisingly No. 8 in pass DVOA with a -0.9% mark, but this week they are without their top cornerbacks in Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (leg, injured reserve).

Last year, the Cardinals allowed opposing backfields to score 31.5 DraftKings points per game, the second-highest mark in the league, and their defense is likely to be #notgood once again in 2019.

Against such a unit, Johnson has the potential to ball out. A high-end running back prospect in the 2018 draft, Kerryon flashed in his 10-game injury-truncated rookie campaign. Although he had to compete with LeGarrette Blount for goal-line work and Theo Riddick for targets, Johnson proved himself to be the real deal.

Upon his assumption of the starting job in Week 4, Johnson scored 16.0 DraftKings points per game with a +5.61 Plus/Minus, averaging 91.6 yards and 0.57 touchdowns on 12.7 carries, 3.9 targets and 3.1 receptions.

With Riddick gone (as well as short-yardage wide receiver Golden Tate), Johnson is very much in line to see a boost in targets. And although the Lions added C.J. Anderson to the depth chart this offseason, Johnson still might enjoy an increase in goal-line touches thanks to Blount’s departure. Most importantly, new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell is expected to employ a run-heavy scheme, just as he did with the Adrian Peterson- and Marshawn Lynch-led Vikings and Seahawks from 2007 to 2015.

Is it a little concerning for Johnson that in 2006 and 2016-17 — when Bevell didn’t have AP and Skittles — he oversaw offenses that averaged a 58.8% pass-play rate? Not really. If the Lions run a lot, great: Johnson will probably get the ball. If the Lions pass a lot, great: Johnson will regularly get targeted, and the Lions offense might actually be better.

Regardless, I think Johnson is a lot more like Peterson and Lynch than Chester Taylor, Christine Michael, Thomas Rawls and whatever other backs Bevell had to work with in his non-AP/Lynch seasons. Like Peterson and Lynch, Johnson impressed as a 21-year-old rookie backed by significant draft capital. He truly does have the potential to become the centerpiece of a backfield-focused Bevell offense.

Kerryon feels a little risky for cash games because of his uncertain goal-line role: Anderson could easily be the team’s primary short-yardage back. But Johnson is a great upside option for tournaments.

He’s the No. 1 back in the Bales and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he’s tied for the position lead with eight Pro Trends.

Peyton Barber: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK) vs. San Francisco 49ers, 50.5 O/U

Last year, Barber was the No. 1 DraftKings back in the Freedman Model for maybe eight of his 16 games. Not joking. It was actually a source of mild embarrassment, akin to the way you feel when you’re sitting on a leather chair and it squeaks and everyone thinks you farted. I mean, sure, you farted five minutes ago, but that one was silent, and most people probably didn’t smell it. But the leather squeak — that was the chair.

That’s what Barber is. He’s the leather squeak.

But there are some real reasons to consider him: He’s the lead back on an upside-laden offense with an aggressive-minded head coach in Bruce Arians, and the Bucs-49ers game has one of the slate’s highest over/unders.

Even though the Bucs last year were a top-three team with 5,125 yards in the passing game, 6,648 yards from scrimmage and 388 first downs, Barber was an utterly overlooked player. It doesn’t help that he averaged just 9.6 DraftKings points per game and scored more than 15 points just three times in 16 games.

Of all the starting backs in the league, he without question was the stone-cold worst.

But he still had a +2.90 Plus/Minus and a 56.3% Consistency Rating on DraftKings. He wasn’t worthless.

And this week in particular there’s room for optimism.

Barber is still the starter, and last year he played 55.1% of the team’s offensive snaps and got 68.5% of the backfield opportunities. The two guys beneath him on the depth chart — Ronald Jones II and Dare Ogunbowale — have a combined 77 scrimmage yards in three years of NFL service. As uninspiring as Barber might be, he really might be better than those guys.

Additionally, since becoming the Bucs’ lead back in Week 13 of the 2017 season, Barber has been at his best with quarterback Jameis Winston instead of Ryan Fitzpatrick, exhibiting notable quarterback-based splits. While these splits are apparent even in the games with quarterback changes, I’ve removed such games from the sample so the trend can be better seen.

  • Barber with Winston (13 complete games): 11.3 DraftKings points, 15.5 carries, 2.4 targets, 1.9 receptions, 70.7 yards, 0.38 touchdowns
  • Barber with Fitzpatrick (five complete games): 5.5 DraftKings points, 13.4 carries, 1.6 targets, 0.8 receptions, 47.4 yards, zero touchdowns

Now that Fitz is with the Dolphins and Winston is locked in as the starter, maybe we’ll see a more reliable version of Barber.

And Barber has a reasonably good matchup. Last year, the 49ers were No. 26 with a PFF run-defense grade of 75.2. And since former HC Jim Harbaugh left in 2015, the 49ers have allowed the second-most rushing yards with 8,349 and the most rushing touchdowns with 71.

In Week 12 last year, Barber scored 14.3 DraftKings points at home against the 49ers with 63 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries and two receptions on two targets. Given that he had 20 touches, he wasn’t all that productive.

But if he gets 20 touches again on Sunday, it will be difficult for him not to return value at his price — and he could realistically have 100-yard, two-touchdown upside at minimal ownership.

Barber is the No. 1 DraftKings back in the Jennings and Freedman Models.

Miles Sanders: Philadelphia Eagles (-10) vs. Washington Redskins, 45.0 O/U

A top-three pick in rookie dynasty drafts this year, Sanders could be a first-year star.

Here’s what I had to say about him in my dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings.

A five-star recruit entering college, Sanders signed in state so he could realize his dream of playing for the Nittany Lions — and then he sat on the bench for two years behind Saquon Barkley.

As a backup, Sanders was almost nonexistent.

But as a junior, Sanders got his long-awaited opportunity, and he capitalized, putting up 1,413 yards and nine touchdowns on 220 carries and 24 receptions in 13 games.

Sanders isn’t a finished product. He tried to bounce too many runs outside, he had an elusive rating of just 75.5 and he averaged only 0.7 yards per route run. He’s an all-around good back with above-average athleticism, but he doesn’t excel in any one thing.

With the Eagles, though, his versatility will be what sets him apart.

Under HC Doug Pederson, the Eagles have never had a lead back with a true three-down skill set. Instead, they’ve relied on committees of past-their-prime grinders, injury-impacted pass catchers and flash-in-the-pan undrafted free agents.

No more.

In Sanders, the Eagles have a lead back who can do it all.

The future is now. Get some exposure to Sanders this week, because he might not be this cheap again the entire season.

As a big home favorite with a three-down skill set and a good offensive line (No. 6 PFF run-blocking grade with a 69.5 mark), Sanders is in a great spot. Last year, the Redskins were No. 28 in rush defense (1.3% DVOA), and it’s hard to say that their stop unit has gotten better over the offseason.

Additionally, the Redskins are in disarray on offense. They are unsettled at every skill position, and seven-time Pro-Bowl left tackle Trent Williams is sitting out Week 1. The Redskins have one of the lowest implied Vegas totals on the slate at 17.5 points. Against an Eagles defense that last year was No. 5 with an 88.2 PFF grade, the Redskins should struggle to keep the ball.

And that means more possessions and offensive opportunities for Sanders.

Given his talent, circumstances and low cost, Sanders is a great option if you want to spend down without forfeiting upside.

Sanders is the No. 1 back in the Koerner Model for DraftKings, where he leads the position with a 98% Bargain Rating.

Upside Running Backs for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams ($7,900 DK, $7,600 FD): Gurley will be underowned relative to similarly priced options, he has a position-high 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and he is still the lead back on the team that over the past two years has led the NFL in scoring with 34.5 points per game and given him a total of 36 carries inside the five-yard line in 29 games.

David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals ($7,700 DK, $8,100 FD): DJ has averaged 109.0 yards and 0.91 touchdowns from scrimmage on 17.0 carries, 6.2 targets and 4.1 receptions per game over the past three years, and now he’s the lead back in the offense that could lead the league in pace of play and pass rate.

Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets ($7,100 DK, $7,900 FD): Bell is No. 1 among all backs over the past half decade with an average of 26.9 opportunities per game and No. 2 with 24.5 DraftKings points per game.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns ($6,400 DK, $7,400 FD): Chubb averaged 97.2 yards and 0.8 touchdowns across his 10 games last year as the lead back, and he’s No. 1 at the position with +5.58 DraftKings and +5.03 FanDuel Projected Plus/Minus values on the slate.

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,100 DK, $7,200 FD): Lenny has two back-of-mind rookies as his immediate backups, and he’s facing a Chiefs defense that last year ranked dead last in rush DVOA with a 9.8% mark.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers ($5,500 DK, $6,400 FD): Danny Woodhead 2.0 is expected start in place of Melvin Gordon (holdout), and Ekeler has averaged 16.5 DraftKings points, 79.4 yards and 0.7 touchdowns across his 10 career games with 10-plus touches.

Tevin Coleman, San Francisco 49ers ($5,000 DK, $6,300 FD): Coleman is slated to be the lead back in HC Kyle Shanahan’s king-making zone-blocking scheme, and he’s going against a Bucs defense that last year allowed opposing backfields to put up a top-five mark of 28.8 DraftKings points per game.

Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins ($4,700 DK, $6,000 FD): Drake is likely to get more than the 10.6 touches he’s averaged over the past two years, and he has position-high Leverage Scores (93% on DraftKings, 92% on FanDuel) thanks to his low ownership and high ceiling projections.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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The 2019 NFL regular season is upon us. This Sunday, Sept. 8, we have a full 12-game main slate that kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight the running backs who have caught my eye the most while I’ve researched with our large suite of analytical DFS Tools. Specifically, I break down the guys who stand out in the FantasyLabs Models.

For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.

Let’s start with the running back at the top of the salary scale.

Ezekiel Elliott: Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. New York Giants, 45.5 Over/Under

  • DraftKings: $9,200
  • FanDuel: $9,100

Ezekiel Elliott has signed a six-year, $90 million contract extension with the Cowboys and is fully expected to play in Week 1.

But there are reports that the Cowboys are planning to use Zeke for “about 20-25 reps” (per NFL Network’s Jane Slater), which is a far cry from the 59.3 snaps per game he played last year.

So what are fantasy players to do with Zeke in Week 1?

On the Week 1 NFL Fantasy Flex, we discuss how to approach Zeke for daily fantasy.

I will probably die believing that the Cowboys shouldn’t have drafted Elliott No. 4 overall in the 2016 draft, but as a fantasy producer, he’s elite. Since he entered the league in 2016, only Le’Veon Bell, Saquon Barkley and Todd Gurley have averaged more DraftKings points per game than Zeke’s 22.2 (including playoffs).

But here’s the problem: Zeke hasn’t practiced with the team all offseason, he habitually shows up each season out of shape and he’s been in Cabo for much of the past month. Additionally, this offseason the Cowboys added the explosive Tony Pollard via the draft.

Add it all together and Zeke simply carries too much risk to roster in cash games.

See my Week 1 Zeke piece for more details.

Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models

There are seven running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Saquon Barkley: $9,000 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel
  • Christian McCaffrey: $8,800 DraftKings; $8,900 FanDuel
  • Dalvin Cook: $6,000 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel
  • Kerryon Johnson: $5,800 DraftKings; $7,000 FanDuel
  • Chris Carson: $5,700 DraftKings; $6,600 FanDuel
  • Peyton Barber: $4,000 DraftKings; $5,500 FanDuel
  • Miles Sanders: $3,900 DraftKings; $6,000 FanDuel

Saquon Barkley: New York Giants (+7) at Dallas Cowboys, 45.5 O/U

On the other side of the Cowboys-Giants game is the second-year phenom, Saquon.

Although the Giants went just 5-11 last year, it’s worth nothing that in the second half of the season, they displayed a competitiveness they notably lacked in the first half (per the RotoViz Team Splits App).

  • Giants, Weeks 1-8: 1-7 record, -6.88 differential, 18.75 points scored, 25.62 points allowed
  • Giants, Weeks 10-16: 4-4 record, +1.50 differential, 27.38 points scored, 25.88 points allowed

In Week 17 last year, they played the playoff-bound Cowboys to a tough 36-35 loss and actually had the lead at the two-minute warning. The Giants are big road underdogs in Week 1, but we shouldn’t assume that this game won’t actually be a contest.

In fact, as a self-loathing Cowboys fan, I’m probably going to bet against them this week. Under head coach Jason Garrett, they are 17-33-1 against the spread as home favorites (including the postseason), making opponent bettors an A-graded 29.5% ROI (per Bet Labs).



Garrett’s team tends to play down to the level of inferior opponents.

But even if the Cowboys win in a blowout, Barkley is still likely to produce.

While the Giants were probably foolish to use the No. 2 overall pick on Barkley, that shouldn’t be held against him as a player. Of all backs to play since 2014, Barkley leads the position with his 21.3 FanDuel points per game.

On top of that, no back has exceeded his salary-based expectations more than Barkley has with his +6.44 Plus/Minus.

With his league-high 2,028 scrimmage yards last year, Barkley has a top-three all-time mark among rookie backs, trailing only Eric Dickerson (1983) and Edgerrin James (1999). Given that Barkley was the best running back prospect of the past decade, his success last year wasn’t a surprise.

It’s hard to overstate how good Barkley actually was last year. Even though quarterback Eli Manning was No. 26 with a paltry 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt and the offensive line was No. 29 with 3.90 adjusted line yards per carry (per Football Outsiders), Barkley still produced thanks to his goal-line usage (30 rushes and five targets inside the 10-yard line) and big-play ability (seven touchdowns of 15-plus yards and five of 50-plus yards).

Barkley’s average of 16.3 carries per game was less than ideal, but his receiving workload more than compensated for his rushing shortfall, as he finished No. 2 among all backs with 91 receptions and No. 3 with 121 targets. With those numbers, he broke Reggie Bush’s 2006 rookie record of 88 receptions for a back and tied Bush’s first-year record in targets.

With all the volume Barkley got as a receiver, he had at least 18 opportunities in every game last year. As a result, Barkley is a true script-independent back. Regardless of whether the Giants win or lose, Saquon is going to get his.

As a road dog, Barkley doesn’t have a great matchup. The Cowboys defense last year was No. 5 in run DVOA with a -17.6% mark. With Leighton Vander Esch, Jaylon Smith and Sean Lee, the Cowboys have one of the league’s best run-stopping linebacker units.

But Saquon’s strength is his pass-catching ability, and last year the Cowboys allowed a top-five mark of 101 receptions to opposing backfields, ranking No. 26 overall in pass defense against running backs with a 12.5% DVOA.

Even though his matchup isn’t great, it isn’t that bad. It’s not as if Saquon hasn’t played the Cowboys before.

  • Week 2, 2018 (away): 17.8 FanDuel points, 11-28-0 rushing, 14-80-0 receiving on 16 targets
  • Week 17, 2018 (home): 22.2 FanDuel points, 17-109-1 rushing, 4-33-0 receiving on 8 targets

Even if Barkley has an ugly game, he can still produce.

It’s worth remembering, though, that Barkley this season will no longer have the benefit of playing alongside wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., whom the Giants traded away in the offseason.

Over the past two years, the Giants have been a much worse team without OBJ.

  • Without Beckham (16 games): 16.8 points per game, 1.34 points per drive
  • With Beckham (16 games): 21.6 points per game, 1.92 points per drive

The sample is small, but Barkley was less productive last year without OBJ, as opposing defenses were able to focus their attention solely on him.

  • Without Beckham (four games): 18.4 FanDuel points per game, +2.39 Plus/Minus, 16.5 carries, 7.5 targets, 4.3 receptions, 118 yards and 0.75 touchdowns from scrimmage
  • With Beckham (12 games): 22.2 FanDuel points per game, +7.79 Plus/Minus, 16.3 carries, 7.6 targets, 6.2 receptions, 129.7 yards and 1.0 touchdowns from scrimmage

With OBJ gone and his ostensible replacement in Golden Tate suspended to start the year, Barkley has diminished upside.

Even so, Saquon still has an incredibly high floor. As a matchup-agnostic three-down back who played 83.0% of his team’s offensive snaps as a rookie, Barkley is a strong cash-game option if you’re looking to pay up at the position.

On Sunday morning, I might look to bet the over on Barkey’s reception prop, given his role in the passing game and the extent to which the Cowboys have allowed receptions to backs. To find the best bets in the props market, use our Player Props Tool, which is powered by our industry-leading projections. Since last year, the props with a bet quality of 10 have gone 239-122-12, good for a 64% win rate. Without question, you should supplement your DFS action with player props.

Barkley leads all backs with his 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s the No. 1 option in the Levitan Model.

Christian McCaffrey: Carolina Panthers (+2.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams, 50.0 O/U

There’s a lot to like about McCaffrey: He leads the slate with his median, ceiling and floor projections, and he has almost no competition for backfield touches. Last year, he played an obnoxious 91.3% of his team’s offensive snaps, and there’s no reason to expect his snap rate to decrease significantly this season.

Even though McCaffrey was just No. 17 last year with 13.7 rushing attempts per game, he more than made up for his ground-game dearth with a position-high and team-best 124 targets, 107 receptions, 867 yards receiving and 842 yards after the catch.

In 2018, McCaffrey was easily a top-three fantasy back with 25.3 DraftKings and 20.8 FanDuel points per game. In offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s surprisingly modern system, he #McCrushed.

Impressively, McCaffrey’s production came despite a multitude of roster issues.

Quarterback Cam Newton struggled throughout the second half of the season with a shoulder injury and missed the final two games of the campaign. And wide receivers D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel didn’t emerge as supporting players a defense would have to account for until late in the year.

And his offensive line was a mess, ranking No. 27 with a 51.2 PFF run-blocking grade. Left tackle Matt Kalil (knee, injured reserve) was sidelined before the regular season. Right tackle Daryl Williams (knee, IR) missed most of the season. And 2017 All-Pro left guard Andrew Norwell departed via free agency, leaving a significant hole at the position.

Even so, McCaffrey became more efficient as a runner (per RotoViz Screener).

  • 2018: 5.0 yards per carry, 0.07 fantasy points over expectation per attempt, 0.55 success rate
  • 2017: 3.7 yards per carry, -0.05 fantasy points over expectation per attempt, 0.44 success rate

Pound for pound, he might be the league’s best all-around back.

And McCaffrey’s in a good spot. The Rams defense was No. 4 last year with a 90.0 PFF grade, but it was actually exploitable on the ground, ranking No. 27 with a 1.1% run DVOA. And although the Rams were No. 4 in pass DVOA with a -18.1% mark against running backs, it’s doubtful that their linebackers will be able to keep up with McCaffrey in coverage: Almost no one can.

Plus, the Panthers-Rams game has one of the highest over/unders on the slate and will likely be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair. On top of that, throughout his career McCaffrey has been his best at home and in losses, so as a home dog, he’s in a smash spot.

I expect McCaffrey to be cash-game chalk. For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack McCaffrey with Newton. If McCaffrey has a big game, a large portion of his production could come as a receiver.

McCaffrey is tied for a position-high eight Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 back in the Levitan Model. He’s also the top FanDuel option in the Bales, Jennings, Koerner and Freedman Models.

Dalvin Cook: Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 48.0 O/U

On the one hand, Cook is the No. 1 DraftKings back in the Raybon Model, and we’re projecting him with the slate’s highest ownership rate. On the other hand, he marginally terrifies me.

As I said in our preseason piece on potential season-long busts, I understand the enthusiasm surrounding Cook. He’s an efficient runner (4.7 yards per carry) and good pass-catcher (40 receptions last season). Latavius Murray is gone, so Cook could have more opportunities this season.

Rushing guru Gary Kubiak is now with the Vikings as an offensive advisor, so the team seems likely to have a better rushing attack. And in Week 3 of the preseason, Cook broke off an 85-yard touchdown run.

But I’m pessimistic.

For all his hype, Cook has been mediocre at turning yards into touchdowns, primarily because he has just four carries inside the five-yard line since 2017.

Four. In 15 games. Four. That’s barely more than I have.

Cook could get more goal-line touches in 2019, but over the past two seasons, the Vikings bestowed 16 touches within the five to Murray, and I’m expecting at least some — if not most — of his high-value touches could go to rookie Alexander Mattison, who has a lot going for him.

Mattison isn’t all that athletic (4.67-second 40-yard dash), but he has significant draft capital (third-round pick), and he’s big (5-foot-11, 221 pounds) and young (21).

Over the past 30 years, there have been 16 backs with similar draft capital and size to play as 21-year-old rookies. Collectively, they averaged 713.6 yards and 5.1 touchdowns on 143.0 touches.

Those numbers fall a little short of Murray’s averages with the Vikings over the past two years — 832 yards and seven touchdowns on 196.5 touches — but it’s not hard to see that Mattison is a prime candidate to inherit some of Murray’s old work, especially the goal-line carries: Mattison is a big-bodied bruiser who scored 30 touchdowns at Boise State in his 27 games as a lead back, and Cook is a finesse back with a history of serious injuries going back to high school.

The Vikings would be wise to let someone other than Cook take the punishment that accompanies short-yardage carries — and if Mattison plays as the goal-line back, that will severely limit Cook’s upside.

On top of that, the offensive line is bad. Last year, it ranked No. 25 with a 53.0 PFF run-blocking grade. Changes have been made to the line with the addition of center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Josh Kline, so the line might be better. But Bradbury is a rookie, and Kline had a 58.0 PFF grade in 2018.

The offensive line could be just as subpar this year as it has been previously.

But it’s not all doom and gloom for Cook.

For the first 14 weeks of the 2018 season, the Vikings were the second-most pass-heavy team in the league. Under offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, they had a pass-play rate of 67.0%. But HC Mike Zimmer fired DeFilippo, in part because he wanted the team to run more.

Under new OC Kevin Stefanski, the Vikings ranked No. 9 with a 48.0% run rate in Weeks 15-17, and I expect the Vikings to continue to emphasize the running game this year, especially since the Vikings brought in Kubiak to serve as an offensive assistant.

In a run-heavy scheme that uses Kubiak’s zone-blocking principles, Cook could crush.

And he has a good matchup. Under defensive HC Dan Quinn, the Falcons have usually been generous to opposing backfields, primarily because their Cover 3 defense funnels targets to running backs.

  • 2018: 30.0 DraftKings points (4th), 117 receptions (1st)
  • 2017: 23.5 DraftKings points (21st), 110 receptions (1st)
  • 2016: 28.1 DraftKings points (4th), 109 receptions (1st)
  • 2015: 29.6 DraftKings points (3rd), 118 receptions (1st)

It is worth pointing out that last year the Falcons were without starting middle linebacker Deion Jones for 10 games, and since he became a Pro Bowl-level player in 2017, his impact on the defense has been obvious (including playoffs).

  • With Jones (24 games): 19.9 points allowed, 109.5 yards rushing, -1.72 expected points
  • Without Jones (10 games): 28.9 points allowed, 124.8 yards rushing, -16.1 expected points

Perhaps with Jones the Falcons defense is more like the unit from 2017 than 2018.

But even if that’s the case, Cook is still a three-down player with pass-catching skills in a run-heavy system facing a team that funnels targets to backs.

I’m unsure about Cook in cash because of his uncertain goal-line usage, but he warrants exposure in tournaments if you’re entering multiple lineups.

Also, I’m taking an against-the-spread position on the Vikings, who are home favorites against a non-divisional opponent. Under Mike Zimmer, the Vikings have been a profitable regular-season team to back…

  • At home: 27-12-1, 33.4% ROI
  • As favorites: 29-14-1, 30.5% ROI
  • Outside of division: 36-13-1, 42.1% ROI

As a non-divisional home favorite, Zimmer’s Vikings are an outstanding 16-2-1, good for a nice 69% ROI.

Even if I won’t have a daily fantasy investment in Cook on Sunday, I can see how he could have a lot of success.

Chris Carson: Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 44.0 O/U

I’m something of an old-school Rashaad Penny truther, so the petty part of me doesn’t want to see Carson dominate the Seattle backfield.

But the pragmatic side of me knows that this is the most exquisite of smash spots.

If you don’t have daily fantasy exposure to Carson this weekend, you must hate money. Plain and simple.

Last year, the Seahawks led the league with a bellicose 52.4% rush rate, and now they are big home favorites against a Bengals defense that last year allowed the second-most production to opposing backfields with 27.4 FanDuel points per game.

On top of that, the Bengals defense is unlikely to get much support from the offense due to the injury to wide receiver A.J. Green (ankle) and the general ineptness of the offensive line (not one starter has a PFF grade of even 65.0).

Despite missing two games, Carson last year was No. 7 in the league with 247 carries, and he was actually No. 3 with 17.6 attempts per game. And after he returned in Week 11 from his hip injury, Carson was one of the league’s more reliable backs on a per-game basis (including playoffs).

  • 15.6 FanDuel points
  • 18.6 carries, two targets
  • 94.5 scrimmage yards
  • 0.88 scrimmage touchdowns

Perhaps most importantly, with the offseason departure of running back Mike Davis, it’s likely that a chunk of his 2018 workload (112 carries, 42 targets) will go to Carson, whom OC Brian Schottenheimer has talked up especially as a receiver out of the backfield.

As much as I like Penny, I have to acknowledge that Carson looks like the clear three-down leader in this run-heavy offense, and against a defense this bad, he absolutely must be rostered as a home favorite.

Last year, Carson averaged 17.7 FanDuel points per game with a +7.06 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 100% Consistency Rating in his five starts as a favorite at CenturyLink Field.

Carson is the No. 1 FanDuel back in the Raybon and SportsGeek Models.

Kerryon Johnson: Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals, 46.5 O/U

The Cardinals last year were No. 26 on defense with 26.6 points allowed per game. They were No. 29 with a 68.5 PFF run-defense grade. They were surprisingly No. 8 in pass DVOA with a -0.9% mark, but this week they are without their top cornerbacks in Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (leg, injured reserve).

Last year, the Cardinals allowed opposing backfields to score 31.5 DraftKings points per game, the second-highest mark in the league, and their defense is likely to be #notgood once again in 2019.

Against such a unit, Johnson has the potential to ball out. A high-end running back prospect in the 2018 draft, Kerryon flashed in his 10-game injury-truncated rookie campaign. Although he had to compete with LeGarrette Blount for goal-line work and Theo Riddick for targets, Johnson proved himself to be the real deal.

Upon his assumption of the starting job in Week 4, Johnson scored 16.0 DraftKings points per game with a +5.61 Plus/Minus, averaging 91.6 yards and 0.57 touchdowns on 12.7 carries, 3.9 targets and 3.1 receptions.

With Riddick gone (as well as short-yardage wide receiver Golden Tate), Johnson is very much in line to see a boost in targets. And although the Lions added C.J. Anderson to the depth chart this offseason, Johnson still might enjoy an increase in goal-line touches thanks to Blount’s departure. Most importantly, new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell is expected to employ a run-heavy scheme, just as he did with the Adrian Peterson- and Marshawn Lynch-led Vikings and Seahawks from 2007 to 2015.

Is it a little concerning for Johnson that in 2006 and 2016-17 — when Bevell didn’t have AP and Skittles — he oversaw offenses that averaged a 58.8% pass-play rate? Not really. If the Lions run a lot, great: Johnson will probably get the ball. If the Lions pass a lot, great: Johnson will regularly get targeted, and the Lions offense might actually be better.

Regardless, I think Johnson is a lot more like Peterson and Lynch than Chester Taylor, Christine Michael, Thomas Rawls and whatever other backs Bevell had to work with in his non-AP/Lynch seasons. Like Peterson and Lynch, Johnson impressed as a 21-year-old rookie backed by significant draft capital. He truly does have the potential to become the centerpiece of a backfield-focused Bevell offense.

Kerryon feels a little risky for cash games because of his uncertain goal-line role: Anderson could easily be the team’s primary short-yardage back. But Johnson is a great upside option for tournaments.

He’s the No. 1 back in the Bales and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he’s tied for the position lead with eight Pro Trends.

Peyton Barber: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK) vs. San Francisco 49ers, 50.5 O/U

Last year, Barber was the No. 1 DraftKings back in the Freedman Model for maybe eight of his 16 games. Not joking. It was actually a source of mild embarrassment, akin to the way you feel when you’re sitting on a leather chair and it squeaks and everyone thinks you farted. I mean, sure, you farted five minutes ago, but that one was silent, and most people probably didn’t smell it. But the leather squeak — that was the chair.

That’s what Barber is. He’s the leather squeak.

But there are some real reasons to consider him: He’s the lead back on an upside-laden offense with an aggressive-minded head coach in Bruce Arians, and the Bucs-49ers game has one of the slate’s highest over/unders.

Even though the Bucs last year were a top-three team with 5,125 yards in the passing game, 6,648 yards from scrimmage and 388 first downs, Barber was an utterly overlooked player. It doesn’t help that he averaged just 9.6 DraftKings points per game and scored more than 15 points just three times in 16 games.

Of all the starting backs in the league, he without question was the stone-cold worst.

But he still had a +2.90 Plus/Minus and a 56.3% Consistency Rating on DraftKings. He wasn’t worthless.

And this week in particular there’s room for optimism.

Barber is still the starter, and last year he played 55.1% of the team’s offensive snaps and got 68.5% of the backfield opportunities. The two guys beneath him on the depth chart — Ronald Jones II and Dare Ogunbowale — have a combined 77 scrimmage yards in three years of NFL service. As uninspiring as Barber might be, he really might be better than those guys.

Additionally, since becoming the Bucs’ lead back in Week 13 of the 2017 season, Barber has been at his best with quarterback Jameis Winston instead of Ryan Fitzpatrick, exhibiting notable quarterback-based splits. While these splits are apparent even in the games with quarterback changes, I’ve removed such games from the sample so the trend can be better seen.

  • Barber with Winston (13 complete games): 11.3 DraftKings points, 15.5 carries, 2.4 targets, 1.9 receptions, 70.7 yards, 0.38 touchdowns
  • Barber with Fitzpatrick (five complete games): 5.5 DraftKings points, 13.4 carries, 1.6 targets, 0.8 receptions, 47.4 yards, zero touchdowns

Now that Fitz is with the Dolphins and Winston is locked in as the starter, maybe we’ll see a more reliable version of Barber.

And Barber has a reasonably good matchup. Last year, the 49ers were No. 26 with a PFF run-defense grade of 75.2. And since former HC Jim Harbaugh left in 2015, the 49ers have allowed the second-most rushing yards with 8,349 and the most rushing touchdowns with 71.

In Week 12 last year, Barber scored 14.3 DraftKings points at home against the 49ers with 63 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries and two receptions on two targets. Given that he had 20 touches, he wasn’t all that productive.

But if he gets 20 touches again on Sunday, it will be difficult for him not to return value at his price — and he could realistically have 100-yard, two-touchdown upside at minimal ownership.

Barber is the No. 1 DraftKings back in the Jennings and Freedman Models.

Miles Sanders: Philadelphia Eagles (-10) vs. Washington Redskins, 45.0 O/U

A top-three pick in rookie dynasty drafts this year, Sanders could be a first-year star.

Here’s what I had to say about him in my dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings.

A five-star recruit entering college, Sanders signed in state so he could realize his dream of playing for the Nittany Lions — and then he sat on the bench for two years behind Saquon Barkley.

As a backup, Sanders was almost nonexistent.

But as a junior, Sanders got his long-awaited opportunity, and he capitalized, putting up 1,413 yards and nine touchdowns on 220 carries and 24 receptions in 13 games.

Sanders isn’t a finished product. He tried to bounce too many runs outside, he had an elusive rating of just 75.5 and he averaged only 0.7 yards per route run. He’s an all-around good back with above-average athleticism, but he doesn’t excel in any one thing.

With the Eagles, though, his versatility will be what sets him apart.

Under HC Doug Pederson, the Eagles have never had a lead back with a true three-down skill set. Instead, they’ve relied on committees of past-their-prime grinders, injury-impacted pass catchers and flash-in-the-pan undrafted free agents.

No more.

In Sanders, the Eagles have a lead back who can do it all.

The future is now. Get some exposure to Sanders this week, because he might not be this cheap again the entire season.

As a big home favorite with a three-down skill set and a good offensive line (No. 6 PFF run-blocking grade with a 69.5 mark), Sanders is in a great spot. Last year, the Redskins were No. 28 in rush defense (1.3% DVOA), and it’s hard to say that their stop unit has gotten better over the offseason.

Additionally, the Redskins are in disarray on offense. They are unsettled at every skill position, and seven-time Pro-Bowl left tackle Trent Williams is sitting out Week 1. The Redskins have one of the lowest implied Vegas totals on the slate at 17.5 points. Against an Eagles defense that last year was No. 5 with an 88.2 PFF grade, the Redskins should struggle to keep the ball.

And that means more possessions and offensive opportunities for Sanders.

Given his talent, circumstances and low cost, Sanders is a great option if you want to spend down without forfeiting upside.

Sanders is the No. 1 back in the Koerner Model for DraftKings, where he leads the position with a 98% Bargain Rating.

Upside Running Backs for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams ($7,900 DK, $7,600 FD): Gurley will be underowned relative to similarly priced options, he has a position-high 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and he is still the lead back on the team that over the past two years has led the NFL in scoring with 34.5 points per game and given him a total of 36 carries inside the five-yard line in 29 games.

David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals ($7,700 DK, $8,100 FD): DJ has averaged 109.0 yards and 0.91 touchdowns from scrimmage on 17.0 carries, 6.2 targets and 4.1 receptions per game over the past three years, and now he’s the lead back in the offense that could lead the league in pace of play and pass rate.

Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets ($7,100 DK, $7,900 FD): Bell is No. 1 among all backs over the past half decade with an average of 26.9 opportunities per game and No. 2 with 24.5 DraftKings points per game.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns ($6,400 DK, $7,400 FD): Chubb averaged 97.2 yards and 0.8 touchdowns across his 10 games last year as the lead back, and he’s No. 1 at the position with +5.58 DraftKings and +5.03 FanDuel Projected Plus/Minus values on the slate.

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,100 DK, $7,200 FD): Lenny has two back-of-mind rookies as his immediate backups, and he’s facing a Chiefs defense that last year ranked dead last in rush DVOA with a 9.8% mark.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers ($5,500 DK, $6,400 FD): Danny Woodhead 2.0 is expected start in place of Melvin Gordon (holdout), and Ekeler has averaged 16.5 DraftKings points, 79.4 yards and 0.7 touchdowns across his 10 career games with 10-plus touches.

Tevin Coleman, San Francisco 49ers ($5,000 DK, $6,300 FD): Coleman is slated to be the lead back in HC Kyle Shanahan’s king-making zone-blocking scheme, and he’s going against a Bucs defense that last year allowed opposing backfields to put up a top-five mark of 28.8 DraftKings points per game.

Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins ($4,700 DK, $6,000 FD): Drake is likely to get more than the 10.6 touches he’s averaged over the past two years, and he has position-high Leverage Scores (93% on DraftKings, 92% on FanDuel) thanks to his low ownership and high ceiling projections.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.