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NFL Week 1 Fantasy QB Breakdown: Play Jameis Winston vs. 49ers

nfl dfs week 1 breakdown-quarterback projections-jameis winston

The 2019 NFL regular season is upon us. This Sunday, Sep. 8, we have a full 12-game main slate that kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight the quarterbacks who have caught my eye the most while I’ve researched with our large suite of analytical DFS Tools. Specifically, I break down the guys who stand out in the FantasyLabs Models.

For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.

Let’s start with the quarterback at the top of the salary scale.

Patrick Mahomes: Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 52 Over/Under

  • DraftKings: $7,200
  • FanDuel: $8,700

The 2018 NFL Most Valuable Player, Mahomes was otherworldly in his first season as a starter. He led the league with his 9.6 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) and 80.3 Total QBR. With his 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns passing, Mahomes became only the second 5,000-50 quarterback in NFL history. The first was Peyton Manning in his record-setting 2013 MVP campaign.

To no one’s surprise, Mahomes had the most productive fantasy season ever for a quarterback.

In his 16 regular season games, Mahomes dominated with a position-high 28.8 DraftKings points per game, and despite having consistently high salaries, he led the position with an obscene +9.29 Plus/Minus.

And perhaps more importantly, Mahomes looked like a real quarterback. In a clean pocket, he had a league-best 131.0 QB Rating. And with his unrivaled ball velocity (60 mph), Mahomes regularly attacked defenses down the field, finishing the year No. 1 with 92 deep attempts (20-plus yards), 44 deep completions, 1,514 deep-passing yards and 15 deep touchdowns (per Pro Football Focus).

Last year Mahomes had more eruption games than any other quarterback.

While Mahomes will probably regress this season — who wouldn’t be likely to take a statistical step back after a 5,000-50 campaign? — he’s an intriguing option for Week 1.

Quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Mitchell Trubisky all play in primetime games, so they’re off the slate. As a result, Mahomes is in a tier unto himself this week.

As the highest-salaried quarterback, he’s not cheap, but he can still be rostered thanks to the value available at other positions, and Mahomes is extremely unlikely to have a poor game, given that he has position-high median, ceiling and floor projections in our Models.

This seems obvious to say, but Mahomes doesn’t have a great matchup. Last year, in what was a relatively down season, the Jaguars respectively held opposing teams and quarterbacks to 19.8 points and 17.1 DraftKings points per game, both of which were bottom-eight marks.

And in 2017, with the same core of key defensive players, they limited opposing teams and quarterbacks to bottom-two marks of 16.8 points and 12.4 DraftKings points per game.

With a unit anchored by edge rushers Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue, tackle Marcell Dareus, linebacker Myles Jack and shutdown cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, the Jags should once again be potent on defense.

But that doesn’t mean they will be able to hang with the Chiefs. As good as Ramsey and Bouye are, All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill should be able to get free at least a few times with his cheetah-like speed (4.24-second 40-yard dash).

As supplementary wide receivers, Sammy Watkins (4.43-second 40) and Mecole Hardman (4.33-second 40) should be able to pressure the Jags defense deep.

All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce is yet to meet a linebacker or safety who can regularly shut him down, and Jack and safeties Ronnie Harrison and Jarrod Wilson are nothing special in coverage.

And the Chiefs have two strong pass-catching running backs in Damien Williams and new addition LeSean McCoy, who put up 1,588 yards and eight touchdowns on 220 receptions to open his career with the Eagles in his four years under head coach Andy Reid.

As good as the Jags are on defense, the Chiefs are even better on offense. The Jags should be improved this year on offense with the addition of quarterback Nick Foles and coordinator John DeFilippo — but last year the Chiefs overwhelmed the Jags with a convincing 30-14 victory in Week 5.

Mahomes scored “just” 20.8 DraftKings points in that game, but he still managed 313 yards passing and a touchdown rushing. With his yardage total, he easily could’ve thrown a couple of touchdowns.

The Chiefs have a slate-high implied Vegas total of 28.0 points, and although they’re not at Arrowhead Stadium, it’s probably not that big of a detriment that they’re on the road.

With head coach Andy Reid (since 2013), no home team has made under bettors more money than the Chiefs have with their 33-18-1 under record (including playoffs), good for an A-graded 26.1% return on investment (per Bet Labs).



The outdoor Arrowhead Stadium is a hard place to play, and the Chiefs actually did better offensively on the road than at home last year.

  • Chiefs on road (eight games): 38.3 points per game, 325.3 yards and 3.88 touchdowns passing
  • Chiefs at home (eight games): 32.4 points per game, 294.1 yards and 2.38 touchdowns passing

Throughout the Reid era, the Chiefs are easily last in the NFL with their offensive home/road differential of -2.6 points per game.

Even though the Chiefs have a touch matchup and are on the road, I’m not at all worried.

How I feel about Mahomes in Week 1 is basically how FantasyLabs co-founder Jonathan Bales felt about cryptocurrency in February.

I am so happy football is back.

Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Jameis Winston: $6,600 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel
  • Lamar Jackson: $6,000 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel
  • Dak Prescott: $5,900 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel
  • Carson Wentz: $5,700 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel
  • Kirk Cousins: $5,500 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel

Jameis Winston: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK) vs. San Francisco 49ers, 50.0 O/U

Last year the Bucs were first in the league with 5,358 yards passing, and Winston had top-three marks with 10.8 air yards per attempt, 1.5 yards to the sticks per attempt and a 20.4% aggressiveness rate (per Next Gen Stats). When Winston was actually playing, he regularly pushed the ball down the field and displayed willingness to throw into tight coverage and trust his receivers.

And that makes sense: Winston has one of the league’s best WR-WR-TE trios in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard.

Evans is one of just three players in NFL history with 1,000-plus yards receiving in each of his first five seasons. Godwin is slated to be a full-time player this year, and in his six career games with 80% of the offensive snaps, he’s had 1,050 yards and eight touchdowns receiving extrapolated over a full season. And Howard has averaged 16.6 yards per reception in each of his two NFL campaigns.

Collectively, they are difficult for any secondary to contain.

With new HC Bruce Arians, who developed Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, oversaw Andrew Luck in his rookie season and coaxed career-best production out of Carson Palmer in Arizona, the volatile Winston should be able to discover his best professional self. Arians’ downfield-attacking Air Coryell system is especially likely to suit Winston’s aggressive playing style.

Although the 49ers have taken steps to improve their defense this offseason with the additions of edge rushers Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, linebacker Kwon Alexander and cornerback Jason Verrett, it’s fair to wonder if the defense will be significantly better, at least in Week 1: Bosa (ankle) is dealing with an injury, Ford is changing defensive schemes, Alexander has never had a Pro Football Focus grade of even 70.0 and Verrett (ankle) is far from certain to play against the Bucs.

Last year, Winston averaged 20.5 FanDuel points per game in his nine starts (despite being benched in two of those games), and against the 49ers in Week 12 he had 22.9 FanDuel points in a 27-9 home win with 312 yards and two touchdowns passing and an additional 24 yards rushing. That type of performance is well within his range of outcomes this week.

Despite a return to form last year from cornerback Richard Sherman, who held quarterbacks to just 365 yards and one touchdown on 532 coverage snaps, the 49ers were dead last in the league with a putrefied PFF coverage grade of 37.5.

With Sherman playing almost exclusively at left corner, opposing quarterbacks simply attacked right corner Ahkello Witherspoon and slot corner K’Waun Williams, who collectively allowed 0.92 yards per snap and 0.062 touchdowns per targets to Sherman’s marks of 0.68 and 0.025.

Against this defense, Winston should be able to put up points. He’s first among all quarterbacks with his +3.92 Projected Plus/Minus and 70% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s the No. 1 passer in the CSURAM88 and Koerner Models.

Lamar Jackson: Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Miami Dolphins, 37.5 O/U

Jackson is on the road, and this game easily has the slate’s lowest point total, so we shouldn’t expect an ostentatious display of offense. But the Ravens are healthy favorites, and the Dolphins are already in full-on tank mode.

Last year the Dolphins ranked No. 28 with a 63.2 PFF pass-blocking grade, and that was with left tackle Laremy Tunsil, whom the team just traded away for two first-round picks and a second-round selection. Included in the deal was No. 1 wide receiver Kenny Stills. On offense, the Dolphins will struggle to sustain drives against a Ravens defense that last year was No. 2 in the league with just 17.9 points allowed per game.

As a result, Jackson and the Ravens offense should control the ball for much of the game.

And the Dolphins defense probably won’t put up much resistance. Gone from the front seven are edge defenders Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn, tackle Akeem Spence and linebacker Kiko Alonso. The Ravens should be able to run against the Dolphins, which is good for Jackson: In his eight starts last year (including playoffs), he averaged 76.3 yards and 0.5 touchdowns rushing on 16 carries per game. Even with some expected regression as a runner, Jackson has plenty of Konami Code upside.

And his rushing ability also gives him a high floor. Despite entering the lineup in the middle of the season and running an offense constructed for him on the fly, Jackson averaged 18.9 FanDuel points per game as a starter with an outstanding 87.5% Consistency Rating. In not one start did Jackson score fewer than 16.0 FanDuel points.

And now with a full offseason to learn the offense under new coordinator Greg Roman, who respectively coached dual-threat quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor to career-best performances in 2013 and 2015, Jackson should build upon his rookie campaign.

I think it’s especially likely that Jackson will improve as a passer. He completed just 56.8% of his attempts in 2018 at the age of 21, but he improved his passing percentage each year he was at Louisville.

  • 2015: 54.7%
  • 2016: 56.2%
  • 2017: 59.1%

Under Roman, the comparable Kaepernick and Taylor had completion rates of 60.1% and 63.7%. With more pass-friendly rules in place, Jackson should progress, especially with the addition of rookie wide receivers Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin and development of second-year tight ends Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst, all of whom have been selected with top-100 picks in the past two drafts.

And in Week 1, Jackson probably won’t need to be great to put up points. If he’s merely average, that will be sufficient. Last year, the Dolphins ranked No. 30 with a 57.0 PFF coverage grade and allowed opposing quarterbacks a top-eight mark of 19.8 FanDuel points per game.

In guaranteed prize pools, Jackson is very stackable with the Ravens defense.

Jackson is the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales, Levitan, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models on FanDuel, where he’s tied for the position lead in Pro Trends.

Dak Prescott: Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. New York Giants, 45.5 O/U

As a self-loathing Cowboys fan, I’m probably going to bet against them this week. Under head coach Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 17-33-1 against the spread as home favorites (including the postseason), making opponent bettors an A-graded 29.5% ROI (per BetLabs).

With Garrett, the Cowboys play down to the level of inferior opponents.

But that doesn’t mean you should fade Dak this week. Throughout his career, Dak has been at his best as a home favorite.

  • Home favorite (18 games, regular season): 67.7% completion rate, 249.8 yards passing, 1.67 passing touchdowns, 0.44 interceptions, 22.8 rushing yards, 0.44 rushing touchdowns
  • All other situations (30 games, regular season): 64.9% completion rate, 211.7 yards passing, 1.23 passing touchdowns, 0.57 interceptions, 17.8 rushing yards, 0.33 rushing touchdowns

In his 20 games as a home favorite (including playoffs), Dak has 21.9 DraftKings points per game with a strong +5.00 Plus/Minus and 80.0% Consistency Rating.

Other than being a home favorite, Dak has four main factors in his favor for this game.

First is the return of All-Pro center Travis Frederick (Guillain-Barre Syndrome) and development of second-year left guard Connor Williams. Frederick missed all of last season, and Williams struggled to a 57.3 PFF grade as a rookie. Frederick is reportedly healthy, and Williams has added weight this offseason in order to be better on the interior. With an improved line, Dak should operate with a clean pocket.

Secondly, after joining the team in the middle of the 2018 season, wide receiver Amari Cooper has had an offseason to learn the offense better and develop more of a connection with Dak. And the impact Cooper had on Dak’s performance last year was notable.

  • With Cooper (Weeks 8-19): 20.9 DraftKings points, 70.1% completion rate, 7.9 AY/A, 269.1 yards and 1.45 touchdowns passing
  • Without Cooper (Weeks 1-7): 17.0 DraftKings points, 62.1% completion rate, 6.8 AY/A, 202.4 yards and 1.14 touchdowns passing

It’s possible that Dak and Amari could be even better together this year.

Additionally, running back Ezekiel Elliott could be limited in Week 1. With Zeke, the Cowboys have had a 53.0% pass rate. In their eight games without him, that number has moved up to 55.0%. The difference in that split could simply be noise, but if Zeke is limited, the Cowboys could deemphasize the running game and give Dak a few extra pass attempts. Further, without Zeke playing full snaps, Dak could also have a few more rushing attempts.

Finally, the matchup is a good one for Dak. In Week 17 last year against the Giants, he went off for 36.5 DraftKings points on the strength of a 387-yard, four-touchdown performance. In the offseason, the Giants added strong safety Jabrill Peppers and two first-round rookies in tackle Dexter Lawrence and cornerback Deandre Baker, but they also traded edge rusher Olivier Vernon and lost Landon Collins via free agency. Even if the Giants defense is better this year, it probably won’t be markedly improved.

In 2018, the Giants were No. 26 with a 71.5 PFF defensive grade and No. 27 with a 68.8 PFF coverage grade. They’re likely exploitable.

Prescott is the No. 1 DraftKings quarterback in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.

Carson Wentz: Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5) vs. Washington Redskins, 46.0 O/U

There’s nothing exceptional about Wentz’s matchup with the Redskins, who last year were No. 20 in defensive DVOA with a mark of 1.7% (per Football Outsiders). For the most part, the Redskins have a run-of-the-mill, mediocre defense.

Nevertheless, Wentz is in play, in part because the Redskins are in total disarray on offense. Quarterback Case Keenum last year was No. 30 with a 6.1 AY/A. He could conceivably be benched as early as halftime for rookie Dwayne Haskins. Seven-time Pro-Bowl left tackle Trent Williams is sitting out Week 1 because of his dissatisfaction with the team.

The Redskins just released No. 1 wide receiver Josh Doctson, and the depth chart after him (Paul Richardson, Trey Quinn, Terry McLaurin and Kelvin Harmon) is thin and unproven. Tight end Jordan Reed is in the concussion protocol and uncertain to play.

The team’s top running backs are a 34-year-old script-dependent grinder in Adrian Peterson and two scheme-limited backups with injury questions in Derrius Guice and Chris Thompson.

The Redskins have one of the lowest implied Vegas totals on the slate at 18.5 points. Against an Eagles defense that last year was No. 5 with an 88.2 PFF grade, the Redskins should struggle to keep the ball.

And that means more possessions and offensive opportunities for Wentz and the Eagles, who are at home and the biggest favorites on the slate. In his 17 games as a home favorite (including playoffs), Wentz has scored 20.3 DraftKings points per game with a +3.28 Plus/Minus.

Unsurprisingly, Wentz has been at his best throughout his career as a home favorite.

  • Home favorite (17 games, regular season): 66.4% completion rate, 255.4 yards passing, 2.06 passing touchdowns, 0.5 interceptions, 15.9 rushing yards, 0.06 rushing touchdowns
  • All other situations (24 games, regular season): 62.1% completion rate, 252.4 yards passing, 1.54 passing touchdowns, 0.83 interceptions, 12.0 rushing yards, 0.04 rushing touchdowns

It’s somewhat easy to doubt Wentz because he has missed eight regular season games over the past two years, and in 2018 he was just No. 23 with 0.47 fantasy points per dropback (per PFF).

But last year he was still recovering from his 2017 season-ending knee injury, and he was also hampered by the back injury that cut his campaign short. Even so, Wentz finished the year No. 3 with a 69.6% completion rate and No. 10 with a 7.9 AY/A.

It’s not unthinkable that this year Wentz could return to the MVP-esque form he exhibited in 2017, when he was tied at No. 2 with 0.57 fantasy points per dropback: The Eagles return all the starters on their offensive line, and they upgraded the offense this offseason with the addition of running backs Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard and wide receivers DeSean Jackson and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside.

With the circumstances and the talent around him, there’s no reason Wentz can’t have a big game. He’s the No. 1 quarterback in the Koerner Model for DraftKings, where he leads the position with six Pro Trends and a +4.39 Projected Plus/Minus.

Kirk Cousins: Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 48 O/U

Cousins had a mixed campaign last year in his first season with the Vikings. On the one hand, he was No. 2 with a career-high 70.1% completion rate. On the other hand, he was No. 17 with a 7.3 AY/A and No. 23 with 0.45 fantasy points per dropback.

Along with the steady Philip Rivers, Cousins is one of just two quarterbacks with at least 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns passing in each of the past four seasons, so it’s hard to knock him. Last year, Cousins was one of just three quarterbacks (along with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jared Goff) to have multiple games with 400-plus yards and three-plus touchdowns passing.

At his best, Cousins is as good as anyone.

But in 2018 he also had five games with just one touchdown and fewer than 250 yards passing. Cousins can have some chasmic lows.

And there are some factors not in his favor for this game.

For the first 14 weeks of the 2018 season, the Vikings were the second-most pass-heavy team in the league. Under offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, they had a pass-play rate of 67.0%. But HC Mike Zimmer fired DeFilippo, in part because he wanted the team to run more.

And in Weeks 15-17, the team ranked No. 9 with a 48.0% run rate under interim coordinator Kevin Stefanski. Now the full-time coordinator, Stefanski is almost certain to continue to emphasize the running game, especially since the Vikings brought in rushing guru Gary Kubiak to serve as an offensive assistant.

So Cousins is unlikely to see the passing volume he had for most of last year.

On top of that, the offensive line is bad. Last year, it ranked No. 27 with a 63.7 PFF pass-blocking grade. Changes have been made to the line with the addition of center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Josh Kline, so the line might be better. But Bradbury is a rookie, and Kline had a 58.0 PFF grade in 2018.

The offensive line could be just as subpar this year as it has been previously.

Finally, the Falcons will have some key defensive players they were without for most of last season, namely middle linebacker Deion Jones and safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen.

Even so, Cousins has one of the best WR-WR-RB pass-catching trios in the league with Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Dalvin Cook, and he’s facing the defense that last year allowed a league-high 23.6 DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

As an inexpensive option and potential pivot off of the similarly-priced Kyler Murray in guaranteed prize pools, Cousins is appealing. He’s the No. 1 DraftKings quarterback in the Levitan, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models.

Upside Quarterbacks for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers ($6,500 DK, $7,900 FD): Newton in Weeks 1-7 last year was the No. 4 quarterback with 24.7 FanDuel points per game and a 100% Consistency Rating before a shoulder injury hindered his season.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns ($6,400 DK, $7,900 FD): Mayfield led all quarterbacks with a 53.7% accuracy rate on deep attempts after HC Freddie Kitchens took over the offense last year, and now Baker has All-Pro wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and air-yard maven offensive coordinator Todd Monken at his disposal.

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks ($6,300 DK, $8,200 FD): Wilson is the only quarterback to throw 30-plus touchdowns in each of the past two seasons, and he’s favored by 9.5 points at home against a Bengals defense that last year allowed opposing quarterbacks a top-four mark of 22.9 DraftKings points per game.

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams ($6,200 DK, $7,800 FD): Goff joins Brees, Rivers and Watson as just one of four quarterbacks with at least an 8.0 AY/A in each of the past two years.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons ($6,100 DK, $8,000 FD): Ryan has a position-high 86% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and 4,000-plus yards passing in each season since wide receiver Julio Jones entered the league in 2011.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills ($5,600 DK, $6,900 FD): Allen was the No. 1 fantasy quarterback last year in Weeks 12-17 with 24.2 points per game after returning from an elbow injury, and he’s facing a Jets team that in 2018 allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks with 19.8.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals ($5,600 DK, $7,300 FD): Murray is Michael Vick — except with accuracy and head coach Kliff Kingsbury.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Jameis Winston
Photo credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

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The 2019 NFL regular season is upon us. This Sunday, Sep. 8, we have a full 12-game main slate that kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight the quarterbacks who have caught my eye the most while I’ve researched with our large suite of analytical DFS Tools. Specifically, I break down the guys who stand out in the FantasyLabs Models.

For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.

Let’s start with the quarterback at the top of the salary scale.

Patrick Mahomes: Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 52 Over/Under

  • DraftKings: $7,200
  • FanDuel: $8,700

The 2018 NFL Most Valuable Player, Mahomes was otherworldly in his first season as a starter. He led the league with his 9.6 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) and 80.3 Total QBR. With his 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns passing, Mahomes became only the second 5,000-50 quarterback in NFL history. The first was Peyton Manning in his record-setting 2013 MVP campaign.

To no one’s surprise, Mahomes had the most productive fantasy season ever for a quarterback.

In his 16 regular season games, Mahomes dominated with a position-high 28.8 DraftKings points per game, and despite having consistently high salaries, he led the position with an obscene +9.29 Plus/Minus.

And perhaps more importantly, Mahomes looked like a real quarterback. In a clean pocket, he had a league-best 131.0 QB Rating. And with his unrivaled ball velocity (60 mph), Mahomes regularly attacked defenses down the field, finishing the year No. 1 with 92 deep attempts (20-plus yards), 44 deep completions, 1,514 deep-passing yards and 15 deep touchdowns (per Pro Football Focus).

Last year Mahomes had more eruption games than any other quarterback.

While Mahomes will probably regress this season — who wouldn’t be likely to take a statistical step back after a 5,000-50 campaign? — he’s an intriguing option for Week 1.

Quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Mitchell Trubisky all play in primetime games, so they’re off the slate. As a result, Mahomes is in a tier unto himself this week.

As the highest-salaried quarterback, he’s not cheap, but he can still be rostered thanks to the value available at other positions, and Mahomes is extremely unlikely to have a poor game, given that he has position-high median, ceiling and floor projections in our Models.

This seems obvious to say, but Mahomes doesn’t have a great matchup. Last year, in what was a relatively down season, the Jaguars respectively held opposing teams and quarterbacks to 19.8 points and 17.1 DraftKings points per game, both of which were bottom-eight marks.

And in 2017, with the same core of key defensive players, they limited opposing teams and quarterbacks to bottom-two marks of 16.8 points and 12.4 DraftKings points per game.

With a unit anchored by edge rushers Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue, tackle Marcell Dareus, linebacker Myles Jack and shutdown cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, the Jags should once again be potent on defense.

But that doesn’t mean they will be able to hang with the Chiefs. As good as Ramsey and Bouye are, All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill should be able to get free at least a few times with his cheetah-like speed (4.24-second 40-yard dash).

As supplementary wide receivers, Sammy Watkins (4.43-second 40) and Mecole Hardman (4.33-second 40) should be able to pressure the Jags defense deep.

All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce is yet to meet a linebacker or safety who can regularly shut him down, and Jack and safeties Ronnie Harrison and Jarrod Wilson are nothing special in coverage.

And the Chiefs have two strong pass-catching running backs in Damien Williams and new addition LeSean McCoy, who put up 1,588 yards and eight touchdowns on 220 receptions to open his career with the Eagles in his four years under head coach Andy Reid.

As good as the Jags are on defense, the Chiefs are even better on offense. The Jags should be improved this year on offense with the addition of quarterback Nick Foles and coordinator John DeFilippo — but last year the Chiefs overwhelmed the Jags with a convincing 30-14 victory in Week 5.

Mahomes scored “just” 20.8 DraftKings points in that game, but he still managed 313 yards passing and a touchdown rushing. With his yardage total, he easily could’ve thrown a couple of touchdowns.

The Chiefs have a slate-high implied Vegas total of 28.0 points, and although they’re not at Arrowhead Stadium, it’s probably not that big of a detriment that they’re on the road.

With head coach Andy Reid (since 2013), no home team has made under bettors more money than the Chiefs have with their 33-18-1 under record (including playoffs), good for an A-graded 26.1% return on investment (per Bet Labs).



The outdoor Arrowhead Stadium is a hard place to play, and the Chiefs actually did better offensively on the road than at home last year.

  • Chiefs on road (eight games): 38.3 points per game, 325.3 yards and 3.88 touchdowns passing
  • Chiefs at home (eight games): 32.4 points per game, 294.1 yards and 2.38 touchdowns passing

Throughout the Reid era, the Chiefs are easily last in the NFL with their offensive home/road differential of -2.6 points per game.

Even though the Chiefs have a touch matchup and are on the road, I’m not at all worried.

How I feel about Mahomes in Week 1 is basically how FantasyLabs co-founder Jonathan Bales felt about cryptocurrency in February.

I am so happy football is back.

Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Jameis Winston: $6,600 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel
  • Lamar Jackson: $6,000 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel
  • Dak Prescott: $5,900 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel
  • Carson Wentz: $5,700 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel
  • Kirk Cousins: $5,500 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel

Jameis Winston: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK) vs. San Francisco 49ers, 50.0 O/U

Last year the Bucs were first in the league with 5,358 yards passing, and Winston had top-three marks with 10.8 air yards per attempt, 1.5 yards to the sticks per attempt and a 20.4% aggressiveness rate (per Next Gen Stats). When Winston was actually playing, he regularly pushed the ball down the field and displayed willingness to throw into tight coverage and trust his receivers.

And that makes sense: Winston has one of the league’s best WR-WR-TE trios in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard.

Evans is one of just three players in NFL history with 1,000-plus yards receiving in each of his first five seasons. Godwin is slated to be a full-time player this year, and in his six career games with 80% of the offensive snaps, he’s had 1,050 yards and eight touchdowns receiving extrapolated over a full season. And Howard has averaged 16.6 yards per reception in each of his two NFL campaigns.

Collectively, they are difficult for any secondary to contain.

With new HC Bruce Arians, who developed Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, oversaw Andrew Luck in his rookie season and coaxed career-best production out of Carson Palmer in Arizona, the volatile Winston should be able to discover his best professional self. Arians’ downfield-attacking Air Coryell system is especially likely to suit Winston’s aggressive playing style.

Although the 49ers have taken steps to improve their defense this offseason with the additions of edge rushers Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, linebacker Kwon Alexander and cornerback Jason Verrett, it’s fair to wonder if the defense will be significantly better, at least in Week 1: Bosa (ankle) is dealing with an injury, Ford is changing defensive schemes, Alexander has never had a Pro Football Focus grade of even 70.0 and Verrett (ankle) is far from certain to play against the Bucs.

Last year, Winston averaged 20.5 FanDuel points per game in his nine starts (despite being benched in two of those games), and against the 49ers in Week 12 he had 22.9 FanDuel points in a 27-9 home win with 312 yards and two touchdowns passing and an additional 24 yards rushing. That type of performance is well within his range of outcomes this week.

Despite a return to form last year from cornerback Richard Sherman, who held quarterbacks to just 365 yards and one touchdown on 532 coverage snaps, the 49ers were dead last in the league with a putrefied PFF coverage grade of 37.5.

With Sherman playing almost exclusively at left corner, opposing quarterbacks simply attacked right corner Ahkello Witherspoon and slot corner K’Waun Williams, who collectively allowed 0.92 yards per snap and 0.062 touchdowns per targets to Sherman’s marks of 0.68 and 0.025.

Against this defense, Winston should be able to put up points. He’s first among all quarterbacks with his +3.92 Projected Plus/Minus and 70% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s the No. 1 passer in the CSURAM88 and Koerner Models.

Lamar Jackson: Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Miami Dolphins, 37.5 O/U

Jackson is on the road, and this game easily has the slate’s lowest point total, so we shouldn’t expect an ostentatious display of offense. But the Ravens are healthy favorites, and the Dolphins are already in full-on tank mode.

Last year the Dolphins ranked No. 28 with a 63.2 PFF pass-blocking grade, and that was with left tackle Laremy Tunsil, whom the team just traded away for two first-round picks and a second-round selection. Included in the deal was No. 1 wide receiver Kenny Stills. On offense, the Dolphins will struggle to sustain drives against a Ravens defense that last year was No. 2 in the league with just 17.9 points allowed per game.

As a result, Jackson and the Ravens offense should control the ball for much of the game.

And the Dolphins defense probably won’t put up much resistance. Gone from the front seven are edge defenders Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn, tackle Akeem Spence and linebacker Kiko Alonso. The Ravens should be able to run against the Dolphins, which is good for Jackson: In his eight starts last year (including playoffs), he averaged 76.3 yards and 0.5 touchdowns rushing on 16 carries per game. Even with some expected regression as a runner, Jackson has plenty of Konami Code upside.

And his rushing ability also gives him a high floor. Despite entering the lineup in the middle of the season and running an offense constructed for him on the fly, Jackson averaged 18.9 FanDuel points per game as a starter with an outstanding 87.5% Consistency Rating. In not one start did Jackson score fewer than 16.0 FanDuel points.

And now with a full offseason to learn the offense under new coordinator Greg Roman, who respectively coached dual-threat quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor to career-best performances in 2013 and 2015, Jackson should build upon his rookie campaign.

I think it’s especially likely that Jackson will improve as a passer. He completed just 56.8% of his attempts in 2018 at the age of 21, but he improved his passing percentage each year he was at Louisville.

  • 2015: 54.7%
  • 2016: 56.2%
  • 2017: 59.1%

Under Roman, the comparable Kaepernick and Taylor had completion rates of 60.1% and 63.7%. With more pass-friendly rules in place, Jackson should progress, especially with the addition of rookie wide receivers Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin and development of second-year tight ends Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst, all of whom have been selected with top-100 picks in the past two drafts.

And in Week 1, Jackson probably won’t need to be great to put up points. If he’s merely average, that will be sufficient. Last year, the Dolphins ranked No. 30 with a 57.0 PFF coverage grade and allowed opposing quarterbacks a top-eight mark of 19.8 FanDuel points per game.

In guaranteed prize pools, Jackson is very stackable with the Ravens defense.

Jackson is the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales, Levitan, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models on FanDuel, where he’s tied for the position lead in Pro Trends.

Dak Prescott: Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. New York Giants, 45.5 O/U

As a self-loathing Cowboys fan, I’m probably going to bet against them this week. Under head coach Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 17-33-1 against the spread as home favorites (including the postseason), making opponent bettors an A-graded 29.5% ROI (per BetLabs).

With Garrett, the Cowboys play down to the level of inferior opponents.

But that doesn’t mean you should fade Dak this week. Throughout his career, Dak has been at his best as a home favorite.

  • Home favorite (18 games, regular season): 67.7% completion rate, 249.8 yards passing, 1.67 passing touchdowns, 0.44 interceptions, 22.8 rushing yards, 0.44 rushing touchdowns
  • All other situations (30 games, regular season): 64.9% completion rate, 211.7 yards passing, 1.23 passing touchdowns, 0.57 interceptions, 17.8 rushing yards, 0.33 rushing touchdowns

In his 20 games as a home favorite (including playoffs), Dak has 21.9 DraftKings points per game with a strong +5.00 Plus/Minus and 80.0% Consistency Rating.

Other than being a home favorite, Dak has four main factors in his favor for this game.

First is the return of All-Pro center Travis Frederick (Guillain-Barre Syndrome) and development of second-year left guard Connor Williams. Frederick missed all of last season, and Williams struggled to a 57.3 PFF grade as a rookie. Frederick is reportedly healthy, and Williams has added weight this offseason in order to be better on the interior. With an improved line, Dak should operate with a clean pocket.

Secondly, after joining the team in the middle of the 2018 season, wide receiver Amari Cooper has had an offseason to learn the offense better and develop more of a connection with Dak. And the impact Cooper had on Dak’s performance last year was notable.

  • With Cooper (Weeks 8-19): 20.9 DraftKings points, 70.1% completion rate, 7.9 AY/A, 269.1 yards and 1.45 touchdowns passing
  • Without Cooper (Weeks 1-7): 17.0 DraftKings points, 62.1% completion rate, 6.8 AY/A, 202.4 yards and 1.14 touchdowns passing

It’s possible that Dak and Amari could be even better together this year.

Additionally, running back Ezekiel Elliott could be limited in Week 1. With Zeke, the Cowboys have had a 53.0% pass rate. In their eight games without him, that number has moved up to 55.0%. The difference in that split could simply be noise, but if Zeke is limited, the Cowboys could deemphasize the running game and give Dak a few extra pass attempts. Further, without Zeke playing full snaps, Dak could also have a few more rushing attempts.

Finally, the matchup is a good one for Dak. In Week 17 last year against the Giants, he went off for 36.5 DraftKings points on the strength of a 387-yard, four-touchdown performance. In the offseason, the Giants added strong safety Jabrill Peppers and two first-round rookies in tackle Dexter Lawrence and cornerback Deandre Baker, but they also traded edge rusher Olivier Vernon and lost Landon Collins via free agency. Even if the Giants defense is better this year, it probably won’t be markedly improved.

In 2018, the Giants were No. 26 with a 71.5 PFF defensive grade and No. 27 with a 68.8 PFF coverage grade. They’re likely exploitable.

Prescott is the No. 1 DraftKings quarterback in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.

Carson Wentz: Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5) vs. Washington Redskins, 46.0 O/U

There’s nothing exceptional about Wentz’s matchup with the Redskins, who last year were No. 20 in defensive DVOA with a mark of 1.7% (per Football Outsiders). For the most part, the Redskins have a run-of-the-mill, mediocre defense.

Nevertheless, Wentz is in play, in part because the Redskins are in total disarray on offense. Quarterback Case Keenum last year was No. 30 with a 6.1 AY/A. He could conceivably be benched as early as halftime for rookie Dwayne Haskins. Seven-time Pro-Bowl left tackle Trent Williams is sitting out Week 1 because of his dissatisfaction with the team.

The Redskins just released No. 1 wide receiver Josh Doctson, and the depth chart after him (Paul Richardson, Trey Quinn, Terry McLaurin and Kelvin Harmon) is thin and unproven. Tight end Jordan Reed is in the concussion protocol and uncertain to play.

The team’s top running backs are a 34-year-old script-dependent grinder in Adrian Peterson and two scheme-limited backups with injury questions in Derrius Guice and Chris Thompson.

The Redskins have one of the lowest implied Vegas totals on the slate at 18.5 points. Against an Eagles defense that last year was No. 5 with an 88.2 PFF grade, the Redskins should struggle to keep the ball.

And that means more possessions and offensive opportunities for Wentz and the Eagles, who are at home and the biggest favorites on the slate. In his 17 games as a home favorite (including playoffs), Wentz has scored 20.3 DraftKings points per game with a +3.28 Plus/Minus.

Unsurprisingly, Wentz has been at his best throughout his career as a home favorite.

  • Home favorite (17 games, regular season): 66.4% completion rate, 255.4 yards passing, 2.06 passing touchdowns, 0.5 interceptions, 15.9 rushing yards, 0.06 rushing touchdowns
  • All other situations (24 games, regular season): 62.1% completion rate, 252.4 yards passing, 1.54 passing touchdowns, 0.83 interceptions, 12.0 rushing yards, 0.04 rushing touchdowns

It’s somewhat easy to doubt Wentz because he has missed eight regular season games over the past two years, and in 2018 he was just No. 23 with 0.47 fantasy points per dropback (per PFF).

But last year he was still recovering from his 2017 season-ending knee injury, and he was also hampered by the back injury that cut his campaign short. Even so, Wentz finished the year No. 3 with a 69.6% completion rate and No. 10 with a 7.9 AY/A.

It’s not unthinkable that this year Wentz could return to the MVP-esque form he exhibited in 2017, when he was tied at No. 2 with 0.57 fantasy points per dropback: The Eagles return all the starters on their offensive line, and they upgraded the offense this offseason with the addition of running backs Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard and wide receivers DeSean Jackson and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside.

With the circumstances and the talent around him, there’s no reason Wentz can’t have a big game. He’s the No. 1 quarterback in the Koerner Model for DraftKings, where he leads the position with six Pro Trends and a +4.39 Projected Plus/Minus.

Kirk Cousins: Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 48 O/U

Cousins had a mixed campaign last year in his first season with the Vikings. On the one hand, he was No. 2 with a career-high 70.1% completion rate. On the other hand, he was No. 17 with a 7.3 AY/A and No. 23 with 0.45 fantasy points per dropback.

Along with the steady Philip Rivers, Cousins is one of just two quarterbacks with at least 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns passing in each of the past four seasons, so it’s hard to knock him. Last year, Cousins was one of just three quarterbacks (along with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jared Goff) to have multiple games with 400-plus yards and three-plus touchdowns passing.

At his best, Cousins is as good as anyone.

But in 2018 he also had five games with just one touchdown and fewer than 250 yards passing. Cousins can have some chasmic lows.

And there are some factors not in his favor for this game.

For the first 14 weeks of the 2018 season, the Vikings were the second-most pass-heavy team in the league. Under offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, they had a pass-play rate of 67.0%. But HC Mike Zimmer fired DeFilippo, in part because he wanted the team to run more.

And in Weeks 15-17, the team ranked No. 9 with a 48.0% run rate under interim coordinator Kevin Stefanski. Now the full-time coordinator, Stefanski is almost certain to continue to emphasize the running game, especially since the Vikings brought in rushing guru Gary Kubiak to serve as an offensive assistant.

So Cousins is unlikely to see the passing volume he had for most of last year.

On top of that, the offensive line is bad. Last year, it ranked No. 27 with a 63.7 PFF pass-blocking grade. Changes have been made to the line with the addition of center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Josh Kline, so the line might be better. But Bradbury is a rookie, and Kline had a 58.0 PFF grade in 2018.

The offensive line could be just as subpar this year as it has been previously.

Finally, the Falcons will have some key defensive players they were without for most of last season, namely middle linebacker Deion Jones and safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen.

Even so, Cousins has one of the best WR-WR-RB pass-catching trios in the league with Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Dalvin Cook, and he’s facing the defense that last year allowed a league-high 23.6 DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

As an inexpensive option and potential pivot off of the similarly-priced Kyler Murray in guaranteed prize pools, Cousins is appealing. He’s the No. 1 DraftKings quarterback in the Levitan, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models.

Upside Quarterbacks for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers ($6,500 DK, $7,900 FD): Newton in Weeks 1-7 last year was the No. 4 quarterback with 24.7 FanDuel points per game and a 100% Consistency Rating before a shoulder injury hindered his season.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns ($6,400 DK, $7,900 FD): Mayfield led all quarterbacks with a 53.7% accuracy rate on deep attempts after HC Freddie Kitchens took over the offense last year, and now Baker has All-Pro wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and air-yard maven offensive coordinator Todd Monken at his disposal.

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks ($6,300 DK, $8,200 FD): Wilson is the only quarterback to throw 30-plus touchdowns in each of the past two seasons, and he’s favored by 9.5 points at home against a Bengals defense that last year allowed opposing quarterbacks a top-four mark of 22.9 DraftKings points per game.

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams ($6,200 DK, $7,800 FD): Goff joins Brees, Rivers and Watson as just one of four quarterbacks with at least an 8.0 AY/A in each of the past two years.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons ($6,100 DK, $8,000 FD): Ryan has a position-high 86% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and 4,000-plus yards passing in each season since wide receiver Julio Jones entered the league in 2011.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills ($5,600 DK, $6,900 FD): Allen was the No. 1 fantasy quarterback last year in Weeks 12-17 with 24.2 points per game after returning from an elbow injury, and he’s facing a Jets team that in 2018 allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks with 19.8.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals ($5,600 DK, $7,300 FD): Murray is Michael Vick — except with accuracy and head coach Kliff Kingsbury.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Jameis Winston
Photo credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.