August is rapidly coming to a close, which means the most wonderful time of year is upon us: NFL DFS season. There are just over two weeks left before 2022’s first main slate kicks off. It’s never too soon to get a jump on the competition, so below, we’ll preview the top values in our NFL Player Models.
Of course, these models update frequently. Things could change between now and Week 1, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack. If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
For full access to our models, you’ll need to sign up for a FantasyLabs subscription:
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts ($6,800) Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Detroit Lions (48 total)
Hurts leads our models in median and ceiling projection at quarterback. Despite that, he checks in at fifth in salary at the position. His dual-threat ability is simply too much to overcome for pure pocket passers. He rushed for 784 yards and 10 scores last year through just 15 games. That’s an average of over nine DraftKings points per game without throwing a pass.
Hurts also has an ideal matchup with the Lions. The Lions added edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson in the offseason, but outside of that should look fairly similar on defense as last year’s 31st-ranked unit in points allowed. On the other hand, Detroit’s offense should be much improved, keeping this one close — and the Eagles aggressive — down the stretch.
That’s plenty of reasons to play Hurts without even mentioning the Eagles’ big offseason acquisition, A.J. Brown.
Brown gives Hurts the first true alpha receiver of his career and is a vertical threat who could help Hurts pick up yards and touchdowns in a hurry. Against a weak Detroit secondary, we should see the new pairing take off in Week 1.
Wide Receiver
Tee Higgins ($6,100) Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (44.5 total)
Teammate Ja’Marr Chase gets most of the fanfare in Cincinnati, but it would be unwise to overlook Higgins. When active last season, Chase had a 23.35% target share — Higgins was 23.57%. Even their aDOTs are far more similar than most would assume. Both are over 12 yards, with Chase edging out Higgins by less than six-tenths of a yard.
The biggest difference in their fantasy production really came down to touchdowns. Chase beat Higgins 13 to six in that category. However, touchdowns are inherently high-variance, so those numbers should be much closer this season.
All of which is to say, if you like Chase at $7,100, getting Higgins at $6,100 is an absolute steal.
He trails only Parris Campbell in Pts/Sal projections for Week 1. If last year’s usage continues — and there’s no reason to believe it won’t — Higgins will be priced much closer to Chase in the near future.
Running Back
Najee Harris ($6,400) Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (44.5 total)
With DraftKings releasing Week 1 salaries so early in the preseason, a lot can happen once prices are locked in. In recent years, it feels like there was always one starting running back to get hurt in training camp, creating a massive value for their backup.
That wasn’t the case this year (so far), so there isn’t really an “obvious” Week 1 value. However, Najee Harris looks like a pretty strong play. This is the cheapest he’s been since Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season, and he has the ideal usage for a running back on full-PPR DraftKings.
He led the position in receptions last year with 74 and should see a lot of looks in Week 1 with a projected negative game script. I’m somewhat bearish long-term on new quarterbacks Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett continuing to look Harris’ way as often as Ben Roethlisberger did. However, they may have to in Week 1, with a negative game script and still poor offensive line.
Harris leads all running backs on DraftKings in Projected Plus/Minus.
Tight End
Hayden Hurst ($3,300) Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (44.5 total)
Paying down at tight end is generally my preferred strategy, and Week 1 looks to be no different. Unless we get some slate-breaking news at running back, salary will be fairly tight to start the season. That’s where Hurst comes in.
He’s taking over the starting tight end job in Cincinnati following the departure of C.J. Uzomah to the Jets. Uzomah drew 63 targets in 16 games last season for the Bengals. Roughly four targets per game is an acceptable level for a tight end at Hurst’s salary, even if it’s nothing to get excited about.
Hurst is probably the more talented of the two, though. He averaged a higher catch rate and deeper aDOT — which is impressive since those tend to negatively correlate — in a far worse offense with Atlanta last season. This will be his first opportunity to be a full-time NFL starter, so his salary still reflects more of a backup role.
With all the weaponry around him in Cincinnati, Hurst should have plenty of holes against the Steelers in Week 1. I expect him to be in the $4,000+ range within a couple of weeks, making now the time to fit him in your lineups.
He leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings in Week 1.
