We have almost arrived! After an exciting offseason and preseason, the NFL is ready to return to action with a huge Week 1 to start the season. After primetime matchups on Thursday and Friday, there are 12 games on the main DFS slate to get the season off to a strong start. Eight games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET, stacking up plenty of good matchups early, with four games in the late wave at either 4:05 p.m. ET or 4:25 p.m. ET.
The start of a new season provides our first look at exciting new rookies and offseason acquisitions in their new homes. It’s a little tricky to read matchups without seeing defenses in action, but there are still some strong options to consider from all across the board as you assemble your Week 1 NFL DFS lineups. The highest over/under on the slate is the Sunshine State showdown between the Dolphins and Jaguars, but the Bills actually have the highest implied team total.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Anthony Richardson ($6,300) Indianapolis Colts (+3) vs. Houston Texans (48.5 total)
The Colts open with a big AFC South matchup against the Texans, and both teams have lots of optimism heading into the season. While the Texans upgraded their offense with outside additions, the Colts are hoping their offense improves with Richardson’s return.
In his first game since Week 5 of last season, Richardson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any quarterback in the FantasyLabs projections and THE BLITZ projections. He’s a little lower in Chris Raybon’s projections but still has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in an evenly-blended three-way aggregate and is tied for the most Pts/Sal. He also matches the most Pro Trends of any QB on Sunday’s slate.
Richardson showed off his high ceiling in his brief rookie season. He had 21.9 DraftKings points against the Jaguars in Week 1 last season and posted another impressive total in Week 4 with 30.6 fantasy points against the Rams. He ran for four touchdowns in his three games before getting hurt and threw for 200 yards in two of those three contests.
This preseason, Richardson showed flashes of his high ceiling but also struggled at times in his dress rehearsal against the Bengals. In that contest, he threw a touchdown and an interception, showing both his risk and his potential reward. He’s still basically a rookie, so there will be growing pains, but he brings a dynamic mix of size, speed, and throw power that gives him an extremely high ceiling, especially if this indoor game turns into a track meet.
Since he has the fourth-highest ceiling projection and seventh-highest salary, he is a solid option to build around if you’re passing on superstar QBs but don’t want to go all the way to the bargain bin.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Rome Odunze ($4,000) Chicago Bears (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans (45 total)
In the aggregated projections, Rome Odunze has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers this week. The Bears are actually favored in the debut of Odunze and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, and Odunze is a great, high-ceiling play at only $4,000.
The Bears drafted Odunze with the No. 9 overall pick just after adding Williams, and the two dynamic rookies will have a chance to grow together in the Chicago offense. Odunze is a big physical receiver who dominated last year with Washington, catching 81 passes for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns while adding another touchdown rushing. He made big plays in the preseason while working with Williams and showed the ability to jump-start the offense both after the catch and by running precise routes downfield.
The risk with Rome is that he could be the third receiver behind veterans Keenan Allen ($6,900) and D.J. Moore ($6,500). Allen has already been dealing with “foot discomfort” but is expected to play in Week 1. If that turns into an issue, it could open the door for more work down the road, but in Week 1, there is a chance Odunze doesn’t get a ton of targets.
Despite that risk, he still brings way too much upside for his salary of only $4,000. In the aggregate projections, he has the third-highest ceiling projection of all receivers and is tied with Drake London ($6,000) for the most Pts/Sal.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Chuba Hubbard ($5,300) Carolina Panthers (+1.5) at New Orleans Saints (42 total)
With rookie Jonathan Brooks (knee) on the NFI list to start the season, Hubbard should begin the season as the go-to option in the Panthers’ backfield. With his expected workload, he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at running back in the aggregated projections and the highest of all running backs with salaries under $6,000.
Despite the Panthers’ offensive struggles, Hubbard exceeded salary-based expectations in eight straight games to finish last season and scored over 11 DraftKings points in each of his last seven, including two games of over 20 DraftKings points. He faced the Saints in New Orleans during that stretch and took 23 carries for 87 yards in Week 14.
With a new coaching staff in place led by former Bucs’ offensive coordinator Dave Canales, Hubbard could be mixed in with Miles Sanders until Brooks is available. Canales liked to rotate backs in Tampa Bay, but he gave enough work to Rachaad White to make him a good producer last year. Hubbard’s long-term projections may not be as high due to Brooks’ eventual return, but for one-week DFS, our projections point him out as a good spot to get value in Week 1.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Kyle Pitts ($4,600) Atlanta Falcons (-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (42 total)
With Arthur Smith out as the coach in Atlanta and QB Kirk Cousins joining the team under center, it seems like a whole new start for Pitts, who has been mostly a disappointment since the Falcons drafted him No. 4 overall in 2021. He undeniably has the talent to make big plays, and maybe this year, he’ll finally get a chance to unlock his upside.
Pitts snagged 53 catches for 667 yards and a career-high three touchdowns last year. He did have his fifth-year option picked up this offseason, showing the team still has faith in him, and some of his struggles last season may have been due to the lingering effects of the knee injury that cut short his 2022 season.
Cousins has typically made his tight end a star in his other stops, and if he leans heavily on Pitts, he could end up with a breakout season. He’s a high-risk play since all of this is still very much “in theory,” but our aggregate projections give him the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in Week 1 by a wide margin.
