The Wild Card Weekend NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and matchup previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Raiders at Texans
The Raiders travel to Houston for a Saturday Wild Card matchup against the Texans in a game that has a Vegas total of just 37 points — the lowest mark on the slate. Houston is a 3.5-point home favorite implied to score 20.25 points. Oakland’s implied for a pathetic 16.75 points.
Oakland Raiders
Writer: Joe Holka
QB — Connor Cook
Matt McGloin is dealing with an injured shoulder and Cook will likely take his place under center. He’ll face a Texans defense that gave up the third-fewest DraftKings points to quarterbacks this season and ranks fifth in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against the pass. Cook converted his 21 pass attempts into 150 yards and one touchdown last week, although he also threw an interception and fumbled twice. He has a tough matchup against a Texans defense that allowed fewer than 250 passing yards during every home game this season and tends to funnel offensive production toward the run game. Cook is a stretch even as a contrarian GPP dart, as he rates by far the worst of any QB in the Adam Levitan Model on DK with the lowest projected floor (6.7 points) and Projected Plus/Minus (-1.71).
RB — Latavius Murray
Murray’s tough to trust in cash games, but he’s appealing in GPPs for a couple reasons: He’s not expensive, he’s been used this season in the red zone and passing game, and he’s projected for low nine to 12 percent ownership on FD. That said, he hasn’t hit 18 touches in any of his last three games or scored a touchdown. The question for Murray this week is if he can get on track in the passing game: He has just five targets in his last four games. Houston ranks 28th at defending RBs out of the backfield, and, per our Trends tool, pass-catching RBs have performed above expectations on DK in low spread games as an underdog:
RB — DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard
The worst part about this trio of terror is that both Washington and Richard have been scoring more touchdowns and catching more passes than Murray over the past few weeks. They are too talented to ignore, yet too limited to roster from a volume perspective. These guys are in an appealing spot, but outside of GPPs it will be tough to lock down where the touches will go.
WR — Amari Cooper
Despite being such an elite talent, Cooper somehow broke 100 yards just three times this season. This is a tough spot for the Raiders WRs, as the Texans defense has given up the fourth-fewest DK points to WRs this season. Cooper may not be the best WR on his team right now, but, per our NFL Matchups tool, Cooper will run the majority of his routes against A.J. Bouye, Pro Football Focus’ third-ranked coverage corner. He’s poorly rated in most of our Pro Models, but that’s understandable given his QB situation and recent play:
He carries too much risk for cash games and his projected ceiling is likely too low for high exposure in GPPs.
WR — Michael Crabtree
Per Player Profiler, Crabtree has a top-20 target share in the league this year and is second in contested catch rate – 85.7 percent on 14 targets. He is averaging nearly 10 targets per game over his last six and has a lot of TD equity on a weekly basis: He’s owned 27.6 percent of the Raiders’ receiving touchdowns over the past 12 months. On a team that could struggle to score, Crabtree is likely the strongest bet to get in the end zone if you are trying to be contrarian in GPPs.
WR — Seth Roberts
Roberts gets red-zone looks, but he is not a focal point in the Raiders offense. He has a scary projected floor of 1.1 points on FD and a projected ceiling of only 10.1 points.
TE — Clive Walford
Walford has had more than three catches in a game just once all year and has failed to exceed 50 yards receiving. Even at only two to four percent ownership in GPPs, Walford is a risky play against the number-two ranked defense against TEs, per DVOA.
Houston Texans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Brock Osweiler
Coach Bill O’Brien announced Tuesday that even if Tom Savage is able to clear the concussion protocol, Osweiler will start at quarterback. He showed almost zero upside the entire season, as he failed to surpass 275 passing yards or throw for more than two touchdowns in a game. Osweiler’s bulk stats are brutal, but his efficiency stats are somehow worse:
Per Player Profiler, Osweiler has been a terrible quarterback in just about every way imaginable this season. He has a lower projected ceiling than every QB this week, including Connor Cook, who has thrown 21 career passes. Osweiler is not a recommended fantasy option.
RB – Lamar Miller
Miller hasn’t played since Week 15, but he’s expected to be ready to go for Saturday. He’ll look to continue balling out as a home favorite:
Per our Trends tool, Miller has posted a +5.30 Plus/Minus with 80 percent Consistency and has averaged 19.9 DK points as a home favorite this season. His five-game sample size is small, but he’s routinely surpassed his salary-based expectations as a home favorite even dating back to his years with the Dolphins:
We just added 10 games to our sample and Miller’s Consistency went up. Miller may have not had the breakout year that many hoped for, but he’s still an explosive running back who can make almost any defense pay with enough chances. Overall, his average of 0.7 runs of 15-plus yards per game ranked 11th among all RBs this season. Miller is priced at $6,100 on DK and is the third-highest rated RB in our Levitan Model.
RB – Alfred Blue and Akeem Hunt
Blue and Hunt have had limited opportunities during games in which Miller has been active. Neither backup RB is a recommended fantasy option this week.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins marched his way to over 100 yards last week for the first time since Week 2. Still, he did it against a Titans defense that has allowed the second-most average fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. Things won’t be as easy this week, as Hopkins is expected to see a lot of Sean Smith and David Amerson – PFF’s 26th- and 39th-highest graded cornerbacks this season, respectively. Hopkins’ price tag doesn’t help matters, as his $6,700 salary on DK is the highest since early November.
Overall, putting faith in Hopkins is putting faith in Osweiler, which has been a roller coaster with very few highs and a helluva lot of lows this season for Nuk:
WR – Will Fuller
Fuller gained over 80 yards during three of his first four games this season. He’s failed to surpass 60 yards in a game since and hasn’t scored a touchdown. The Raiders have allowed a league-high 61 passes of 20-plus yards, but this didn’t make a difference the first time these two teams played, as Fuller converted his four targets into a 1-17-0 line. There’s an argument to be made regarding Fuller’s status as a contrarian boom-or-bust option, but it’s hard to get behind one of Osweiler’s WRs in a game with a 37-point Vegas total – one of the bottom-10 marks of the last three years.
WR – Keith Mumphery
Mumphery hasn’t been targeted more than four times in a game this season and has gained more than 23 receiving yards in a game just once during his career. He’s not a recommended fantasy option.
TE – C.J. Fiedorowicz
You’d think after 17 weeks you could spell “Fiedorowicz” correct on the first try, but you’d be wrong. Anyway, he’s maintained a decent-sized role in the offense all season, as he’s been targeted seven-plus times in nine of his last 11 games. Still, Fiedorowicz hasn’t had many fantasy-friendly targets this season, as his 7.8-yard aDOT ranks 36th among all tight ends and he’s struggled to establish himself in the red zone. Overall, his 12 red-zone targets are tied for 16th among all TEs this season, per NFLSavant.com. Fiedorowicz is priced at $5,300 on FD with a 92 percent Bargain Rating and has five to eight percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
