The Wild Card Weekend NFL Dashboard
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Dolphins at Steelers
The Dolphins make their way to Pittsburgh for a Wild Card playoff game in which they are projected to be 10-point road underdogs against the Steelers. This game currently has a Vegas total of 47 points, the highest mark on the slate. The Dolphins are currently implied for 18.5 points; the Steelers, 28.5.
Miami Dolphins
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Matt Moore
Moore has been surprisingly competent and less of a game-manager than people may realize since Ryan Tannehill’s injury:
He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in each of the past three games but has an average matchup this week against a Steelers defense that ranks 12th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Moore’s by far the lowest-rated FD QB in the Cash Model, but we know he has multi-touchdown upside and he’s projected for low two to four percent ownership on DraftKings.
RB – Jay Ajayi
If you managed to guess which weeks Ajayi would go off . . . congrats. That’s an impressive feat.
He is currently banged up a bit — he went for X-rays after last week’s loss — and may be too risky for cash games. At the same time, in a week with limited options at running back outside of Le’Veon Bell, Ajayi owns the second-highest projected FD floor on the slate. As such, he projects to be 21-25 percent owned. For Ajayi to hit value in GPPs, he may have to break a few big plays. That said, he has proved he is capable of doing just that: He ranks fourth in breakaway runs of 15 or more yards this season, per Player Profiler.
RB – Damien Williams
Williams has five receptions on seven targets over the past two games but still lacks enough volume barring an Ajayi injury to be considered in GPPs. He’s received only five carries combined over the past three games.
WR – Jarvis Landry
Landry has quietly averaged a +5.85 Plus/Minus on DK with Moore behind center, as well as an average of 79 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on seven targets per game over his last four. Landry’s ceiling is still capped by his low TD equity and inability to stretch the field, and, per our NFL Matchups tool, he has a tough matchup against CB William Gay in the slot this week — a top-10 rated cornerback by Pro Football Focus. That said, Landry’s price is the second lowest it has been all year at $5,100 on DK. He currently holds the highest DK Projected Plus/Minus and fourth-highest ceiling, although he is projected for chalky 21-25 percent ownership.
WR – Kenny Stills
Stills has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and second-most Pro Trends among FD WRs. He’s certainly a boom-or-bust play this weekend: His projected floor is only 2.4 points on FD, but he does own 36 percent of the Dolphins’ target share of Air Yards since Moore took over. That kind of big-play upside is definitely appealing in GPPs, and Stills has had four straight games with a touchdown. He’s averaged over six targets per game over that same period.
WR – DeVante Parker
Parker has been far from a picture of consistency this year, but he could easily be a prime beneficiary if the Dolphins have to throw to catch up and the game shoots out. That said, in the few instances in which the Steelers have faced WRs comparable to Parker’s salary and point projection, it has not been pretty:
Parker is currently our fifth-lowest rated WR in the FD Tournament Model.
TE – Dion Sims
Sims has three touchdowns over his last four games on just 10 targets. That said, he didn’t have more than four targets in any game this season and cracked 50 yards just once. For that reason, his projected FD floor is a scary-low 1.3 points. The TE spot is tough, however, and Sims sits as the third-highest rated TE in our Tournament Model on DK because of his touchdown equity. On a relatively weak slate for tight ends, you could probably do worse in GPPs than Sims’ minimum price and 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben heads back home to face a Dolphins defense that has given up back-to-back three-touchdown performances to Tom Brady and Tyrod Taylor. Impressively, the 605 yards and six touchdowns in those games came from only 72 passing attempts. Long story short: The Dolphins got smashed with Byron Maxwell out of the lineup.
Ben has multiple touchdowns in every home game this season, and his only game under three touchdowns came against the fourth-ranked Giants passing defense, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). He has posted a 116.7 passer rating at home, which dips to only 78.4 on the road. With Ben’s extreme home splits, he is the top-rated quarterback in the CSURAM88 DraftKings Player Model.
RB – Le’Veon Bell
Le’Veon has 100-plus rushing yards in five of his last six games. In the game he did not rush for 100 yards, he still managed 93. While he has not seen a double-digit target game since Week 10, he has received 20-plus rushing attempts in six straight. Volume is not an issue for Bell.
He now gets to face a Dolphins defense that has allowed 645 rushing yards on 123 attempts to running backs over the last five weeks — 5.24 yards per carry. After this horrendous stretch, the Dolphins are now allowing the most yards per carry in the NFL this season at 4.8. The Dolphins have also allowed the fifth-most rushing attempts per game at 29. Finally, they’ve allowed a Plus/Minus of +1.70 to RBs on FanDuel over the last 12 months. Bell is the highest-rated RB in the CSURAM88 FanDuel Player Model with projected ownership over 60 percent.
RB – DeAngelo Williams
DeAngelo finally got some action last week and looked a bit rusty: He managed only 2.91 yards per carry on 23 attempts against the Cleveland Browns. However, he did score two touchdowns, emphasizing the value of the RB1 in Pittsburgh’s offense. With Bell back for this playoff game, DWill should be a threat for a couple touches at best.
WR – Antonio Brown
Brown now has a touchdown or 100 yards receiving in his last six home games. Unfortunately, he has exceeded seven targets only twice over his last five. With the Steelers being such heavy favorites, there is certainly some concern for his receiving volume. That being said, the matchup could be too elite to fade if Byron Maxwell misses this game.
With Maxwell out of the lineup, the Dolphins have allowed two receivers to go over 150 yards in the last two weeks. They allowed only one 100-yard receiver over the previous 10 weeks. Maxwell has been quietly having a very strong season, grading as the 10th-best cornerback in coverage, per Pro Football Focus. Brown is a strong play as usual and even stronger if Maxwell is out. He has the highest median projection of all receivers in our DK Player Models.
WR – Eli Rogers
In a ‘featured’ role in Week 17, Rogers finished with six targets and six receptions. In the two games that Ladarius Green played at full strength prior to his injury, Rogers accumulated only six targets in that span. He saw five targets in the game that Green missed against Baltimore. Rogers is a risky option if Green is active but currently projects for over 20 percent ownership on DraftKings because of his recent success and low $4,000 salary.
WR – Cobi Hamilton
Hamilton has not cleared 39 receiving yards in any game that Brown has started this season. He has a low 11.1-point projected DK ceiling.
TE – Ladarius Green
The Steelers continue to say that Green will play this weekend, but his concussion history is concerning. He should be considered legitimately questionable. That said, if Green plays, it is notable that he saw 25 targets over his final three games before injury, including the Bengals game that he left early. He should be the second receiving option behind Brown if he is able to suit up. He has the second-highest projected ceiling among DK TEs and is projected for 17-20 percent ownership.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
