We’ve got five games carrying an over/under of 48 points or greater in Week 15, which should translate into some interesting situations to target. And as we’ve seen in the past, utilizing the team totals and spreads set in place by Vegas is a necessity when constructing your lineups each week. These odds makers are the best at what they do and by using the information they provide us with, we can quickly assess which spots we’d like to either gain exposure to or potentially fade.
While checking for the highest over/under is a great place to start, we’ve gone a step further and identified players (by using Fantasy Labs’ Trends tool) that find themselves in game situations – based upon Vegas trends – that you will be able to exploit this week.
Quarterback
Drew Brees
Vegas Trend: Brees as a home favorite this season.
Awhile back I took a deeper look at Brees’ home/road splits and discussed how drastic they’ve been in the past. As a favorite at home, this has been amplified to an even greater degree. Certainly his massive game against the Giants is inflating his crazy 30.78 DK point average, but Brees has been great in three of these four matchups this season – with his only lackluster game coming against a divisional opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
As a favorite, we are more likely to see him working within a game script that he is dictating and not playing catch-up. While there are players that benefit from racking up garbage time statistics, he has had more success earlier in games this season. To illustrate this, let’s compare him to Blake Bortles and Andrew Luck. While Brees has thrown 60% of his touchdowns in the first half of games, Bortles (36.7%) and Luck (25.0%) have fared far better in the second half. Essentially, if we believe the Saints have a decent chance of not getting behind by a huge margin early, we’re actually more likely to see Brees have a solid passing day.
Also working in his favor is the matchup with a non-divisional opponent.
Averaging a full 10 points more per game at home (whether the Saints are favored or not) vs non-divisional opponents over the previous two years, we should see Brees primed for another nice day in a game that has the makings of another shootout in New Orleans.
Running Back
Latavius Murray
Vegas Trend: Oakland as a home underdog.
Murray hasn’t quite broken out as many had expected, but he has played well. The Raiders will find themselves home underdogs this weekend in their matchup against the Packers, a situation that has benefited him thus far this season.
While the run-heavy game script that is often associated with being a home favorite is generally preferred, Murray has found other ways to keep himself fantasy relevant.
In the five games the Raiders have been an underdog at home this year, Murray has accumulated 58% of his total receptions, on his way to averaging a healthy 15.4 DK points. Priced down around the likes of Fred Jackson, Buck Allen and James Starks, he makes for a nice, semi-contrarian option – he was owned in 2.3% of lineups on FanDuel Thursday night – in lineups if you’re looking at running backs around his price point.
Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham
Vegas Trend: New York as a home underdog.
I know, I know, Josh Norman is coming to town to shut down Beckham this weekend. I for one, am not scared – well, maybe I’m a little scared, enough to stay far away in cash at least. Beckham will find himself dotted throughout many of my tournament lineups this weekend though. Part of my confidence in him stems from his performances at home when the Giants have been underdogs the past two years. Averaging 29.02 DK points in these matchups, he’s been crazy consistent, with a low game of 15.30 DK points.
Looking at his splits at home when the Giants are favored as compared to being an underdog only strengthens my confidence in him.
While he hasn’t faced a player of Norman’s caliber in any of these matchups, he did overcome Bill Belichick’s attempts to scheme him out of the game and had success against an extremely tough Cowboy’s pass defense last year. Beckham has also found success against Richard Sherman on the road in the past as well.
With absolutely no running game to speak of, we should see Eli Manning forced to throw often in this matchup, especially if they’re playing catch-up to the favored Panthers. With teams focusing on Beckham earlier this year, the Giants initially struggled to finds ways to keep him involved. However recently they’ve shown a newfound commitment to scheming different ways to get the ball into his hands. If they are smart enough to utilize Beckham out of the slot – Norman hasn’t followed opposing players there – more than usual, they’ll be able to exploit whomever the Panthers opt to have him face off against. They lost slot corner Bené Benwikere to injury last week and haven’t announced his replacement at this time.
He’s extremely pricey, so he’d likely be out of the conversation in cash games regardless. But with his ownership down around 6% in Thursday night’s contests, he might be worth giving a second look in GPP lineups if you’d initially written him off this week.
Tight End
Jordan Reed
Vegas Trend: Washington as a home underdog.
Washington will find themselves a home underdog for the sixth time this season on Sunday, a situation that should benefit Jordan Reed. Reed has been great in general this year, but has been a bit more constant when the Redskins are in such a situation, exceeding his implied point total on 80% of such occasions.
If they get behind the Bills in this game, we should see Kirk Cousins air the ball out plenty. Reed has proven to be the prime benefactor of this in the past and I would expect that to continue. His price is rising and is starting to be a concern, but he still represents a nice savings ($1,000) over Greg Olsen and Rob Gronkowski ($7,700) if you’re looking to spend up at the position.
