Utilizing the team totals and spreads set in place by Vegas is a necessity when constructing your lineups each week. These odds makers are the best at what they do and by using the information they provide us with, we can quickly assess which spots we’d like to either gain exposure to or potentially fade.
While checking for the highest over/under is a great place to start, we’ve gone a step further and identified players (by using Fantasy Labs’ Trends tool) that find themselves in game situations – based upon Vegas trends – that you will be able to exploit this week.
Quarterback
Russell Wilson
Vegas Trend: Quarterbacks as 10-plus point road favorites.
Wilson’s been untouchable the past few weeks, carrying owners to GPP wins left and right. With what appears to be a prime matchup in Week 14 – combined with his relatively low price tag – Wilson will likely be a popular play this week (he was the top-owned quarterback in last night’s Thursday night FanDuel contests).
With the Ravens owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.2, there’s certainly merit to the exuberance surrounding Wilson. There are a few red flags that should cause at least a moment’s pause with him though. As we see in the picture above, over the previous two seasons quarterbacks coming into a week as a 10-point or greater road favorite have not fared especially well. While there have been some big games from Peyton Manning, the others have produced below average output.
While five games is not the largest sample size, it can give us an idea as to how the game flow may go for a quarterback in a comparable situation. If his team is able to jump out to a lead, the results could be middling for Russell.
As the quarterback of a traditionally run heavy team facing an anemic offense, there is a very good chance the game script turns on Wilson early in this game and leads to a large workload for Thomas Rawls. We saw Miami – a team that had been pass-happy most of this season – utilize a comparable approach last week.
Additionally, this Ravens team has not been nearly as bad since returning from their bye week a few weeks ago. The opponents have not all been of the highest quality, but the results are worth noting nonetheless.
Wilson is certainly in play as an extremely high upside tournament play – he has our second-highest ceiling this week – but if you’re considering him in cash games, his notably low floor (his floor projection of 9.3 is the 11th lowest among quarterbacks) implies that he carries far more volatility than others priced comparably this week.
Running Back
Doug Martin
Vegas Trend: Running Backs as a favorite in games with an over/under of 50 or greater.
Despite Jameis Winston initially getting much of the publicity coming into this week, Martin has been gaining attention slowly, to the point that he’ll likely be one of the top two or three highest owned running backs in Week 14.
The optimism regarding him certainly isn’t misplaced. With the Buccaneers favored in this matchup – which has an over/under of 50.5 – recent history is on his side. Comparably projected running backs in similar situations have averaged 21.03 DK points over the past couple of years.
With Martin averaging 21 carries per game over the previous four weeks, he should have no trouble finding success against a Saints run defense that has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.1 this season. While the lack of passing game work and touchdowns are a concern, Martin is a good bet to meet or exceed his implied point total of 13.87 DK points on Sunday.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Green
Vegas Trend: Cincinnati as a home favorite this season.
Green has been one of the more volatile options at the wide receiver position this year (and his career for that matter). Although he’s now had back-to-back games of 24 or more DK points, he averaged a meager 10.63 DK points in the three games prior. Coming into what should be a plus-matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers – owners of an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.9 – I find myself a bit hesitant due to his prior performances as a home favorite thus far this season.
Having exceeded his value only once over six such situations, it’s tough to get overly excited about having heavy exposure to Green this week. We’ve seen a trend develop in which the Bengals have opted to utilize tight end Tyler Eifert in games they are favored in. With Eifert scheduled to return this week, Green likely takes a hit.
And while he has had some success against the Steelers at home in the past, it pales in comparison to how the Bengals have utilized him against them in Pittsburgh. Green has always been a player that has had more success on the road in general, but his target splits and production against the Steelers in such situations are quite substantial.
His ability to just take over a game at any point makes him an elite GPP play, especially in a game stack with some of the Steelers, but his eight games with single-digit targets this season speak to his associated risk this week as well.
Tight End
Greg Olsen
Vegas Trend: Panthers as a home favorite.
The Panthers are heavy home favorites against their division rivals, the Atlanta Falcons, this weekend. Over the past two seasons, Greg Olsen has found such circumstances to be extremely productive. Olsen has found himself targeted heavily by Cam Newton in these games, averaging 17.66 DK points per contest as a home favorite.
With the Falcons having given up the seventh-most DK points to the tight end position – and running a comparable defensive scheme to the Seattle defense that Olsen torched earlier this year – we should find Olsen heavily involved once again.
Despite a constantly rising price tag, Olsen has continued to meet his value on a consistent basis.
At a position that is seemingly reverting back to its volatile ways of old, Olsen offers stability and production that is tough to match right now. While his price tag is getting steep, he’s still a likely candidate to pay it off once again this week.
