Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS. It can also be one of the most valuable.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. As the season rolls in, metrics like adjusted line yard and adjusted sack rate are a good way to judge a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Into the middle third of the season, we can feel fairly confident about the data powering the table below. The one caveat is injuries, as we still need to be aware of when teams are missing key players on either side of the ball.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and pressure rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders (now at FTN) statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered, though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vice versa for quarterbacks.
In Week 5, these numbers will become matchup-adjusted, and we’ll lean more heavily on them. Until then, we’ll be mixing in 2022 data and the rankings mentioned above to decide on the matchups.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Seattle Seahawks OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #8 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Arizona Cardinals DL
There are multiple units here with excellent matchups in either run or pass blocking. Only Seattle looks to be in great shape in both areas in Week 7.
This is a bit unfortunate, as the Seahawks have a fairly spread-out passing attack and haven’t given Kenneth Walker ($7,000) 20 carries in a game yet this season. Both DK Metcalf ($6,800) and Tyler Lockett ($6,000) have target shares in the low 20% range, outside of the top 25 in the league.
They’re distributing just enough looks to their tight ends and rookie wide receivers to make it hard to see a ceiling game for any individual player — except perhaps quarterback Geno Smith ($6,000). With the ride distribution of their offense, he could post a big score without any of his individual pass-catchers joining him.
Smith is probably a better cash game play this week, though. With Seattle as the week’s biggest favorites, it’s hard to see a scenario where they stay aggressive deep into the game. That means the likeliest outcome for Smith is a strong price-adjusted score, but not one you have to have for GPPs.
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Chicago Bears OL (#2 in Combined Line Yards, #19 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Las Vegas Raiders DL
Well, here’s a surprise. The notoriously awful Bears offensive line is projecting as one of the best run-blocking matchups this week by adjusted line yards.
Chicago’s line has actually played fairly well in the run game this year, ranking sixth in the NFL in adjusted line yards — right between excellent units like the Eagles and Lions. They’ve obviously struggled in the passing game, but we weren’t going to target the Bears passing attack without Justin Fields anyway.
They’re taking on a Raiders team that ranks bottom-five in adjusted line yards on defense, a perfect confluence of factors in Week 7. Especially when the Bears likely starting back Roschon Johnson ($4,600) is inexplicably priced way below his value. If he misses another week with a concussion, we could also go back to the D’Onta Foreman ($4,800) well.
Foreman was a disappointment last week, but he did handle 15 carries in Johnson’s absence. If Johnson misses again, I’d bank on that number to go up. Partially due to the matchup and partially due to Justin Fields not being around to soak up designed runs.
Tampa Bay Bucs OL (#17 in Combined Line Yards, #1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Atlanta Falcons DL
The inverse of the Bears, the Bucs should have no problem pass-protecting against the Falcons front but aren’t likely to get much going on the ground.
That’s been the story of the season for Tampa, who rank dead last in the NFL in yards per rush and 28th in DVOA. They’re roughly league average in both measures through the air, which sets up nicely against a Falcons team that’s much better defending the run.
That means Baker Mayfield ($5,300) is an interesting option this week. Much like his counterpart Desmond Ridder ($5,200), who helped win the Week 6 Milly Maker, Mayfield doesn’t need a massive score at his relatively cheap price point.
I’m also far more interested in Mike Evans ($7,100) than Chris Godwin ($6,900) in this matchup. Evans has a slightly larger target share this season but crucially has an average depth of target (aDOT) roughly four yards deeper. Those routes need solid pass protection to develop, which they should get in Week 7.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Washington Commanders DL (#2 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. New York Giants OL
Truthfully it’s a good matchup for both defensive lines in this game. The Commanders and Giants rank 32nd and 31st in sacks taken and adjusted sack rate on the season. That means we should see a very sloppy game between these teams, and the total is just 39.5 points.
Both defensive units are obviously in play, with the New York Giants ($3,000) as the somewhat cheaper option and Washington ($3,500) priced up. That price gap reflects the difference in their defensive lines, with the Commanders having a top-ten pass rush by adjusted sack rate while the Giants rank 32nd. That explains the slight discrepancy in combined sack rate projection this week.
I still expect the Giants pass rush to get theirs on Sunday, but I’d rather find the extra $500 to get to the favored Commanders if possible. Both are strong plays, though, so ownership may end up being the most important factor.
Detroit Lions DL (#7 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Baltimore Ravens OL
The Lions pass rush has been a pleasant surprise this season. They came into the season ranked 20th by PFF but, through six weeks, have clearly outperformed that ranking. Coming into Week 7, they rank tenth in adjusted line yards and 14th in adjusted sack rate.
While those aren’t elite numbers, they’re pretty strong considering the price point on Detroit ($2,700). Baltimore ranks 24th in adjusted sack rate allowed — though much of that is likely due to Lamar Jackson ($7,600) scrambling more than bad protection.
Still, the Lions should get to him a few times this game, with the potential for big plays on defense. With the Ravens implied for just 22.5 points, they’re also a relatively safe pick for cash games and smaller field GPPs.
