Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS. It can also be one of the most valuable.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. As the season rolls in, metrics like adjusted line yard and adjusted sack rate are a good way to judge a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
We’ve now officially hit the magical point in the season where our data is matchup adjusted, which lends a tremendous amount of predictive value to the numbers below.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and pressure rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders (now at FTN) statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With pressure rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered, though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vice versa for quarterbacks.
In Week 5, these numbers will become matchup-adjusted, and we’ll lean more heavily on them. Until then, we’ll be mixing in 2022 data and the rankings mentioned above to decide on the matchups.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Minnesota Vikings OL (#5 in Combined Line Yards, #1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears DL
The same trio of teams that stood out last week again project as solid plays this week. We’ll start with the Vikings, who take on a Bears defensive front that ranked 32nd coming into the season and has lived up to that ranking thus far. They come into Week 6 at 31st in adjusted sack rate, though they’ve been surprisingly effective against the run.
Still, it projects as a strong matchup in both phases, thanks to Minnesota’s solid play in run blocking this season. They trail only the Dolphins in adjusted line yards on the season and rank top 12 in adjusted sack rate.
It’s still hard to be too high on the Vikings without Justin Jefferson, who will miss at least the next four weeks. However, the matchup is a boost to the new starting wideout duo of Jordan Addison ($5,700) and KJ Osborn ($4,400). Addison should have a similar route tree with expanded targets while Osborn takes over Jefferson’s role.
The pass blocking is a bigger boost to Addison, who was already more of a deep threat with a 12.31 average depth of target (aDOT). Quarterbacks need more time for plays to develop downfield, which boosts the outlook for the rookie.
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Detroit Lions OL (#4 in Combined Line Yards, #2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Tampa Bay Bucs DL
The Detroit offensive front has lived up to their preseason hype, despite a smattering of injuries to the position group this season. They’re more or less healthy heading into Week 6 and come in with a top-five ranking in adjusted line yards and sack rate.
This Bucs front isn’t what it was for many years, especially in the run game. They’re 27th in adjusted line yards and 22nd in adjusted sack rate on the season.
Given the Lions -3 spread and the historical home/road splits from Jared Goff ($6,400), my interest is primarily in the Lions rushing attack. They rank fourth in rush rate over expectation (RROE) on the year and are happy to feed carries to David Montgomery ($7,300).
He’s the top option for fantasy production, but rookie speedster Jahmyr Gibbs ($5,900) is expected back this week. Still, it’s hard to project him for too many carries, given the Lions’ reluctance to use him between the tackles and the recent injury situation.
Miami Dolphins OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #5 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. New York Giants DL
It was fun while it lasted with De’Von Achane, who took the world by storm with outrageous fantasy production before going on the injured reserve this week. It wasn’t all Achane by himself, though. The Dolphins offensive line has led the league in adjusted line yards by a wide margin through five weeks while ranking second in adjusted sack rate.
They’re nearly two-touchdown favorites over the Giants this week, which should mean a solid workload for Raheem Mostert ($6,400), who should again assume lead-back duties. However, Jeff Wilson ($4,300) is also eligible to return this week, so don’t expect a massive workload for Mostert.
Still, given Mostert’s speed and the matchup up front, it’s an excellent spot for him with somewhat less carry competition this week. He’s somewhat expensive for his typical workload, but it’s hard to ask for much more in terms of game script and projected efficiency.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Minnesota Vikings DL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears OL
There’s not an obvious cheap option to target this week, but the price tag on Minnesota ($3,000) may be worth paying. They’re facing a Bears team that’s almost as bad in the trenches on offense as they are on defense, ranking 30th in adjusted sack rate on the season.
The loss of Jefferson hurts the Vikings defense here a bit, as it lowers the chances of a negative game script for Chicago which would lead to expanded dropbacks from Justin Fields ($7,300) and the Bears. Still, it’s a solid spot for a Vikings unit with a top-10 adjusted sack rate on defense.
The Bears implied total of 21 is also on the lower side, making this a reasonably safe pick as well. It’s a bit more than I typically want to spend on defense, but it’s justifiable here.
Washington Commanders DL (#2 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Atlanta Falcons OL
Truthfully, both defenses in this matchup are worth considering. Washington’s 29 sacks allowed trails only the Giants, while Atlanta has allowed 16 (sixth most) despite leading the league in RROE.
However, Washington ($3,100) has the more aggressive front, with a top-five adjusted sack rate on defense. While we typically wouldn’t spend $3,100 for an underdog defense, the 2.5-point spread shouldn’t have a major impact on the game flow (or the Falcons pass rate).
They’re a slightly riskier choice than Minnesota, thanks to their underdog status and Atlanta’s absurdly low pass rate. Still, it’s an excellent pivot for GPPs that should see far less ownership than the Vikings.
