Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS. It can also be one of the most valuable.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. As the season rolls in, metrics like adjusted line yard and pressure rate are a good way to judge a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and pressure rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders (now at FTN) statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With pressure rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered, though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vice versa for quarterbacks.
In Week 5 these numbers will become matchup adjusted, and we’ll lean more heavily on them. Until then, we’ll be mixing in 2022 data and the rankings mentioned above to decide on the matchups.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Los Angeles Chargers OL (#5 in Combined Line Yards, #4 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Las Vegas Raiders DL
Don’t put too much stock in the table above just yet. With only three games in the books, the numbers so far are as much a reflection of the strength of schedule as they are ability. However, when the numbers align with the preseason analysis — then we’re in business.
That’s the case with the Chargers, who Anderson had as a top 10 line coming into the season. They’re taking on a Raiders unit ranked 24th coming into the year, and they currently sit at 24th in adjusted sack rate. We aren’t really interested in the Chargers running attack until Austin Ekeler ($8,300) comes back — which seems unlikely this week — so the pass protection is the more important metric here.
The Chargers lost Mike Williams for the season last week but still have Keen Allen ($7,900) to catch passes from Justin Herbert ($7,800). One of Joshua Palmer ($4,000) or Quentin Johnson ($3,700) should also have a big role this week. While it’s difficult to say which, I’d lean towards Palmer. Johnson is a rookie who might need a bit more time to get up to speed.
However, a solid pocket, in theory, helps Johnson more than Palmer. Palmer is more of an Allen-type route runner with a lower average depth of target (aDOT), while Johnson profiles as a down-the-field threat.
He’s intriguing for larger field GPPs.
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San Francisco 49ers OL (#2 in Combined Line Yards, #13 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Arizona Cardinals DL
The Cardinals defensive line came into the year ranked 32nd by PFF and so far has lived up to the billing. They’re tied for 31st in adjusted line yards allowed (ahead of only the Raiders), and we’re especially interested in the rushing attack in this game.
That’s because it’s led by Christian McCaffrey ($9,200), the unquestioned top fantasy back in the league in Ekeler’s absence. CMC has scored at least 22.90 DraftKings points in every game so far this season — and this is his easiest matchup yet.
I don’t think the 49ers want to keep feeding McCaffrey the 20 carries a game he’s averaging, but I don’t anticipate a big drop in his workload since they’ve had a long week following a Thursday Night Football appearance in Week 3. Even if his carry count drops a bit, he could still more than make up for it in efficiency in this matchup.
On the 49ers side, they’ve exceeded preseason expectations. Anderson had them ranked 20th up front, while they’ve produced the fifth-most adjusted line yards so far this year.
Philadelphia Eagles OL (#4 in Combined Line Yards, #17 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Washington Commanders DL
This is exactly the kind of setup we want to see for Jalen Hurts ($8,000) and the Eagles. The Commanders’ aggressive pass rush gets up field in a hurry, leading to plenty of sacks against slower quarterbacks. For Hurts, that pressure is a feature, not a bug.
He’ll be able to escape the pocket and get up field, as well as find success on designed runs. That’s a dream scenario for him, and D’Andre Swift ($5,700), whom the Eagles have given 44 carries over the past two weeks.
Given the nature of Hurts’ production, a Swift and Hurts stack is entirely viable this week in DFS. Both make excellent plays in their own right, too. The higher projected sack rate could be a negative for the Eagles downfield passing game, though, so exercise caution rostering Devonta Smith ($7,500), who has an aDOT of 14.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Cincinnati Bengals DL (#1 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Tennessee Titans OL
The Titans were projected to be the worst offensive line in the league coming into the season, and they’ve done nothing to dissuade that assertion. They rank 31st in adjusted sack rate allowed and 20th in adjusted line yards. Some of that is due to tough matchups with the Saints and Browns — but the Bengals are also a solid unit.
Cincinnati ($3,800) is on the pricey side for defenses, so they really only make sense if you’re expecting a blowout here — the Titans don’t throw enough to create massive defense scores otherwise. Still, they have an extremely solid floor, with the Titans taking more than four sacks per game on average.
Cleveland Browns DL (#4 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Baltimore Ravens OL
This is a trickier one for DFS, as a strong pass rush is a double-edged sword against mobile quarterbacks. However, Lamar Jackson ($7,700) has struggled under pressure this season, taking eight sacks and losing three turnovers through three games.
More importantly, Cleveland ($2,800) is reasonably priced in DFS, making them likely to be the most popular pick of the slate.
They’re still a viable option even at higher ownership, especially for cash games and smaller-field tournaments.
