Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS. It can also be one of the most valuable.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. As the season rolls in, metrics like adjusted line yard and adjusted sack rate are a good way to judge a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Into the middle third of the season, we can feel fairly confident about the data powering the table below. The one caveat is injuries, as we still need to be aware of when teams are missing key players on either side of the ball.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and pressure rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders (now at FTN) statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With an adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered, though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vice versa for quarterbacks.
The final main slate of the regular season features 13 games and kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Detroit Lions OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #10 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Minnesota Vikings DL
Week 18 is always interesting for DFS, as plenty of teams with nothing left to play for rest their starters in the season’s final week. That mostly described the Lions, who’ve wrapped up the NFC North and are all but locked into the NFC’s number three seed (they’d need a win here and both the Cowboys and Eagles to lose in Week 18 to move up to the two seed).
That sounds like a spot where a team should rest their starters for the playoffs, particularly along the offensive line, where the Lions have been banged up all season. On the other hand, that doesn’t sound like how the Lions typically operate under Dan Campbell.
If their offensive line is intact, they have a great matchup against the Vikings, especially on the ground. When these teams met in Week 16, running backs Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,700) and David Montgomery ($6,400) combined for 135 rushing yards and three touchdowns, plus an additional six catches for 34 yards.
Be sure to keep an eye on the news this week, as either back and/or key offensive line pieces have the potential to get a light week.
Philadelphia Eagles OL (#6 in Combined Line Yards, #2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. New York Giants DL
Philadelphia was in control of the top seed in the NFC, then went on to lose four of their last five games heading into Week 18. The one win came against the Giants, who they get a second matchup with this week. While Philly has already clinched a playoff spot, a win and a Cowboys loss would give them the NFC East, so we should expect them to be playing to win at least early on in this game.
The offensive line has been the one bright spot during the Eagles skid, holding on to solid rankings in both run and pass blocking. Now they face a Giants team that ranks bottom-five against both the run and the pass. De’Andre Swift ($6,800) saw 20 carries for just over 90 yards in their previous matchup, with Jalen Hurts ($8,100) adding another eight carries for 34 yards.
Rostering Eagles in DFS is somewhat risky, though. They play at the same time as Dallas — who are 13-point favorites — and could conceivably bench their starters if the Cowboys are winning big in the second half. That makes Kenneth Gainwell ($4,800) mildly interesting as a potential pivot. He saw nine touches in the previous meeting between these teams, so he’d be involved even without Swift getting a rest.
Tampa Bay Bucs OL (#16 in Combined Line Yards, #3 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers DL
The Bucs are one of a few teams we can feel confident will be going all out to win in Week 18. They essentially control their own destiny, with a win sending them to the postseason as NFC South champions.
That makes Baker Mayfield ($6,200) and the passing attack very intriguing against the Panthers’ 30th-ranked pass rush by adjusted sack rate. Mayfield is one of the more pressure-sensitive quarterbacks in the league, with a 0.39 difference in EPA per play under pressure compared to overall (per 33rd Team’s The Edge).
That’s especially helpful for Mike Evans ($7,400), whose downfield role (13.98-yard average depth of target) means passes his way need more time to develop. Coupled with the must-win nature of the game, Mayfield-led stacks are one of the better options this week.
A Note On Green Bay
The Packers have the best pass-blocking matchup by the numbers this week. Like Tampa Bay, they also have a must-win game against the division-rival Bears. However, Chicago’s pass rush greatly improved once they traded for Montez Sweat at the trade deadline. While Adjusted Sack Rate isn’t sortable by game/week, Chicago has 19 sacks in the last seven games, compared to just 10 in their eight games prior to trading for Sweat. Long story short, the matchup isn’t nearly as strong as it appears on paper.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Dallas Cowboys DL (#2 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Washington Commanders OL
We’re spoiled for choice with high-end defenses this week, as the Eagles’ solid pass rush takes on the 32nd-ranked Giants offensive line, and Dallas faces the Commanders’ 29th-ranked unit.
Philadelphia ($4,000) is slightly better by the numbers, but I’m leaning towards Dallas ($4,100) personally. The Cowboys have a slightly higher adjusted sack rate, and Sam Howell ($5,200) has been somewhat more mistake-prone than Tyrod Taylor ($5,100) this season.
It’s close though, so it could come down to ownership if looking to pay up to this price range.
Green Bay Packers DL (#8 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears OL
Unlike on the defensive side, the numbers tell the full story for Chicago’s offensive line. They rank 26th in adjusted sack rate and are taking on an above-average Green Bay ($3,100) front.
Defenses have been consistently priced up this year, making the $3,100 price tag on the Packers fairly reasonable considering the matchup and Green Bay’s status as a slight favorite. They’re one of the better semi-cheap options outside of trying to target teams who are playing against backups.
