NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge For Week 18 Contests

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. From Week 5 on, I will be basing these selections almost entirely on Football Outsiders data, including pressure rate and adjusted line yards.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources, including the Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

The Data

Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.

With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vise-versa for quarterbacks.

Starting in Week 5, these numbers became matchup adjusted, which should make them far more efficient. Each week, they become slightly more predictive. However, they don’t take injuries into account, so keeping up on those are important. Also, keep in mind that adjusted sack rate takes into account sacks, not pressures.

Therefore quarterback play heavily influences the offensive side of the statistic.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Philadelphia Eagles OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #10 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. New York Giants DL

Miles Sanders ($5,900) was a casualty of the game script last weekend, with his Eagles trailing the Saints in all but one of their possessions. He only logged 12 carries but picked up over five yards per rush on those 12. That was against a Saints team that has allowed roughly half a yard less per carry in adjusted line yards than this week’s opponent, the Giants.

While it isn’t a “must-win” game for the Eagles, who clinched a playoff spot weeks ago, it’s still an important one. A loss could mean the Cowboys take the division and/or the 49ers get the NFC’s first-round bye. We should see them playing all out in this one to prevent those scenarios.

As 14-point favorites, it’s likely that the game script works out better this week. We could finally see a heavy dose of Sanders here, with or without Jalen Hurts back in the game. Combined with his likely efficiency, he’s an excellent DFS option.

Pittsburgh Steelers OL (#2 in Combined Line Yards, #8 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Cleveland Browns DL

The Browns rank 29th in DVOA against the run, and 28th in adjusted line yards on the season. That’s a good combination for Najee Harris ($6,100), who’s averaging over 20 carries per game on the Steelers’ current three-game winning streak.

That streak has also given them an outside shot at a playoff berth with a win, so expect the Steelers to ride Harris heavily in this one. Mike Tomlin’s absurd 16-year streak without a losing record is also on the line here. With Pittsburgh favored slightly, the game script should allow Harris to be the focal point of the offense.

Harris is a quietly strong play with a workhorse role in a must-win game for the Steelers.

Tampa Bay Bucs OL (#4 in Combined Line Yards, #1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Atlanta Falcons DL

Tampa Bay’s top ranking in adjusted sack rate this season has way more to do with Tom Brady ($6,400) getting the ball out quickly than it does with the line being effective. Still, we saw last week what he can do with a clean pocket, picking up over 40 DraftKings points against Carolina — who rank 26th in adjusted sack rate.

The matchup is even better this week, with the Falcons being the league’s worst team at generating pressure. The real question is whether the Bucs’ offensive starters will play the whole game. Brady has publicly said he wants to treat it as any other game, but Tampa has nothing to play for here.

That makes Brady an interesting GPP option, but certainly too shaky for cash games. The risks and rewards are both very high.

Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Philadelphia Eagles DL (#1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. New York Giants OL

The Giants have absolutely nothing to play for this week, while the Eagles’ motivation is high, as mentioned above. Philadelphia also has the top pass rush by adjusted sack rate, while the Giants rank 26th in pass protection. It could get ugly for the Giants here, making Philadelphia ($4,000) a strong option. While they’re expensive, we should be able to find some value elsewhere on the slate, and they make a great stack with Sanders.

Minnesota Vikings DL (#2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears OL

Minnesota ($2,900) stands out as a somewhat budget-friendly option this week. The Bears have the worst adjusted sack rate offensively while allowing the fifth-most points to opposing defenses. This is another game where one team — in this case Minnesota — has a lot more to play for than their opponent as well.

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.