Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS. It can also be one of the most valuable.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. As the season rolls in, metrics like adjusted line yard and adjusted sack rate are a good way to judge a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Into the middle third of the season, we can feel fairly confident about the data powering the table below. The one caveat is injuries, as we still need to be aware of when teams are missing key players on either side of the ball.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and pressure rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders (now at FTN) statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With an adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered, though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vice versa for quarterbacks.
The penultimate main slate of the season features 13 games and kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Los Angeles Rams OL (#2 in Combined Line Yards, #2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. New York Giants DL
The Giants’ defensive front ranks 27th in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate, making them a soft matchup overall for opposing teams. This is a borderline must-win game for Los Angeles, so look for them to exploit that matchup aggressively as they hang on to a one-game lead for a playoff spot.
The biggest beneficiary of the matchup is probably Kyren Williams ($8,300). His price tag has finally risen to meet his workload, but increased efficiency in a soft matchup gives him plenty of room for upside. He’s seen at least 22 touches in every game since returning from injury.
The Rams passing attack is also in play here, but with Los Angeles as moderate favorites they aren’t likely to be the focal point of the offense in Week 17.
Philadelphia Eagles OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #6 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Arizona Cardinals DL
The Cardinals defense is roughly average in terms of producing pressure but ranks 32nd in adjusted line yards allowed. That creates a tricky situation for DFS — do we trust De’Andre Swift ($6,500), or just assume quarterback Jalen Hurts ($8,300) gets most of the high-value carries anyway?
Given the fact that Philly is favored by double digits, I’m leaning towards Swift. He just saw 20 carries in the Eagles eight-point win last week and was a tackle at the one-yard line away from a multi-touchdown day. The “tush push” goal-line work from Hurts is frustrating, but in theory, he’ll convert some of the runs where he was stopped at the one in the future.
Buffalo Bills OL (#8 in Combined Line Yards, #1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. New England Patriots DL
Buffalo has gone run heavy the past two weeks, with James Cook ($7,100) drawing 45 carries across the past two games, while Josh Allen ($8,200) has attempted just 36 passes. That makes this an excellent buy-low spot on Allen, as they face a pass-funnel Patriots defense.
New England ranks second in DVOA against the run and 17th against the pass. They’re 28th in adjusted sack rate and fourth in adjusted line yards, so this is obviously a good matchup to air it out. Hopefully, we can catch Allen at reduced ownership after a couple of quiet weeks.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Houston Texans DL (#3 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Tennessee Titans OL
Usually, I try to highlight one cheaper defense and one more expensive unit that stands out. However, this week, Houston ($3,000) is cheap enough to qualify as one of the top values, with an excellent matchup. They check both boxes in terms of being a strong overall play and good value for the money.
The Texans just played the Titans two weeks ago and recorded a whopping seven sacks in that contest. Their season-long numbers in adjusted sack rate and total sacks are middle of the road. However, they have 30 sacks in their last nine games. Their pass rush is built around rookie Will Anderson, who has played better and better as the season progresses.
With the Titans as one of just four teams when an adjusted sack rate over 10%, this is an excellent matchup for the young Houston front, who should easily exceed their price tag on Sunday.
