Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS. It can also be one of the most valuable.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. As the season rolls in, metrics like adjusted line yard and adjusted sack rate are a good way to judge a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Into the middle third of the season, we can feel fairly confident about the data powering the table below. The one caveat is injuries, as we still need to be aware of when teams are missing key players on either side of the ball.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and pressure rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders (now at FTN) statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered, though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vice versa for quarterbacks.
We’re covering both Monday’s three-game slate and Sunday’s nine-game main slate in this piece. Teams playing on Monday are highlighted for easy differentiation.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Kansas City Chiefs OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #1 in Combined Sack Rate — Monday Slate) vs. Las Vegas Raiders DL
The 2023 Chiefs don’t have the explosive offense they have in years past, but it’s through no fault of the offensive line. Their blocking remains among the league’s best, ranking second in adjusted sack rate on the season.
They draw a divisional matchup with the Raider son Christmas, with Las Vegas ranking 19th in adjusted sack rate and 30th in adjusted line yards allowed. Due to the matchup, likely game flow, and salaries involved, the Kansas City running game stands out more than its passing game.
Unfortunately, it looks like that ground game will be back to a three-player committee this week with the return of Isaiah Pacheco ($6,400). On the one hand, that’s helpful — Pacheco’s salary is down $500 from last week. On the other hand, it will be interesting to see if he gets his regular workload or if it is eased back in.
Of course, the passing game could always get there given the talent of Patrick Mahomes ($7,500) and Travis Kelce ($7,500) plus the emergence of Rashee Rice ($6,500) — it’s just a bit harder to do so relative to their salaries.
Chicago Bears OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #11 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Arizona Cardinals DL
Arizona has been dominated on the ground all season by essentially any metric. They rank 30th in DVOA against the run and 31st in adjusted line yards, and their 4.8 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to running backs is the worst in the league by a wide margin.
That keeps any running backs taking them on in the weekly conversation. This time, it’s the Bears — who, unfortunately, also feature a three-man committee in the backfield.
The safest bet for production is D’Onta Foreman ($4,700). He leads the Bears backfield in projection in our models, and is the only running back of the trio to see more than 20 carries in a game this year. It’s a bit thin, given the projected split in carries, but he could be worth some slight exposure in larger-field contests.
Indianapolis Colts OL (#12 in Combined Line Yards, #2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Atlanta Falcons DL
Green Bay has the best pass-blocking matchup in Week 16, but I’m looking a bit past them to the Colts. That’s because the Packers have a similarly easy matchup on the ground, but the Colts are taking on a team that is much harder to run on than throw on.
Essentially, any metric points to that being the case, with the Falcons featuring a top-ten adjusted line yards metric but coming in 28th rushing the quarterback. This sets up well for Gardner Minshew ($5,900) and the Colts’ passing game. They’ve been willing to air it out when the matchup points them that way, and as slight underdogs against a pass-funnel team, that’s certainly the case here.
Michael Pittman ($7,400) is clearly the alpha receiver of the bunch, with a target share above 30% on the season. He’s a solid one-off play this weekend, with Minshew stacks likely needing multiple receivers to make sense.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Philadelphia Eagles DL (#1 in Combined Pressure Rate — Monday Slate) vs. New York Giants OL
The Giants rank dead last in adjusted sack rate AND overall sacks allowed on the season by a wide margin in both categories. Various Giants quarterbacks have taken a whopping 76 sacks this season, with the next closest team allowing just 61.
While Philadelphia ($3,400) doesn’t have the fearsome pass rush of recent Eagles teams, they’re still a quality unit that ranks 15th in adjusted sack rate on defense. They’re the obvious top choice on Monday’s three-game slate if you can find the salary.
New York Jets DL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Washington Commanders OL
The Jets come into Week 16 ranking third in adjusted sack rate while taking on the Commanders, who rank 31st offensively in sack rate allowed. That’s about as wide of a gap as we’ll see in the NFL, even though it’s improbably not the biggest mismatch of the week.
The New York Jets ($3,100) let me down as a D/ST option last week, but they’ve been one of the better fantasy options in the league this season, averaging 8.5 DraftKings points per game. This is essentially the best possible matchup outside of the Giants — and the Jets picked up four sacks in that game against their cross-town rivals.
They’re pretty clearly one of the best on-paper defenses this week, with ownership the only potential hang-up.
Dallas Cowboys DL (#16 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Miami Dolphins
This one doesn’t make any sense on paper, as Miami is one of the best pass-blocking teams in the league…when healthy. That might not be the case this week:
feel like the phrase “entire starting OL” isn’t great pic.twitter.com/v5GOyiHYeO
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 20, 2023
I have no interest in Dallas ($3,000) if Miami gets most or all of their starters back — but a ton of interest if they don’t. Keep an eye on the news throughout the week.
