NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge For Week 16 Contests

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. From Week 5 on, I will be basing these selections almost entirely on Football Outsiders data, including pressure rate and adjusted line yards.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including The Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

The Data

Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.

With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vise-versa for quarterbacks.

Starting in Week 5, these numbers became matchup adjusted, which should make them far more efficient. Each week, they become slightly more predictive. However, they don’t take injuries into account, so keeping up on those are important. Also, keep in mind that adjusted sack rate takes into account sacks, not pressures.

Therefore quarterback play heavily influences the offensive side of the statistic.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Kansas City Chiefs OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #4 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Seattle Seahawks DL

The Chiefs were the top team in the run-blocking matchups last week, and Jerick McKinnon ($5,900) paid off in a big way. McKinnon now has back-to-back 30+ point DraftKings scores. While McKinnon is splitting work with Isiah Pacheco ($5,700) — who’s out-carried McKinnon 28 to 16 the past two weeks — McKinnon’s overall role is much better.

That’s thanks to his passing game work, which has seen him earn 17 targets on top of his carries. When you combine the value of those targets with the projected efficiency of his carries, it’s a great situation for McKinnon. The Chiefs are also double-digit favorites, so there could be plenty of carries to go around.

It’s also a solid pass-blocking matchup for the Chiefs as well, which raises the overall expectations of the offense. McKinnon is the star of the show, but all of the Chiefs’ offensive starters are very much in play here.

New Orleans Saints OL (#2 in Combined Line Yards, #9 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Cleveland Browns DL

The Saints have one of the top running game matchups in Week 16 while ranking much lower in pass blocking. That’s not a function of their offensive front so much as a reflection of the Browns. The Saints rank middle of the pack in run and pass blocking, but the Browns are a significant run funnel.

With injuries throughout the backfield, that leaves Alvin Kamara ($6,800) as the beneficiary of the strong matchup. They had a similar situation last week, and Kamara was fed 21 carries. While his DraftKings score wasn’t anything special, a few more yards (he finished at 91) or a touchdown would’ve been a big day.

Given his dud last week, Kamara could fly a bit under the radar this week. He’s a solid tournament play for that reason, as he was close to a much bigger game.

Tennessee Titans OL (#5 in Combined Line Yards, #14 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Houston Texans DL

While it’s not necessarily one of the top few offensive line matchups, this one is worth mentioning because of Derrick Henry ($8,600). The Titans have a roughly average run-blocking unit (ranked #12 in adjusted line yards), so we want to target the big dog when the opposing defense struggles against the run.

That certainly describes the Texans. They rank 27th in adjusted line yards and 24th in DVOA against the run. Henry gashed the Texans for 219 yards and two touchdowns earlier this season, the fourth consecutive time he went for over 200 yards and two scores against them.

He should be a priority this week.

Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Buffalo Bills DL (#1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears OL

The Bears’ adjusted sack rate allowed is so far above the rest — they make almost any opponent the top defensive line option of the week, almost by default. Buffalo ($4,000) ranks middle of the pack in sacks on the season but are the odds-on favorite to lead the league this week.

While their defense is max-priced at $4,000, it’s an excellent pay-up-to-be-contrarian spot. They’re favored by 8.5, with the Bears implied for just 16 points.

Dallas Cowboys DL (#2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Philadelphia Eagles OL

The Eagles’ offensive line is on the older side, with a reputation that exceeds their actual performance this year. Particularly in pass protection, where they rank just 20th in adjusted sack rate. Combine that with the Dallas pass rush, which ranks No. 2 in the league, and you have a recipe for a tough day for the Eagles.

Of course, we’ve also buried the lede a bit here. Jalen Hurts is injured and likely out of the game — with Gardner Minshew ($4,800) likely in at quarterback for the Eagles. While he’s an above-average backup, he’s also relatively mistake-prone. That makes Dallas ($2,600) an absolute steal this week as 4.5-point favorites.

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Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.