Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS. It can also be one of the most valuable.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. As the season rolls in, metrics like adjusted line yard and adjusted sack rate are a good way to judge a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Into the middle third of the season, we can feel fairly confident about the data powering the table below. The one caveat is injuries, as we still need to be aware of when teams are missing key players on either side of the ball.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and pressure rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders (now at FTN) statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered, though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vice versa for quarterbacks.
We’re covering both Saturday’s three-game slate and Sunday’s 10-game main slate in this piece. Teams playing on Saturday are highlighted in blue for easy differentiation.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Detroit Lions OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #2 in Combined Sack Rate — Saturday Ranks) vs. Denver Broncos DL
This one comes with a big caveat, as the Lions offensive line has struggled in recent weeks. They allowed four sacks against the Bears in Week 14, with all four credited to starting left tackle Taylor Decker. Decker has since been held out of practice with a back injury, suggesting he was less than full strength heading into that one.
On the good news front, starting center Frank Ragnow returned to practice on Tuesday. The third-best center in the league according to PFF ratings, his absence was felt by the Lions last week.
Getting Glasgow back but losing Decker would probably be an improvement for Detroit, given the former’s strong PFF grades and Detroit’s desire to run the ball up the middle. Either way, it’s worth keeping an eye on the news as we head into the weekend.
Both players being healthy would be a big boost for the Lions’ run game, keeping both Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,700) and David Montgomery ($6,400) in play on a three-game slate. That’s where my bigger interest is anyway, as Denver ranks 31st in adjusted line yards but top-ten in adjusted sack rate defensively.
San Francisco 49ers OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #8 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Arizona Cardinals DL
Another team that’s likely to focus on the ground game is the 49ers, who are 13.5-point favorites on the road in Arizona this week. They’ve been steadily climbing the offensive line metrics since star left tackle Trent Williams returned in Week 10. PFF’s fourth-rated offensive tackle, he’s been a huge boost to the 49ers offensive front.
That of course means it’s a great spot for Christian McCaffrey ($9,300) — not that there are really bad spots for CMC. Given the likely game script, McCaffrey could be pulled early on in this one, though, leaving room for backup running backs Jordan Mason ($4,600) or Elijah Mitchell ($4,400) to take a larger role.
Mitchell is currently listed as doubtful, so keep an eye on the news tab as we get closer to Sunday. His presence or absence could be an important factor to the slate.
Buffalo Bills OL (#8 in Combined Line Yards, #2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Dallas Cowboys DL
The formerly fearsome Cowboys defense front ranks just 18th in adjusted sack rate this season. That’s good news for the Bills, who should be throwing a ton as they take on the high-powered Dallas offense.
This game has a total of over 50 — the first such total we’ve seen in a while — making it fairly easily the best DFS game of the week. The fact that the matchup should push the Bills to the air obviously helps the cause and keeps Josh Allen ($8,200) and Stefon Diggs ($8,400) firmly in the conversation.
It’s also worth noting that Dallas is more of a “neutral” than a “positive” matchup in the trenches, so focusing on the Bills side of this game (depending on ownership) might be the sharper way to build.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Detroit Lions DL (#1 in Combined Pressure Rate — Saturday Slate) vs. Denver Broncos OL
Detroit is projecting with the best matchup in the trenches on both offense and defense this week. However — just like on offense — the numbers might not paint a complete picture here.
Denver made a major turnaround offensively partway through this season. Detroit has also struggled to generate pressure up front and allowed five straight quarterbacks to top 24 DraftKings points.
This means the numbers might be more a reflection of the early season success (or lack thereof) from both fronts. Still, Detroit ($3,000) is the cheapest favored defense on the slate, as well as the biggest favorites. That makes them a solid play, especially if they can get back to their early-season success defensively.
Los Angeles Rams DL (#3 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Washington Commanders OL
The Commanders’ offensive line has improved enough that we aren’t going out of our way to pick on them weekly. However, they’re still a bad line, with quarterback Sam Howell ($6,300) taking at least three sacks in all but one game this season.
This is bad news against a LA Rams ($3,100) defense averaging three sacks per game over the last six weeks, with six turnovers in that span. They’re simply too cheap for the matchup, especially considering they’re favored by roughly a touchdown.
There’s certainly more upside in taking on teams against the Jets and Giants — both of whom have awful quarterback play to go with the rough matchup — but you’re paying for it. This makes the Rams the best value at defense this week, especially in cash games.
