NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge For Week 15 Contests

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. From Week 5 on, I will be basing these selections almost entirely on Football Outsiders data, including pressure rate and adjusted line yards.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including The Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

The Data

Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.

With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vise-versa for quarterbacks.

Starting in Week 5, these numbers became matchup adjusted, which should make them far more efficient. Each week, they become slightly more predictive. However, they don’t take injuries into account, so keeping up on those are important. Also, keep in mind that adjusted sack rate takes into account sacks, not pressures.

Therefore quarterback play heavily influences the offensive side of the statistic.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Kansas City Chiefs OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #4 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Houston Texans DL

While much of this ranking is about the Texans’ futility — they rank bottom-five in both adjusted line yards and sack rate — the Chiefs’ offensive unit is much improved as well. Kansas City comes in as a top-five unit in both the run and pass game.

The bigger appeal this week will be the ground game, with the Chiefs as the biggest favorites on the week. It’s a two-man committee, with Isiah Pacheco ($5,900) and Jerrick McKinnon ($5,200) sharing duties for the Chiefs. McKinnon exploded for over 35 points last week, but only 2.2 of those came thanks to rushing production.

Therefore, Pacheco is likely the better play this week. He saw 13 carries and three targets last week, which could be enough to post a big price-considered score if the efficiency is there. The way the offensive line sets up, it should be.

Las Vegas Raiders OL (#2 in Combined Line Yards, #14 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. New England Patriots DL

This is a familiar situation for the Raiders, who feature the league’s best run-blocking unit. As usual, the matchup is expected to be far better for Josh Jacobs ($8,100) than the Raiders’ passing attack.

New England is a middle-of-the-road defensive front though, so this isn’t a total smash spot for Jacobs. His four previous 30+ point games came against the teams ranked 24th-27th in adjusted line yards — the Patriots rank 16th. (He also scored 25 against the 28th-ranked Chargers while rushing for over five yards per carry.)

Therefore, we should temper our expectations on Jacobs a bit. He should be in for a solid game but has a lower chance of reaching his ceiling than he does against the bottom-tier run defenses.

New Orleans Saints OL (#3 in Combined Line Yards, #3 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Atlanta Falcons DL

The DFS community has mostly written off Alvin Kamara ($6,800), who’s failed to hit salary-based expectations in five straight games since his 42-point explosion in October. However, this could be a good time to go back to him.

Mark Ingram has been inexplicably playing in front of Kamara for a few weeks, but he’s likely to miss this game. That should put Kamara back in the driver’s seat in an excellent matchup with the Falcons. They rank 31st in adjusted line yards, and 28th in overall DVOA against the run.

Kamara is unlikely to see a massive workload here, but 12-15 carries and a handful of targets could be more than enough against Atlanta. With his salary back below $7,000, this is a perfect buy-low opportunity.

Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Philadelphia Eagles DL (#1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears OL

As long as they’re playing on the main slate, whichever defense is facing the Bears routinely gets the top spot in this column. The Bears adjusted sack rate of 12.7% is by far the highest in the league, with the next closest team coming in at 10%.

This week, it’s Philadelphia ($3,900) in the dream matchup. They’re the No. 2 ranked team in adjusted sack rate themselves, so it could be a long day for the Bears offense. When combined with a likely negative game script for Chicago (8.5-point underdogs), this is a smash spot for Philadelphia.

Their price tag is near the DraftKings maximum, but they have slate-breaking potential. Hopefully, they come in at lower ownership and we can pay up to be contrarian.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Cincinnati Bengals OL

On the budget side of things, Tampa Bay ($2,600) is a solid option. The Bengals have surrendered the sixth-most sacks in the league this season, while the Bucs have a top-five pass rush. They’re only $100 cheaper than Denver ($2,700), who have a worse line matchup but will be facing off with a backup quarterback for the Cardinals.

That means most of the field should be off the Bucs, whose defense has played fairly well this year. They’re a solid GPP pivot.

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Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.