Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS. It can also be one of the most valuable.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. As the season rolls in, metrics like adjusted line yard and adjusted sack rate are a good way to judge a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Into the middle third of the season, we can feel fairly confident about the data powering the table below. The one caveat is injuries, as we still need to be aware of when teams are missing key players on either side of the ball.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
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The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and pressure rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders (now at FTN) statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered, though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vice versa for quarterbacks.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
New Orleans Saints OL (#2 in Combined Line Yards, #2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers DL
There hasn’t been much fantasy goodness from the Saints in recent weeks, but they could in a get-right matchup with the Panthers. As we’ve noted all season, Carolina is the league’s worst run defense by DVOA — which is great news for a team likely to play run-heavy with their starting quarterback injured.
Obviously, the primary interest is Alvin Kamara ($8,200), who’s coming off his best game in a while against a much tougher Lions defense. Jamaal Williams ($4,300) could see some increased work, too, especially if this game turns into a blowout. Finally, a strong ground game matchup also helps “tight end” Taysom Hill ($5,400), who saw 13 rush attempts last week.
With Jameis Winston ($5,500) under center, it’s harder to get excited about the passing attack, but he could connect on a deep ball or two to Chris Olave ($7,000) — or we could see Hill with a few passing attempts this week as well.
Buffalo Bills OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #10 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Kansas City Chiefs DL
The Chiefs might be the most extreme run funnel defense in the league, ranking third in DVOA against the pass but 27th against the run. While there are worse teams against the run (Carolina), those teams are also easier to attack through the air.
Which creates a tricky spot for Bills’ players in DFS. Buffalo’s top options are largely those in the passing attack, mainly quarterback Josh Allen ($8,300) and top receiver Stefon Diggs ($8,800). I’m unlikely to pay up for Diggs in this matchup, but I have some interest in Allen — who does much of his work on the ground anyway.
Running back James Cook ($6,000) is also a sneaky option. He’s had at least 20 total opportunities (targets+carries) in each of the last two weeks, posting solid scores despite tougher run defenses. If the game script stays workable for the Bills rushing attack, he could be an under-the-radar steal.
Detroit OL (#13 in Combined Line Yards, #1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears DL
This matchup is another conundrum, with the run-first Lions having a much better matchup through the air against the Bears. Chicago has been much better in stuffing the run than getting to the quarterback all season — though it’s evened out a bit after trading for Montez Sweat.
All things considered, I still expect Jared Goff ($6,400) to have plenty of time in the pocket in this game. However, that might not be enough to make him a good play. He’s notoriously sensitive to weather conditions, and this game is outside in Chicago in December.
Short-area receivers like tight end Sam LaPorta ($6,100) are probably still fine, but factors outside of the offensive line make this a less-than-optimal spot.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Cleveland Browns DL (#6 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars OL
We have a rare situation where the biggest DFS impact from an injury might be on the opposing team’s defense. That’s because Trevor Lawrence of the Jaguars was injured Monday night — after Week 14 salaries were already released.
Cleveland ($3,000) was already a solid value, thanks to a pass rush that ranks third in adjusted sack rate in the league. Jacksonville’s offensive line is slightly above average, but it was still a matchup that favored the defense. Of course, things are different now with CJ Beathard ($4,900) under center.
The Browns will be the overwhelming chalk at defense but are still probably the best play for cash games and smaller tournaments, thanks to their reasonable salary and strong projection.
Los Angeles Chargers DL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Denver Broncos OL
While they don’t have the benefit of taking on a backup quarterback, the Chargers do have an excellent matchup in the trenches this week. Denver has struggled in pass protection all season, ranking 27th in adjusted sack rate. That’s not great news when taking on the Chargers ($3,200).
Los Angeles isn’t a great overall defense, but it’s not the defensive front’s fault. They rank fourth in adjusted sack rate and tied for third in total sacks with 41 — or more than three a game. With the Broncos’ sloppy overall execution offensively, the Chargers are my favorite pivot from the Browns for larger tournaments.
