Projecting line play — or for our sake — the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. From Week 5 on, I will be basing these selections almost entirely on Football Outsiders data, including pressure rate and adjusted line yards.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including The Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vise-versa for quarterbacks.
Starting in Week 5, these numbers became matchup adjusted, which should make them far more efficient. Each week, they become slightly more predictive. However, they don’t take injuries into account, so keeping up on those are important. Also, keep in mind that adjusted sack rate takes into account sacks, not pressures.
Therefore quarterback play heavily influences the offensive side of the statistic.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Las Vegas Raiders OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #13 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Seattle Seahawks DL
Another week, another great run-blocking situation in front of Josh Jacobs ($7,700). Most of the discrepancy between run and pass-blocking success is due to the Raiders themselves, but Seattle exacerbates that trend this week. The Seahawks rank 10th in adjusted sack rate but are down at 18th when it comes to adjusted line yards.
It’s also a reasonably strong game script for Jacobs and the ground game, with the Raiders only 3.5-point underdogs. The Raiders are in the bottom third of the league in pass rate over expectation, so even a reasonably close game script should lead to plenty of touches for Jacobs.
Jacobs leads all running backs in our median projections while falling outside of the top five in salary. That makes him an awesome play for GPPs, and a cash game must.
Miami Dolphins OL (#2 in Combined Line Yards, #4 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Houston Texans DL
Teams have abused the Texans on the ground all season, leading to Houston having a ridiculous +7.1 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to running backs — by far the worst in the league. Don’t expect that to change this week, as Miami’s 12th ranked run blocking unit gets their turn.
Unfortunately, there’s not quite as clear of a lead back in Miami as there is with a team like Las Vegas. It does seem like Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,900) is on his way to taking over that role, however. Since being traded to Miami, he had nine carries, then 17 before missing last week.
He’ll split time with Raheem Mostert ($5,700) but with a strong lean toward Wilson, assuming he’s fully healthy. Additionally, it’s a great spot for the Dolphins’ passing attack, with the big concern being a game script that takes the ball away from Tua Tagovailoa ($6,900).
Still, it’s likely that Tua and his receivers put up reasonable scores before that happens. If the Texans offense can muster some resistance and force Miami to keep throwing, it’s an excellent spot for a ceiling game.
Tampa Bay Bucs OL (#3 in Combined Line Yards, #2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Cleveland Browns DL
We haven’t seen much of Tampa Bay on the positive side of the offensive line matchups this season. For good reason, as they rank middle of the pack in run blocking, and their top spot in adjusted sack rate is far more a function of Tom Brady ($5,800) getting rid of the ball than it is strong protection.
However, the Browns have been absolutely dreadful against the run, ranking ahead of only Green Bay in adjusted line yards. The challenge, of course, is whether to go with Leonard Fournette ($5,800) or Rachaad White ($5,100) out of the Tampa Bay backfield.
White seemed to take over the early down work last week, getting 22 carries to Fournette’s 14. Fournette still has a solid pass-game role, though, out-targeting White in every game. With the Bucs as slight favorites, White is probably the better option this week despite his lack of targets.
Both White and the Tampa passing game are probably a bit thin for cash games but firmly in GPP consideration. The solid pass-blocking matchup makes deep threat Mike Evans ($6,700) the better play than Chris Godwin ($6,000), whose shorter aDOT routes are more heavily targeted with Brady under duress.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
New York Jets DL (#1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears OL
The Jets defense has been a revelation this season, with top 10 ranks in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. It’s not just their line play that’s stepped up — they’re the sixth-best defense by overall DVOA.
This puts them in a strong spot against the Chicago Bears, who have allowed more sacks than any other team. With New York ($3,300) on the expensive side, they could go a bit overlooked this week. However, they lead our projections in median and ceiling, so they’re an excellent choice if you can find the salary.
Kansas City Chiefs (#2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Los Angeles Rams OL
For $500 less, Kansas City ($2,800) should be the slate’s most popular defense. They’re taking on a Rams team that has struggled mightily in pass protection all season while continuing to be riddled with injuries on the offensive line.
With Matthew Stafford set to miss another week, the situation is even worse for the Rams. Bryce Perkins ($5,000) is in a tough spot against a Chiefs front that ranks third in adjusted sack rate. Kansas City is favored by more than two touchdowns, so they’ll have plenty of chances for sacks and turnovers.
Their $2,800 price tag is far too cheap considering all of the factors, making them the top Pts/Sal play on the slate.
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