Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS. It can also be one of the most valuable.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. As the season rolls in, metrics like adjusted line yard and adjusted sack rate are a good way to judge a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Into the middle third of the season, we can feel fairly confident about the data powering the table below. The one caveat is injuries, as we still need to be aware of when teams are missing key players on either side of the ball.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
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The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and pressure rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders (now at FTN) statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered, though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vice versa for quarterbacks.
The trade deadline threw us some curveballs — mainly notable Commanders pass rushers being shipped to other teams — so we’ll make sure to highlight when the numbers may be off when applicable.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Miami Dolphins OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #3 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Los Vegas Raiders DL
The Dolphins offensive line gets overlooked when discussing their offensive output this season, but they’ve been a major part of the team’s success. Miami ranks third in adjusted line yards and fifth in adjusted sack rate, far exceeding their mediocre preseason expectations.
Now they draw the Raiders, who, despite having Maxx Crosby, rank 31st in adjusted line yards and 20th in adjusted sack rate. They’ve also designated speedster De’Von Achane ($6,600) to return from IR. Achane is averaging a ridiculous 27.9 DraftKings points this season even on limited touches, largely thanks to his big play ability.
The matchup with Las Vegas increases the odds of big plays from both Achane and Raheem Mostert ($6,900), who will be my primary interest in the game. With a spread of -12, it’s likelier than not that the running game takes center stage, especially if Achane returns.
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Dallas Cowboys OL (#2 in Combined Line Yards, #10 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers DL
This week might be the last call for Tony Pollard ($6,600). He finally got his feature-back role in 2023 but has been a massive disappointment, as the Cowboys run him up the middle and waste his open-field abilities.
However, this week, they’re facing the Panthers, the league’s worst team against the run by adjusted line yards and DVOA. They’ve allowed the second-most points to running backs and are double-digit underdogs. We saw Dallas lean pass-heavy in a blowout win last week, but that matchup wasn’t quite as juicy for the ground game.
It might also be a breakout week for Rico Dowdle ($4,600), who saw a season-high 12 touches in last week’s blowout win. The scoreboard obviously contributed to that, but he’s been the more effective runner this season and could be in line for an increased share of the carries.
Detroit Lions OL (#11 in Combined Line Yards, #1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears DL
This one comes with a caveat, as the Bears traded for Chase Young at the trade deadline, which in theory bolsters their pass rush. Last week, they had just their third multi-sack game of the season.
Still, that game was against Carolina, who ranks 25th in adjusted sack rate — Detroit ranks number two. With Jared Goff ($6,600) at home at Ford Field, he’s in line for another solid performance against the Bears. Detroit skews run heavy in general, but this matchup is much better through the air against Chicago. They rank sixth in DVOA against the run but 29th against the pass.
This makes Goff stacks very viable this week, with a variety of options on how to build them. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,800) is the obvious stacking partner, with his team-leading 28% target share. However, it might be a good week to take a flier on Jameson Williams ($3,300), too.
Williams has the deepest average depth of target (aDOT) on the team, and solid pass blocking should give those downfield routes more time to develop against a weak secondary.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Buffalo Bills DL (#2 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. New York Jets OL
I have Washington ($3,600) as the biggest on-paper mismatch against the Giants awful front. However, most of Washington’s statistical output was based on games with Chase Young and Montez Sweat on the team. After trading away both edge rushers, they’ve produced just one sack in the last two weeks.
Which brings us to Buffalo ($4,000). The Bills have nearly as strong of a mismatch against a Jets team that ranks 28th in adjusted sack rate allowed. Throw in a shake quarterback in Zach Wilson ($4,800), and you have a recipe for plenty of defensive production from the Bills.
They’re obviously expensive and don’t usually score enough to justify that price tag. Still, that could make them a valuable low-owned option at a position where it pays to be contrarian.
Tennesse Titans DL (#10 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars OL
There aren’t many sub-$3,000 defenses worth considering this week, as DraftKings continues to aggressively price up the better options at defense. However, Tennessee ($2,900) is interesting. The Titans rank seventh in the NFL in adjusted sack rate against a Jaguars offense that ranks sixth in pass rate over expectation.
The Titans are unlikely to keep points off the board against the somewhat explosive Jaguars. However, they could get to the quarterback enough to pay off their price tag. Pressure also creates turnovers, giving them an outside shot of taking one back for a touchdown and breaking the slate open with their score.
I’d consider loading up on the Titans if their ownership projection comes in reasonably low, as they have the highest median and ceiling projection of any team below $3,000. Most players will likely look to pay up for a heavy favorite or punt off the position further with a super cheap team.
