Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS. It can also be one of the most valuable.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. As the season rolls in, metrics like adjusted line yard and adjusted sack rate are a good way to judge a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Into the middle third of the season, we can feel fairly confident about the data powering the table below. The one caveat is injuries, as we still need to be aware of when teams are missing key players on either side of the ball.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
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The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and pressure rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders (now at FTN) statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered, though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vice versa for quarterbacks.
The trade deadline threw us some curveballs — mainly notable Commanders pass rushers being shipped to other teams — so we’ll make sure to highlight when the numbers may be off when applicable.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Detroit Lions OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #10 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Los Angeles Chargers DL
The last time we saw the Lions in action, we got a brief taste of how good of a fantasy asset Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000) could be behind this elite offensive line. Detroit’s front had struggled with cluster injuries all season but was close to full strength before their Week 8 bye and paved the way for a 26/152/1 rushing line from Gibbs.
Now the line should be in even better shape health-wise. It’s a strong matchup against a Chargers unit that ranks 23rd in adjusted line yards. Unfortunately, from a DFS perspective, Detroit should also get back fellow running back David Montgomery ($6,900).
Montgomery was seeing the bulk of the carries before his injury, making this a tough situation from a fantasy perspective. Gibbs has almost certainly earned a larger share of the role, but likely not enough to justify his $7,000 price tag. He could get there on some explosive plays, however, especially with the way paved by Detroit’s line. Or Montgomery could have another three-touchdown day.
Neither option is especially likely, but the efficiency should be there, keeping both backs in the GPP mix.
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San Francisco 49ers OL (#13 in Combined Line Yards, #1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars DL
Detroit stands out from a run-blocking perspective, but San Francisco has the clear best pass-protection matchup on the board. They’re also coming off a bye and are hoping to get all-world left tackle Trent Williams back in Week 10.
Like Detroit, they’re also getting back a key fantasy contributor in Deebo Samuel ($6,200). The splits for both Brandon Aiyuk ($7,100) and George Kittle ($6,100) are far better without Samuel, making this a tough spot for DFS.
Of course, all of this is good news for Brock Purdy ($5,700). The 49ers passer has thrown five interceptions over his last three games — all of which came against top-13 teams in adjusted sack rate. He’s a highly pressure-sensitive quarterback but is facing a Jaguars team that ranks 27th in adjusted sack rate.
The matchup above is largely based on statistics accumulated without Williams in the lineup, so if he’s close to full strength, the actual matchup could be even better — making Purdy an excellent choice for all contest types. It’s worth noting that the three poor games from Purdy also coincides perfectly with the games Samuel missed (or was injured in) while Purdy had topped 21 fantasy points in the three previous contests.
Dallas Cowboys OL (#5 in Combined Line Yards, #5 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. New York Giants DL
Dallas is the only team this week to rank in the top five in both run and pass blocking as they take on an awful Giants defense. The G-men rank 31st in adjusted sack rate and have just 15 sacks on the year — with six of those coming against the Commanders.
That means in their other eight games, they’ve recorded just nine sacks, including none in the season opener against these Cowboys. Dallas hung 40 points on them in that game, with running back Tony Pollard ($7,300) posting his best game of the season.
Pollard has been a letdown since then but could be in for a rebound game, considering Dallas is an absurd 16.5-point favorite. The whole offense is in play, though. Even backup running back Rico Dowdle ($4,300) could see an expanded workload if when this game gets out of hand. He’s an excellent super-sleeper this week.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Dallas Cowboys DL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. New York Giants OL
There’s a reason Dallas ($4,400) is such a massive favorite, and it’s not entirely due to the offense. Their defense is also in a great spot against the Giants, who will be forced to play backup quarterback Tommy Devito ($4,700) behind a league-worst offensive line by adjusted sack rate.
We have the Cowboys defense projected nearly three points above Devito, which tells you everything you need to know about how this one will likely go. They’re a great play if you can find the salary. As we saw last week, paying up for a lower-owned defense is an excellent GPP strategy.
Arizona Cardinals DL (#6 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Atlanta Falcons OL
For the budget-conscious lineup builder, Arizona ($2,500) stands out in Week 10. They’re a slightly below-average pass-rushing unit at 21st in the league, but the Falcons have surrendered a ton of sacks. They rank 26th in adjusted sack rate, though their raw numbers are a bit lower due to their extreme rushing rate on offense.
Still, we can’t be all that picky with the third-cheapest defense. The Falcons are implied for a moderate 22 points, with Arizona merely 1.5-point underdogs. They’re a fairly clear cash game option this week.
