Projecting line play — or for our sake — the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. From Week 5 on, I will be basing these selections almost entirely on Football Outsiders data, including pressure rate and adjusted line yards.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including The Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vise-versa for quarterbacks.
Starting in Week 5, these numbers became matchup adjusted, which should make them far more efficient. Each week, they become slightly more predictive. However, they don’t take injuries into account, so keeping up on those are important. Also, keep in mind that adjusted sack rate takes into account sacks, not pressures.
Therefore quarterback play heavily influences the offensive side of the statistic.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Lav Vegas Raiders OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #10 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. New Orleans Saints DL
The Raiders headlined last week’s column, and Josh Jacobs paid off in a massive way. In Week 7, he ran the ball 20 times for 143 yards and three rushing touchdowns. Neither the three scores nor the 7+ yards per carry are sustainable, but it’s still a great spot for Jacobs.
The Raiders have the best adjusted line yards rate in the league, so they’ll continue to pop in all but the toughest matchups. While the Saints are certainly a better defensive front than the Texans, they’re roughly league average in terms of line yards allowed.
The Raiders are also (slight) favorites in this one, so everything points to the bulk of their offensive production coming on the ground. Jacobs is responsible for the majority of that, making him an excellent play for all contest types.
Tennessee Titans OL (#2 in Combined Line Yards, #14 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Houston Texans DL
Just like last week, we’ll look to pick on the Texans’ awful defensive front in the run game. Also, like last week, they’re facing a team with the perfect back to exploit it. That, of course, being the Big Dog himself, Derrick Henry.
Henry has looked no worse for the wear in his return from last season’s foot injury. He ranks second in the NFL in rushing attempts and first in attempts per game at a robust 22.3. His YPC is an uninspiring 4.0, but half of his six games have come against teams that rank top-three in adjusted line yards (Bills once and the Colts twice).
The Texans rank 30th, so we can safely assume a more efficient performance from Henry. The Titans are also favored, so the volume is very likely to be there as well. He trails only Jacobs and Saquon Barkley in median projection at running back.
Detroit Lions OL (#16 in Combined Line Yards, #2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Miami Dolphins DL
The Lions are on the list not for the running game matchup but because of the passing game. Their offensive line has been excellent in pass protection, ranking fifth in adjusted sack rate on the season.
Crucially, Jared Goff is one of the most pressure-sensitive quarterbacks in the league. The data below is provided courtesy of my friends at the 33rd team, with their excellent tool, The Edge:
(Goff overall)
(Goff under pressure)
His completion percentage drops nearly 20%, and his rating under pressure is an awful 47.7. Most pocket passers do better when kept clean, but Goff’s splits are some of the most extreme.
He should also have Amon-Ra St. Brown and De’Andre Swift back in action for Week 8. The Lions are playing at home in a dome as 3.5-point underdogs. This one has major shootout potential, and at just $5,500 on DraftKings, it’s an excellent spot for Goff and the Lions’ passing game.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Dallas Cowboys DL (#1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears OL
The Cowboys’ pass rush has been a force this season. They lead the league with 29 sacks on the season — no other team has more than 24. Now, they’re taking on a Bears offensive line that ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate allowed.
It’s not too often we get a worst against first matchup like this, and we should take advantage of it when we can. While Dallas is essentially “maximum priced” at $4,000, they already have two games of at least 22 DraftKings points on the season — and four in the double digits.
Ownership will likely be on the lower side as well, since most people generally avoid paying up for defenses. Against a mistake-prone quarterback like Justin Fields, this is a massive opportunity to pay up to be contrarian.
Washinton Commanders DL (#3 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Indianapolis Colts OL
On the cheaper end of things, Washington is also projecting as a solid play. They’re just $2,600 and are likely to be a chalky defensive option. While they’re still missing Chase Young for at least one more week, Montez Sweat anchors a group that ranks seventh in adjusted sack rate and eighth in sacks on the season.
The real appeal to the Commanders is the Colts’ quarterback situation. They announced this week that they’ll be starting Sam Ehlinger, a former sixth-round draft pick who’s yet to attempt a pass in the NFL. The odds of costly mistakes are way higher than with steady veteran Matt Ryan at the helm.
The Colts offensive line won’t be much help for the first-time starter, either. They rank 26th in adjusted sack rate on the season.
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