Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Now that we’ve crossed the magical Week 5 line, we’ll be relying heavily on the data below. It’s now matchup-adjusted, which makes it fairly reliable, barring any key injuries.
The table below includes every team’s combined adjusted line yards and sack rate with their Week 8 opponent. Let’s get to it.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Denver Broncos OL (#1 In Adjusted Line Yards, #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers DL
Whichever team is taking on the Panthers gets a massive boost on a weekly basis. The Panthers’ front ranks dead last in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. That’s shown up in their scoring defense as well. They’ve allowed 34.7 points per game, by far the worst in the league. The difference between the Panthers and the 31st-ranked Cowboys is larger than that between Dallas and number 14 Miami.
The problem this week is what to do with that information. Denver hasn’t exactly been a fantasy gold mine this season. Their backfield is a 65/35 split in favor of Javonte Williams ($6,000), and QB Bo Nix ($5,600) has as many interceptions as touchdowns this season.
However, given the likely game flow — Denver is favored by nine — the ground game seems more appealing. If Williams gets 65% of 30+ carries in a blowout, that’s a pretty solid day. Especially with the likely efficiency boost provided by the matchup.
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Green Bay Packers OL (#8 In Adjusted Line Yards, #2 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars DL
While they’re not Panthers-level bad, the Jags rank bottom five in adjusted sack rate and 32nd in overall defensive DVOA. They’ve actually been reasonably solid against the run in terms of adjusted line yards, though, with a top-ten ranking.
That could set up a pass funnel situation for Jordan Love ($7,100) and the Packers. Their 27 implied points are the second-highest on the slate, and this game has shootout potential if the Jaguars offense can continue to show improvements.
Love is a bit expensive for cash games, but makes a lot of sense as a GPP option since he can be paired with Jaguars bring-backs to build around a shootout.
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Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Baltimore Ravens DL vs. Cleveland Browns OL (#1 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
We have a rare situation where an injury to a starting quarterback probably hurts the opposing defense — but Baltimore ($3,400) is still in a great spot against the Browns.
While they may not take as many sacks as Deshaun Watson, neither Dorian Thompson-Robinson nor Jameis Winston ($5,200) are quarterbacks to be avoided with opposing defenses. Winston, in particular, is known for being turnover-prone.
It’s not entirely clear who will start for the Browns, but either one will have a tough time against a Ravens defense that ranks fourth with 22 sacks overall this season. If you can find the salary, they’re a great play.
Washington Commanders DL vs. Chicago Bears OL (#3 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
Much like the Giants last week, Washington ($2,900) is an interesting sub-$3,000 option thanks to their pass rush. Neither team has a good overall defense, but both can get to the quarterback.
Washington ranks seventh in adjusted sack rate, while Chicago is 31st in adjusted sack rate allowed. The Commanders prospects probably comes down to the game script. If the Bears are forced to throw, there should be plenty of defensive scoring.
For that reason, the health of Jayden Daniels ($7,300), who exited last week with an injury, is a factor here. His presence helps the defense’s outlook considerably.
