NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge for Week 7

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.

The Data

Now that we’ve crossed the magical Week 5 line, we’ll be relying heavily on the data below. It’s now matchup-adjusted, which makes it fairly reliable, barring any key injuries.

The table below includes every team’s combined adjusted line yards and sack rate with their Week 7 opponent. Let’s get to it.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Carolina Panthers OL (#1 In Adjusted Line Yards, #12 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Washington Commanders DL

Week 7 might be the end of the Chuba Hubbard ($6,500) era in Carolina, at least as a lead back. Rookie RB Jonathan Brooks has had his practice window opened, with Week 8 seeming like the likeliest return date.

Fortunately for Hubbard, he gets an excellent matchup this week in his swan song as a top fantasy option. His Panthers are taking on the Commanders, who rank 27th in adjusted line yards and 21st in DVOA against the run.

The concern here for Hubbard is the game flow, with Carolina installed as 7.5-point underdogs against the explosive Washington offense. However, Hubbard has had solid scores even in lopsided losses before, so he’s at worst a high-floor option.

It looks like tougher sledding for the Panthers passing attack, so my focus in this one will primarily be on Hubbard.

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Washington Commanders OL (#3 In Adjusted Line Yards, #2 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers DL

On the other side of that game, it looks like another excellent spot for the Commanders offense. They’re the second-highest-scoring team in football at 29.7 points per game, with an upside way beyond that this week.

The obvious fantasy target is quarterback Jayden Daniels ($7,600), who looks like he’ll end up with the highest quarterback projections on the slate. However, given the game flow, running back Brian Robinson ($6,400) is also interesting if he returns to action.

Robinson has beat salary-based expectations in four of his five healthy games this season and should get an expanded workload if Washington controls this game. Daniels + Robinson stacks are also interesting. They have the best team total on the slate, so getting exposure to all of their touchdowns (at least in theory) should produce a lot of fantasy points.

Buffalo Bills OL (#20 In Adjusted Line Yards, #3 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Atlanta Falcons DL

I wanted to highlight the Bills here due to the extreme nature of their splits in the trenches this week. The biggest fantasy story from the Bills MNF win over the Jets was the emergence of running back Ray Davis ($5,200), who picked up 20 carries for 97 yards while catching three passes for an additional 55 yards.

However, between the probable return of James Cook ($7,000) and the tough matchup, I’m far more interested in the Bills passing attack this week.

Josh Allen ($7,500) has been a top-five fantasy QB despite having extremely limited weapons. Now he faces a pass funnel defense, and the Bills have added Amari Cooper ($5,800) via trade. Cooper likely won’t be fully worked into the offense quite yet, but he’s still a huge boost to the passing attack. Allen is a sneaky GPP play this week, even if it might not be time for Cooper just yet.

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Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Cincinnati Bengals DL vs. Cleveland Browns OL (#2 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)

Cincinnati ($3,300) is probably the best overall defense on the slate. They get to take on the Browns dysfunctional offense led by Deshaun Watson ($4,900), right after Cleveland threw in the towel on their season by trading their top wide receiver.

The Browns’ league-worst adjusted sack rate is probably more a reflection on Watson than the Browns offensive line. Regardless of whose fault it is, it still is a big boost to the Bengals pass rush.

They’re also favored by about a touchdown and reasonably priced, all things considered. They’re the top option for all contest types, barring any more major news between now and Sunday.

New York Giants DL vs. Philadelphia Eagles OL (#1 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)

While the Eagles are a talented group on paper, they’ve failed to top 20 points in their last three games while averaging 1.6 turnovers per contest and ranking 25th in adjusted sack rate allowed. Like with the Browns, that might be as much a reflection on the quarterback than on the offensive line, but the numbers are what they are.

They’re taking on a Giants ($2,500) defense that surprisingly leads the league in adjusted sack rate and total sacks through six weeks. The Giants are underdogs here, but for just $2,500, they should be able to get to the quarterback enough to pay off their light price tag.

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.