Projecting line play — or for our sake — the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. From Week 5 on, I will be basing these selections almost entirely on Football Outsiders data, including pressure rate and adjusted line yards.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. In Weeks 1 through 4, the primary resources will be The Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vise-versa for quarterbacks.
Heading into Week 6, these numbers are matchup adjusted, which should make them far more efficient. Strength of schedule plays a major role in (some of) these numbers. Also keep in mind that adjusted sack rate takes into account sacks, not pressures.
Therefore quarterback play heavily influences the offensive side of the statistic.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Arizona Cardinals OL (#2 Combined Line Yards, #2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Seattle Seahawks DL
The matchup bodes well for the Cardinals in both the passing game and run game for Week 6. Kyler Murray ($7,300) has struggled a bit with a lack of clean pockets this season, but things are looking up this week. The Seahawks defense is dreadful all around, and they rank just 28th in adjusted sack rate on the season.
Additionally, the Cardinals’ ground game should be in a position to succeed here as well. James Conner ($6,100) seems to be on the optimistic side of questionable, but it wouldn’t be a shock if he missed Week 6. That would make Eno Benjamin ($4,600) a massive value in a good matchup.
The Cardinals offensive line is solid but nothing spectacular. We should be hunting for situations where they match up well, and Week 6 certainly presents one. We’ll need a bit more clarity on the injury situation before we decide how best to divide our exposures, but I’m bullish on the offense in general.
New England Patriots OL (#1 Combined Line Yards, #12 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Cleveland Browns DL
While the Patriots could have some trouble in pass protection this week, we weren’t interested in them for their passing game anyway. The main attraction is Rhamondre Stevenson, who looks likely to have the backfield mostly to himself against the Browns.
Stevenson is the top-ranked running back in our Week 6 projections, and the line matchup gives no reason to doubt that ranking. You probably didn’t need any more convincing to play Stevenson in DFS this week, but in case you did, here it is. His efficiency should be just as strong as his volume on Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers OL (#17 in Combined Line Yards, $1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers DL
Thanks to their poor ranking in the run game, the Bucs aren’t one of the better overall offensive line matchups for Week 6. However, their strong pass-block matchup is worth mentioning. Tampa is a sizable favorite against the Steelers, which generally tilts teams to a more run-heavy approach.
However, if they’re having a tough time picking up yards on the ground, it would make sense to continue to control the game through the air. Tom Brady ($6,300) is about as reliable of a passer as there is, so Tampa could choose to continue to attack through the air even with a big lead.
The strong projected pass protection also helps the Bucs downfield passing attack. That means Mike Evans ($7,000) with his deeper aDOT should be a better choice this week than Chris Godwin ($6,100) with his quicker routes.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
San Francisco 49ers DL (#1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Atlanta Falcons Offensive Line
The 49ers rank third in adjusted sack rate and first in total sacks this season. They’re matched up with a Falcons unit that ranks 25th in both categories. Whether that’s the fault of the offensive line or Marcus Mariota ($5,300) running himself into trouble is up for debate, but it’s not important for our purposes.
Either way, San Francisco ($3,700) should be one of the top DST choices on the slate. Thanks to their high price, they’re also unlikely to draw much ownership. That’s exactly what we’re looking for with our DST selections — if we can find the salary.
New Orleans Saints DL (#5 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Cincinnati Offensive Line
There’s a steep drop-off after the 49ers, with the next six teams all closer to each other than they are San Francisco. With that said, New Orleans ($2,800) might be my favorite of the bunch. They’re taking on a Bengals team with a mostly immobile quarterback in Joe Burrow ($6,700), where some of the other high-rated units have rushing quarterbacks opposite them.
Additionally, they’re the cheapest of this next group of defenses. If paying up for one of the other units, it’s probably sharper to get all the way up to the 49ers.
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