Projecting line play — or for our sake — the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. From Week 5 on, I will be basing these selections almost entirely on Football Outsiders data, including pressure rate and adjusted line yards.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Like Weeks 1 through 4, the primary resources will be The Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered though, for example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vise-versa for quarterbacks.
Heading into Week 5, these numbers are matchup adjusted, which should make them far more efficient. Strength of schedule plays a major role in (some of) these numbers. Also keep in mind that adjusted sack rate takes into account sacks, not pressures. Therefore quarterback play heavily influences the offensive side of the statistic.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
New Orleans Saints OL (#1 Combined Line Yards, #16 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Seattle Seahawks DL
The Saints have the best projected matchup on the ground this week, as they take on a Seahawks defense that was just gashed by Jamaal Williams and the Lions in Week 4. Seattle is one of four teams in the league to allow more than five line yards per run play this season.
Seattle isn’t much better in the passing game, checking in at 25th in adjusted sack rate. The Saints unit is clearly better on the ground though. They rank sixth in adjusted line yards and 25th in adjusted sack rate. However, a good chunk of that is on Jameis Winston ($5,500). His pocket time is middle of the road, despite his high sack rate.
Still, it’s a better matchup on the ground for New Orleans. That makes it an intriguing time to buy low on Alvin Kamara ($6,600) if he’s able to play. He needs a ton of efficiency to post big scores given his relatively low volume, and he’s been quiet so far this season. His $6,600 price tag is the lowest it’s been since November … of 2017.
New England Patriots OL (#3 Combined Line Yards, #15 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Detroit Lions DL
Another unit that looks to be far better in the running game is the Patriots. This time, it’s based more on their own abilities than their opponents. Detroit ranks in the 20s in both adjusted sack rate and adjusted line yards defensively, but the Patriots offensive line is far better in the running game.
I wrote about Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,500) as an early value this week, with the matchup in the trenches a big reason why. Of course, Stevenson splits work roughly evenly with Damien Harris ($5,600). Given the Lions woeful overall defense this season, I could see a case for playing them both together.
Detroit has twice allowed opposing running backs (as a unit) to top 35 points this season. At Harris and Stevenson’s combined salaries, that would equate to a combined Pts/Sal score of 3.15. No back this week is projecting above 2.7 in our models.
Additionally, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Patriots run the ball at a far higher rate than any of Detroit’s past opponents, given that they’re on their third-string quarterback for Week 5.
Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions
Both teams fall more in the “honorable mention” category for this week, largely thanks to uncertain running back situations. Atlanta split carries nearly evenly between Tyler Algiers ($4,700) and Caleb Huntley ($4,300) following Cordarelle Patterson’s injury last week. Additionally, the Bucs defensive line has heavily underperformed preseason expectations, which I expect to change moving forward.
It’s unclear if D’Andre Swift ($7,000) will return for the Lions this week, If he doesn’t, Jamaal Williams ($6,500) is in a strong spot against the Patriots, though his price reflects that. If Swift is active, it’s hard to see enough volume for either to justify their price tags.
Both Atlanta and Detroit rate significantly worse in the pass-blocking department as well, so my interest in their passing offenses is somewhat minimal.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Minnesota Vikings DL (#1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears Offensive Line
We don’t need much of an excuse to play defenses against the Bears this season. Justin Fields ($5,300) has taken the second-most sacks in the league this year with 16, despite Chicago attempting by far the fewest passes of any team in the league.
Additionally, Fields has turned it over five times already this year. Minnesota ($3,600) features a roughly average pass rush, but that’s more than enough against Fields and the Bears. They’ll be worth paying up for, especially if the price tag keeps ownership down.
Dallas Cowboys DL (#2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Los Angeles Rams Offensive Line
DFS players generally aren’t in a hurry to roster defenses against the explosive Rams offense. That could be a mistake this week. The Rams offensive line is in shambles, allowing 16 sacks — including seven last week to the 49ers. Dallas actually ranks just ahead of San Francisco in adjusted sack rate this season.
The Rams injury situation will be worth nothing though, as they were without their starting center and a starting guard last week. If both return, it will be slightly tougher sledding for the Cowboys.
Still, Dallas ($2,500) is a strong play at their near-minimum price. They’re facing an immobile quarterback who’s thrown nine more pick-sixes than any active player behind a beat-up offensive line.
San Francisco 49ers DL (#3 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers Offensive Line
San Francisco ($3,800) is the most expensive defensive unit on the slate in Week 5, but that makes them a “pay up to be contrarian” candidate. They’re clearly capable of putting up big numbers, as we saw with their seven sacks on Monday Night.
Carolina’s offensive line isn’t much better than the Rams, with essentially identical adjusted sack rates. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a repeat performance from the 49ers pass rush on Sunday.
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