Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
As somebody with zero knowledge on evaluating offensive line play, Week 5 is a happy time. That’s because line play data officially becomes matchup-adjusted, making it far more trustworthy than earlier in the season.
From here on out, we can more or less count on this data to paint an accurate picture, though it’s worth keeping an eye on injuries to key players.
The table below includes every team’s combined adjusted line yards and sack rate with their Week 5 opponent. Let’s get to it.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
San Francisco 49ers OL (#1 In Adjusted Line Yards, #13 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Arizona Cardinals
The fact that Jordan Mason ($7,400) has stepped in seamlessly to the Christian McCaffrey role is no surprise when you look at the 49ers offensive line play. They rank fifth overall in adjusted line yards created, with the teams ahead of them either off the main slate or in a tougher matchup.
The setup this week against Arizona is about as perfect as it could get for Mason. The 49ers are home favorites of more than a touchdown against a team that ranks 16th in adjusted line yards allowed and 21st in DVOA against the run overall.
Fire up Mason with confidence in all contest types this week. Brock Purdy ($6,200) and the passing attack have a tougher setup, but we probably weren’t playing him in this game script anyway.
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Baltimore Ravens OL (#4 In Adjusted Line Yards, #2 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This one is largely driven by the matchup. Baltimore ranks 13th in adjusted line yards, and their top five adjusted sack rate has a lot to do with their quarterback being hard to bring down.
The Bengals, on the other hand, are 26th in adjusted line yards allowed and 30th in adjusted sack rate. That makes this a solid spot on the ground and through the air for Baltimore, though the former is where they typically do their best work.
Based on the game script — Baltimore is favored by just 2.5 points — and the massive workload of Derrick Henry ($7,800) — it could be a perfect spot for Justice Hill ($5,300). He sees the bulk of the 3rd-down work and targets in this split backfield.
Not that Henry is a bad play, of course. While the Ravens are narrow favorites, it wouldn’t be a shock to see another positive game script against the 1-3 Bengals.
Carolina Panthers OL (#2 In Adjusted Line Yards, #5 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears
It was easy to miss the strength of the Panthers line early in the season, thanks to awful quarterback play from Bryce Young derailing the entire offense. However, they’re a top-10 run-blocking unit, with a solid #11 rank in adjusted sack rate.
That puts them in a good spot against the Bears, who rank 20th in adjusted line yards and sack rate defensively. By DVOA, Chicago is worse against the run (30th) than pass (8th) by a long shot.
That means it’s another solid situation for Chuba Hubbard ($6,100), who remains the Panthers lead back. He’s seen at least 20 opportunities each of the last two weeks while averaging over five yards per carry. His salary has come up to meet his production, but it’s still a bit lower than it should be.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Denver Broncos DL vs. Las Vegas Raiders OL (#1 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
You probably didn’t need the data to tell you that the Raiders offense is dysfunctional. They rank 27th in adjusted sack rate, 30th in adjusted line yards, and QB Gardner Minshew ($5,100) has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns.
You might not have known that the Broncos defense is borderline elite, though. They rank second in sacks, third in adjusted sack rate, and third in opponent points per game.
The fact that Denver ($2,900) isn’t one of the most expensive defenses on the slate is a rare misprice from DraftKings, which we should take advantage of in the rare spot where they’re favored.
Miami Dolphins DL vs. New England Patriots OL (#2 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
Unlike the Broncos, Miami ($3,300) is more appropriately priced than an obvious value as they take on the New England Patriots.
Miami ranks 25th in overall sacks with just six on the season, but they’re a solid 12th in adjusted sack rate. That difference is due to the fact they’ve yet to have the lead in a game this season, picking up their only win as time expired.
That might change this week. They’re only one-point underdogs against the Patriots, though the game is in New England.
They’re clearly a lesser play than the Broncos, but it’s important to fade highly-owned defenses. Miami is a solid pivot from the more popular Broncos unit.
