Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
This is officially the last week before DVOA numbers begin to adjust for matchups. With an unadjusted three-game sample size per team, we can lean a bit more heavily on the hard data while still factoring in our preseason assumptions when necessary.
Starting next week, we’ll have enough of a sample size to switch exclusively to the data below for our analysis. This week, I’ll be listing the team’s rankings according to the table, but still considering other factors.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Cincinnati Bengals OL (#1 In Adjusted Line Yards, #5 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers
This one more or less lines up with our preseason assumptions, which had the Panthers as a bottom-five defensive line that had some pass rush upside but struggles against the run. That’s held true so far, with Carolina coming into the game ranked 30th in adjusted line yards and 24th in adjusted sack rate.
The Bengals run game has been a pleasant surprise, though. They’re the top unit in adjusted line yards and have made Zack Moss ($5,900) a fantasy-relevant option despite his shared backfield duties and negative game scripts for the 0-3 Bengals.
He could be in for a big week if the Bengals are able to get and maintain a lead this week, making him a sneaky GPP option at a low price and likely low ownership on the Week 4 main slate.
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New Orleans Saints OL (#4 In Adjusted Line Yards, #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Atlanta Falcons
After averaging more than 45 points per game over the first two weeks, the Saints scored just 12 last week against the Eagles. The offensive line play might’ve been a big part of that, with the Eagles ranked fourth in PFF’s defensive line rankings coming into the season.
Now they draw the Falcons, who’ve produced just three sacks all season and were a bottom-five team coming into the season on the PFF list.
That makes this a nice “buy the dip” spot on New Orleans, especially their passing attack. Derek Carr ($5,900) is a solid value, as are his pass catchers, who were held in check last week. It’s not a bad matchup for Alvin Kamara ($7,600) on the ground either.
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Strong Defensive Line Matchups
San Francisco 49ers DL vs. New England Patriots OL (#2 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
The 49ers defensive front was ranked second best coming into the season, with the Patriots offensive line ranked second worst — and both groups have largely met their expectation.
That makes San Francisco ($3,800) an elite defense option, especially considering they’re 10-point favorites. That’s an important detail since the 49ers front has performed much better against the pass than the run.
Since we’re banking on San Francisco playing from the front when rostering their defense, don’t shy away from stacking it with members of the offense as well.
Houston Texans DL vs. Jacksonville Jaguars OL (#1 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
On the more affordable side of things, Houston ($3,000) is an excellent play this week. Their 14.7% adjusted sack rate leads the league, and the game script should put the Jaguars in obvious passing situations, often with Houston favored by a touchdown.
The Jaguars offensive front isn’t terrible, but they were rated as a below-average unit coming into the season and have played like it (at least in pass protection) so far.
This is another spot where the pass rush is far better than the run defense, so game script is important. Keep that in mind when building rosters featuring this defense.
