Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Starting this week, we have a table including the combined adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate of every team and their Week 3 opponent. This will give an at-a-glance look at the strength of the matchup for both the rushing and passing offenses in every game.
While this data is starting to carry some weight, there’s still enough variance inherent in a two-game sample size that it should be taken with a grain of salt. Preseason evaluations are still the better way to evaluate these units, though we’re close to making the switch to the numbers.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Detroit Lions OL (#1 In Anderson’s Rankings) vs. Arizona Cardinals DL (#32 PFF)
Detroit’s offensive line has been slightly disappointing from an adjusted line yards basis, ranking “just” sixth in the category. The fact that sixth is considered underperforming speaks to how high expectations were coming in, of course.
They still rank first in adjusted sack rate, however. They’re not popping in the data because of Arizona’s overachieving — the Cardinals picked up five sacks against the Rams last week.
That’s where the data can be a bit misleading this time of year. Those five sacks came against a beat-up Rams team that was down its two top receivers while Los Angeles was chasing points. I fully expect them to regress closer to their preseason expectations, making this a solid buy-low opportunity on Jared Goff ($6,500) and the rest of the Detroit offense.
They’ve been a bit disappointing so far, but that’s largely due to their red-zone struggles. They have just a 27% TD rate this season after finishing second in the league at 67% last season. They’ll be scoring more touchdowns soon, which is good news for Goff and the offense.
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Indianapolis Colts OL (#3 In Anderson’s Rankings) vs. Chicago Bears DL (#27 in PFF’s Rankings)
This is another big mismatch based on preseason expectations that isn’t really coming through in the data. However, the Colts’ first two opponents this season (Green Bay and Houston) ranked 10th and 11th in the PFF rankings, making this a big step down.
Conversely, the Bears faced two bottom-12 offensive lines to begin the season, which has their number looking better than they deserve.
The big beneficiary here is Jonathan Taylor ($7,300), who’s averaged just under 15 DraftKings points in much tougher matchups so far. The Colts are also home favorites here, so the game flow should cooperate and help him see plenty of volume.
Counterintuitively, I’m less interested in Anthony Richardson ($6,700) due to the strong matchup. While he should theoretically due better on designed runs, less pressure means fewer scrambles, limiting his upside on the ground.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Detroit Lions DL (#4 In PFF Rankings) vs. Arizona Cardinals OL (#25 in Anderson’s Rankings)
I thought the #4 preseason ranking on my Lions was a bit optimistic coming into the season. I was wrong. Detroit is tied for third in the NFL in sacks as a team with seven, despite facing two above-average O-lines and not spending much time with a big lead.
Of course, I’ve buried the lede a bit here, as star defensive lineman Aidan Hutchinson has 5.5 of those sacks, more than 18 entire NFL teams.
With the Cardinals ranking 21st in adjusted sack rate, it could be a big day for Detroit ($2,900) at a very reasonable salary. We just saw a WR-DEF stack take down the milly maker last week — it could happen again this week.
San Francisco 49ers DL (#2 In PFF Rankings) vs. Los Angeles Rams OL (#10 in Anderson’s Rankings)
The Rams came into the year ranked tenth by Anderson, with him noting the strength of their interior line:
“Sean McVay has switched from zone- to a gap-based, downhill rushing attack and has built a mammoth interior line after adding Jonah Jackson to Kevin Dotson and sophomore C Steve Avila.”
One of those three players mentioned (Jackson) is doubtful for Week 3, while Avila is on injured reserve. They also have three (!) tackles on the IR — which explains Hutchinson’s big day last week.
We’re likely to see a similar performance from Nick Bosa and the rest of San Francisco ($3,500) in Week 3. They’re a bit pricey, but they could easily pay that off in a game they’re favored by more than a touchdown.
