Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Starting this week, we have a table including the combined adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate of every team and their Week 2 opponent. This will give an at-a-glance look at the strength of the matchup for both the rushing and passing offenses in every game.
That can be misleading in Week 1, as teams can make major improvements or regress over the course of the off-season. Therefore, in Week 1, we’ll stick to qualitative measures for the analysis. In other words, take this data with a massive grain of salt.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Detroit Lions OL (#1 In Anderson’s Rankings) vs. Tampa Bay Bucs DL (#20 PFF)
The Lions weren’t on the Week 1 main slate, but their top-rated offensive line produced 163 total rushing yards against the Rams, including 91 yards and an overtime touchdown from David Montgomery ($6,000).
Given the Lions’ status as seven-point favorites in Week 2 against the Bucs, it should be another solid performance from Montgomery. He out-carried Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600) 17-11 in a much closer game against the Rams, while Gibbs saw more passing-down work.
With Gibbs slightly banged up and a likely positive game script, I wouldn’t be shocked to see that ratio expand this week. Gibbs gets more action in the passing game and two-minute situations, but that’s less of a factor, given the likely flow of this one.
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Cleveland Browns OL (#4 In Anderson’s Rankings) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars DL (#26 in PFF’s Rankings)
Cleveland doesn’t look great in the table above, but they faced the league’s #6 rated defensive line by PFF, the Cowboys, in Week 1.
It’s a solid get-right spot for their offense, as the Jaguars rank much lower at 26th. Jacksonville held up reasonably well against the Dolphins in Week 1 — but again, the Dolphins offensive line ranks much lower than Cleveland’s in Anderson’s rankings.
Given the awful play of Deshaun Watson ($5,600), I still won’t be targeting the Browns passing attack. It’s a great bounce-back spot for Jerome Ford ($5,900). He saw just 12 carries last week in a game where the Browns were down big fairly early. This time, they’re just three-point underdogs and, in theory, should keep it close enough to establish the run.
He’s fairly underpriced, considering his 18.9 DraftKings points last week and the upgrade to the matchup in the trenches.
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Strong Defensive Line Matchups
New York Jets DL (#1 In PFF Rankings) vs. Tennessee Titans OL (#26 in Anderson’s Rankings)
Despite giving up 32 points to the high-powered 49ers offense last week, the Jets ($3,800) still managed to pick up three sacks and finish well above average in adjusted sack rate.
They get a much easier opponent in Week 2, a Titans team that ranked 26th coming into the year, according to Anderson. They took three sacks and gave away three turnovers in a Week 1 loss to the Bears.
Bad quarterback play was as much a part of that as the offensive line, but neither of those factors are changing. If you can find the salary to pay up for the Jets in Week 2 you should, as they’re projecting as the top D/ST by a comfortable margin.
Cleveland Browns DL (#5 In PFF Rankings) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars DL (#24 in Anderson’s Rankings)
Cleveland ($3,300) should have a big edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball this week, with 2023 DPOY Myles Garrett leading a tough pass rush.
Their fantasy success will be tied heavily to the game flow here. If they can get a lead and allow the front to get after the quarterback, it could be a long night for the Jaguars passing attack. On the other hand, the situation might not be so dire in the rushing attack for Jacksonville.
That makes pairing the Cleveland defense with Ford a solid GPP stack this week. A lead likely comes through Ford and certainly benefits him even if the initial scoring came through the air. There’s some solid correlation there, and it should be a fairly low-owned combination.
