NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge For Week 17 Contests

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. From Week 5 on, I will be basing these selections almost entirely on Football Outsiders data, including pressure rate and adjusted line yards.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources, including the Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

The Data

Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.

With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vise-versa for quarterbacks.

Starting in Week 5, these numbers became matchup adjusted, which should make them far more efficient. Each week, they become slightly more predictive. However, they don’t take injuries into account, so keeping up on those are important. Also, keep in mind that adjusted sack rate takes into account sacks, not pressures.

Therefore quarterback play heavily influences the offensive side of the statistic.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Kansas City Chiefs OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #6 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Denver Broncos DL

The combination of dominant play up front and an explosive offense makes “Chiefs’ running back” a strong option on most slates. Especially this week against the Broncos. Denver ranks 27th in adjusted line yards and 22nd in DVOA against the run –compared to fourth against the pass.

Kansas City is also a nearly two-touchdown favorite, so the running game should play an even more important role this week, which is why the pendulum may have swung back to Isaiah Pacheco ($5,600) here. He’s been outscored by teammate Jerick McKinnon ($6,000) the past three weeks, but Pacheco was the leader in the preceding three games.

Pacheco has consistently earned more carries than McKinnon, with the latter making up for it through the air. However, the expected game flow and the Broncos defensive tendencies align to make this one more about the ground game. Pacheco has been more efficient on the ground as well, with 4.8 yards per carry compared to 4.1 for McKinnon.

Pacheco is a great tournament play this week, as ownership will likely still be on McKinnon.

Minnesota Vikings OL (#2 in Combined Line Yards, #11 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Green Bay Packers DL

Green Bay’s struggles in run defense are well documented at this point. They rank dead last in DVOA against the run and in defensive line yards. They’ve allowed over 140 rushing yards per game and over five yards per carry on the season.

Which makes this a great situation for Dalvin Cook ($7,000), whose top five in the NFL in rushing attempts this season. He’s narrowly missed out on some monster games this season, falling just shy of the 100-yard bonus in his two-touchdown game and hitting 95 yards rushing and receiving in the same game, for example.

This could be the week he breaks through, and his salary is more than reasonable relative to his workload. He’s an excellent play in all contest types.

Detroit Lions OL (#3 in Combined Line Yards, #1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears DL

The Lions running game has been frustrating all season, with Jamaal Williams ($5,000) doing the bulk of the scoring, D’Andre Swift ($5,300) getting most of the (higher value) passing game work, and Justin Jackson ($4,000) mixing in just enough to be annoying.

This is why my interest more heavily lies in the passing attack this week. Detroit is back at the Coors Field of football with the highest total game of the week. Jared Goff ($5,600) does better with a clean pocket, and the Bears rank 31st in adjusted sack rate.

While Williams vulturing some goal-line touchdowns is a distinct possibility, Goff is far too cheap this week. He’s a must in cash games and tighter builds, while worth considering in GPPs as well.

Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Detroit Lions DL (#1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears OL

Justin Fields ($7,900) ranks second in the NFL in both interception rate and sacks this season. While the Lions’ pass rush isn’t a top unit, they still have more than enough juice to get through the Bears’ porous offensive line. Detroit ($2,900) will probably allow a lot of points here while still putting up a big score themselves. That’s what happened the last time these teams met, with the Lions picking up three sacks and a pick-six.

Expect more of the same here, with the shootout nature of this game forcing Fields back to pass far more than the Bears would prefer.

Kansas City Chiefs DL (#2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Denver Broncos OL

Kansas City ($3,800) should dominate the trenches on both sides of the ball this week. Russell Wilson ($5,400) is the only quarterback to have been sacked more times than Fields on the season, and the Chiefs rank fourth in sacks themselves.

Unlike the cheaper Lions defensive unit, the Chiefs should be able to generate big plays and stop the Broncos from scoring. Denver is implied for just 15.8 points here, the lowest mark on the slate. If you can find the salary, Kansas City is an excellent “pay up to be contrarian” defense. They’re also an excellent stacking option with Isaiah Pacheco since both would benefit from the same game flow.

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.