Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources, including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Now that we’ve crossed the magical Week 5 line, we’ll be relying heavily on the data below. It’s now matchup-adjusted, which makes it fairly reliable, barring any key injuries.
The table below includes every team’s combined adjusted line yards and sack rate with their Week 14 opponent. Let’s get to it.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Dallas Cowboys OL (#1 In Adjusted Line Yards, #4 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers DL
For all of the team’s faults this season, the Cowboys offensive line has remained an above-average unit, both in terms of run blocking and pass blocking.
Of course, this entry really isn’t about them. The Panthers defensive line has allowed the most adjusted line yards of any unit in the league by a long shot. That’s also translated into Carolina ranking 32nd in points allowed to running backs.
This makes it a good thing that Dallas has finally committed to giving Rico Dowdle ($6,100) a full-time role rather than splitting reps with the ghost of Ezekiel Elliott ($5,100). In the last three games, Dowdle has handled 59 carries to Elliott’s six.
Dowdle is an excellent play this week, even with Dallas coming in as underdogs against Carolina.
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Buffalo Bills OL (#13 In Adjusted Line Yards, #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Detroit Lions DL
I highlighted the Bills last week as a strong mismatch in the passing game. Josh Allen ($8,500) responded by throwing for 342 yards and three scores — and running in three more touchdowns.
It’s a similar setup this week against the Lions. Detroit still has one of the best run defenses in the league. However, the loss of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson is starting to show in the pass rush data. Detroit now ranks 24th in adjusted sack rate.
Through six games with Hutchinson, they’d picked up 19 sacks — in the seven games since, they have just 12. The point is, it’s a great week to go back to Allen in what should easily be the highest-scoring game on the slate.
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Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Philadelphia Eagles DL vs. Pittsburgh Steelers OL (#1(tied) in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
The two defenses in this contest are tied for the best adjusted sack rate on the slate. For a few reasons, Philadelphia ($3,100) is the better raw play for DFS, though.
The obvious reason is the spread. They’re favored by 5.5 points, which means Pittsburgh is likely to both score fewer points and be forced to take more chances later in the game.
It’s also worth pointing out that the Eagles have the lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the league through Week 14. That means fewer dropbacks, even in a neutral game script. Since the data is based on adjusted sack rate, it’s important to also project opportunities. Pittsburgh getting home on a similar proportion of opponent passing plays would still equate to fewer sacks and pressures.
On the other side, the Steelers rank 19th in PROE over the last four weeks. Not exactly a “pass-first” team, but that’s still far better than their opponent.
Tampa Bay Bucs DL vs. Los Angeles Chargers OL (#2 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
Tampa Bay ($2,600) is cheaper than the two Pennsylvania teams, with a nearly identical combined adjusted sack rate heading into Week 15.
They’re a slight underdog heading into Los Angeles for a road game against the Chargers with a higher total than the aforementioned contest. However, they’ve been a solid defensive unit for a handful of weeks.
The Chargers have also shifted far more pass-heavy down the stretch, ranking 13th in PROE over the last four weeks. That should provide plenty of opportunity for the Tampa pass rush to get home. They’re a solid value option this week.
Cleveland Browns DL vs. Kansas City Chiefs OL (#7 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
If the Bucs aren’t enough of a value, Cleveland ($2,200) certainly could be.
The Browns are a top-ten team in both adjusted sack rate and total sacks this season. They’re taking on a Chiefs team with major offensive line issues that’s allowed 23 sacks over their last six games.
The Chiefs topped 21 points just once in that span, so we’re not even too worried about giving points back due to allowing big scores. Cleveland leads the position in Pts/Sal projection by a wide margin and will be in everyone’s cash lineup this week.
