NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge for Week 14

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources, including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.

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The Data

Now that we’ve crossed the magical Week 5 line, we’ll be relying heavily on the data below. It’s now matchup-adjusted, which makes it fairly reliable, barring any key injuries.

The table below includes every team’s combined adjusted line yards and sack rate with their Week 14 opponent. Let’s get to it.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Philadelphia Eagles OL (#1 In Adjusted Line Yards, #10 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers DL

Last week was a quiet one by his standards for Saqon Barkley ($9,000) and the Eagles rushing attack. Barkley rushed for “only” 107 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens after going for over 400 yards and four scores across the previous two weeks.

Now, the Eagles are heavy favorites against the worst overall rushing defense in the league and have the best run-blocking matchup on the slate.

We haven’t seena back priced at $9,000 in a long time, but Barkley deserves it here. A total failure seems very unlikely (outside of injury), given the complete smash spot.

The biggest risk to Barkley’s ceiling remains the tush push from Jalen Hurts ($7,800), vulturing touchdowns — as well as a complete blowout limiting his workload. Those factors make it a bit harder to get to Barkley in GPPs at his price, but he’s an excellent play regardless.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1500 deposit match.

San Francisco 49ers OL (#2 In Adjusted Line Yards, #5 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears DL

Both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are done for the season in San Francisco. The natural inclination then is to rush to roster whoever fills that spot, locking in some cheap touches.

That doesn’t always work out, as replacing a player like McCaffrey is hard to do. However, it just might this week owing to the excellent matchup for the 49ers offense.

They draw the Bears, who rank 22nd in points allowed to the position and 28th in adjusted line yards. San Francisco probably gives the bulk of the touches to Isaac Guerendo ($5,400), who saw 14 carries against the Cowboys when he was temporarily the RB1.

The 4th round rookie has 99th-percentile speed, so the talent is there. Of course, ownership will be too, so a sneaky option might be Patrick Taylor ($4,000), who’s minimum-priced and likely the second back in San Francisco this week.

Buffalo Bills OL (#4 In Adjusted Line Yards, #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Los Angeles Rams DL

Josh Allen ($8,000)‘s price tag reflects his consistency, not his ceiling, this season. He’s hit at least 20 DraftKings points in seven straight weeks without clearing 30 in any one of them.

That could change this week in a near-ideal passing matchup for the Bills. They’re taking on the Rams as road favorites inside SoFi stadium a week after playing in a blizzard.

Allen should have a clean pocket to attack downfield, with the Rams offense capable of doing enough to keep him throwing all game. Allen’s price tag should keep ownership limited, but I’ll want to pay up for him in some GPP lineups this week.


Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:


Strong Defensive Line Matchups

San Francisco 49ers DL vs. Chicago Bears OL (#1 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)

The 49ers front should dominate on both sides of the ball this week. San Francisco ($3,100) is projecting as one of the top defenses this week as they take on the Bears struggling offensive line.

Chicago has allowed at least three sacks in their last seven games while averaging over 4.5 sacks per game in that time. While the 49ers defense has struggled in recent weeks, they haven’t had top pass rusher Nick Bosa active in those games.

Keep an eye on the health status of Bosa coming into the weekend. If he’s good to go, fire up the 49ers defense.

Cleveland Browns DL vs. Pittsburgh Steelers OL (#4 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)

Both defenses in the AFC North showdown between the Browns and Steelers have the same combined adjusted sack rate heading into the game.

One of those defenses (Pittsburgh) costs $3,500, while Cleveland ($2,400) is among the cheapest on the slate. That’s because Pittsburgh is favored, but still creates an opportunity to pay down for the Browns. They held Pittsburgh to 19 points while recording four sacks in Week 12.

Cleveland is my preferred pay-down option this week for cash games.

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources, including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
 

The Data

Now that we’ve crossed the magical Week 5 line, we’ll be relying heavily on the data below. It’s now matchup-adjusted, which makes it fairly reliable, barring any key injuries.

The table below includes every team’s combined adjusted line yards and sack rate with their Week 14 opponent. Let’s get to it.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Philadelphia Eagles OL (#1 In Adjusted Line Yards, #10 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers DL

Last week was a quiet one by his standards for Saqon Barkley ($9,000) and the Eagles rushing attack. Barkley rushed for “only” 107 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens after going for over 400 yards and four scores across the previous two weeks.

Now, the Eagles are heavy favorites against the worst overall rushing defense in the league and have the best run-blocking matchup on the slate.

We haven’t seena back priced at $9,000 in a long time, but Barkley deserves it here. A total failure seems very unlikely (outside of injury), given the complete smash spot.

The biggest risk to Barkley’s ceiling remains the tush push from Jalen Hurts ($7,800), vulturing touchdowns — as well as a complete blowout limiting his workload. Those factors make it a bit harder to get to Barkley in GPPs at his price, but he’s an excellent play regardless.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1500 deposit match.

San Francisco 49ers OL (#2 In Adjusted Line Yards, #5 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears DL

Both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are done for the season in San Francisco. The natural inclination then is to rush to roster whoever fills that spot, locking in some cheap touches.

That doesn’t always work out, as replacing a player like McCaffrey is hard to do. However, it just might this week owing to the excellent matchup for the 49ers offense.

They draw the Bears, who rank 22nd in points allowed to the position and 28th in adjusted line yards. San Francisco probably gives the bulk of the touches to Isaac Guerendo ($5,400), who saw 14 carries against the Cowboys when he was temporarily the RB1.

The 4th round rookie has 99th-percentile speed, so the talent is there. Of course, ownership will be too, so a sneaky option might be Patrick Taylor ($4,000), who’s minimum-priced and likely the second back in San Francisco this week.

Buffalo Bills OL (#4 In Adjusted Line Yards, #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Los Angeles Rams DL

Josh Allen ($8,000)‘s price tag reflects his consistency, not his ceiling, this season. He’s hit at least 20 DraftKings points in seven straight weeks without clearing 30 in any one of them.

That could change this week in a near-ideal passing matchup for the Bills. They’re taking on the Rams as road favorites inside SoFi stadium a week after playing in a blizzard.

Allen should have a clean pocket to attack downfield, with the Rams offense capable of doing enough to keep him throwing all game. Allen’s price tag should keep ownership limited, but I’ll want to pay up for him in some GPP lineups this week.


Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:


Strong Defensive Line Matchups

San Francisco 49ers DL vs. Chicago Bears OL (#1 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)

The 49ers front should dominate on both sides of the ball this week. San Francisco ($3,100) is projecting as one of the top defenses this week as they take on the Bears struggling offensive line.

Chicago has allowed at least three sacks in their last seven games while averaging over 4.5 sacks per game in that time. While the 49ers defense has struggled in recent weeks, they haven’t had top pass rusher Nick Bosa active in those games.

Keep an eye on the health status of Bosa coming into the weekend. If he’s good to go, fire up the 49ers defense.

Cleveland Browns DL vs. Pittsburgh Steelers OL (#4 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)

Both defenses in the AFC North showdown between the Browns and Steelers have the same combined adjusted sack rate heading into the game.

One of those defenses (Pittsburgh) costs $3,500, while Cleveland ($2,400) is among the cheapest on the slate. That’s because Pittsburgh is favored, but still creates an opportunity to pay down for the Browns. They held Pittsburgh to 19 points while recording four sacks in Week 12.

Cleveland is my preferred pay-down option this week for cash games.

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.