NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge for Week 12

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources, including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.

The Data

Now that we’ve crossed the magical Week 5 line, we’ll be relying heavily on the data below. It’s now matchup-adjusted, which makes it fairly reliable, barring any key injuries.

The table below includes every team’s combined adjusted line yards and sack rate with their Week 12 opponent. Let’s get to it.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Detroit Lions OL (#4 In Adjusted Line Yards, #4 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Indianapolis Colts DL

Some weeks, it’s the ground game; some weeks, it’s Jared Goff ($6,600) and the passing attack. Either way, the Lions nearly always get there offensively, and they lead the NFL in points per game, with more than three points between them and number two.

They also have the highest total on the slate in Week 12. The tricky part this week is that it’s projecting as a fairly balanced matchup for both the run and the pass from the Lions. Given the price tag on all of their offensive pieces, that could mean scoring is too evenly distributed to really separate.

Or, somebody stands out like we saw last week. I’m more willing to bet on the run game this time around after Goff’s big week last week, so I’ll have more David Montgomery ($6,700) and Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,300) than passing game pieces, but all of the above deserve some exposure.

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Washington Commanders OL (#1 In Adjusted Line Yards, #9 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Dallas Cowboys DL

One offensive piece that might go overlooked this week is the Commanders Brian Robinson ($5,600). He shares overall backfield duties with Austin Ekeler ($5,600), but with a fairly clear split between Robinson getting most of the rushing work and Ekeler catching passes out of the backfield.

This week is the perfect setup for Robinson. Not only do the Commanders have the best combined run blocking matchup on the slate, they’re also favored by double digits against the Cowboys. The same Cowboys that rank 29th in points allowed to the position.

Robinson’s price is down due to his multiple absences due to injury, but it’s a near-ideal spot for the Commanders base down back this week.

Kansas City Chiefs OL (#10 In Adjusted Line Yards, #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers DL

I almost hesitate to mention this one because of how bad Patrick Mahomes ($6,800) has been from a fantasy standpoint this season. His price tag is based on his name far more than his production, with just one game topping 20 DraftKings points this season.

However, the Chiefs might need to get the offense rolling heading into the playoffs. They took their first loss of the season last week against the Bills, a lesson that they can’t rely entirely on their defense to carry them in games.

This reminds me of the situation with Jared Goff last week, where a team might come out trying to prove a point. Given the discrepancy between the matchups on the ground and through the air, that point probably comes via Mahomes’ arm.

He’s not a great (price-considered) play on paper, but it’s a solid “pay up to be contrarian” spot in a good matchup and with low projected ownership.

Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Minnesota Vikings DL vs. Chicago Bears OL (#1 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)

Minnesota ($3,400) has put up double-digit DraftKings points in five of their last six games. That’s partially due to a string of favorable matchups — their last three were against the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans — but they pulled that feat off against the Lions as well.

Chicago is definitely another favorable matchup, especially in the second half of the season. After starting strong, they’ve averaged 11.5 points and more than five sacks per contest over the last four weeks.

Minnesota is the league’s best defense by DVOA and ranks seventh in adjusted sack rate, so they should have no problem getting to Caleb Williams ($5,100) on Sunday. They’re the top D/ST option if you can find the salary.

New York Giants DL vs. Tampa Bay Bucs OL (#3 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)

On the budget side of the equation, we have our old friends, the NY Giants ($2,400). They lead the league in adjusted sack rate but continue to see low price tags thanks to coming in as underdogs on a weekly basis.

While the defense isn’t great overall, the ability to pressure the quarterback keeps them in the conversation, especially as one of the cheapest options on the slate. It’s not an especially soft matchup against the Bucs, as they’re roughly league average in sack rate allowed.

However, we don’t need much, considering the salary dynamics. They’re my favorite cash game option this week.

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.