NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge for Week 11

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources, including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.

The Data

Now that we’ve crossed the magical Week 5 line, we’ll be relying heavily on the data below. It’s now matchup-adjusted, which makes it fairly reliable, barring any key injuries.

The table below includes every team’s combined adjusted line yards and sack rate with their Week 11 opponent. Let’s get to it.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

San Francisco 49ers OL (#1 In Adjusted Line Yards, #7 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Seattle Seahawks DL

Last week saw the 2024 debut of Christian McCaffrey ($8,300) for the 49ers. They promised CMC would be a full go in terms of workload, and he delivered with 20 total opportunities.

It wasn’t a great fantasy performance for McCaffrey, as he was fairly inefficient on his 13 carries and held out of the end zone. However, that came against a Bucs team that ranks 12th in adjusted line yards while Seattle ranks 27th.

Plus, that was a close game with the 49ers trailing for large stretches. They’re favored by nearly a touchdown here, so McCaffrey should have a more rushing-friendly game script this time around. All signs are pointing up for him this week.

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Detroit Lions OL (#3 In Adjusted Line Yards, #3 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars DL

The Lions have the highest team total on the slate at 30, as they’re favored by roughly two touchdowns over the last-place Jaguars.

Their offense floundered last week against the Texans, needing two long field goals to eke out a win on Sunday Night. However, starting left tackle Taylor Decker missed that game and will likely be back this week.

Picking which Lions offensive player to target is the hard part here, and mixing and matching various pieces probably makes sense. My favorite option is David Montgomery ($6,500). Montgomery typically sees more carries in positive game scripts, and also dominated red zone carries for the Lions. There should be plenty of those to go around.

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Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Green Bay Packers DL vs. Chicago Bears OL (#1 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)

The Packers are a below-average defense in terms of adjusted sack rate, but check in with the best matchup this week — which says a lot about the Bears offensive line.

They have, by far, the worst adjusted sack rate allowed offensively. Thorn ranked them 18th coming into the season, but they’ve been hit with injuries, making them effectively much worse. In Week 10, four linemen missed the game, including both starting tackles.

Neither logged even a limited practice, so it’s likely they’ll be without at least one again this week, which makes Green Bay ($3,500) the best premium D/ST on the slate.

Cleveland Browns DL vs. New Orleans Saints OL (#5 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)

On the cheaper end of the spectrum, Cleveland ($2,600) is in a solid spot. The Saints offense is in shambles, and Cleveland still has Myles Garret to rush the passer.

While the Browns aren’t even the stronger matchup in their own game, they’re hard to pass on at their price point. Think of the Browns as a lower-ceiling, high-floor option for cash games.

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.