Projecting line play — or for our sake — the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. From Week 5 on, I will be basing these selections almost entirely on Football Outsiders data, including pressure rate and adjusted line yards.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including The Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vise-versa for quarterbacks.
Starting in Week 5, these numbers became matchup adjusted, which should make them far more efficient. Each week, they become slightly more predictive. However, they don’t take injuries into account, so keeping up on those are important. Also, keep in mind that adjusted sack rate takes into account sacks, not pressures.
Therefore quarterback play heavily influences the offensive side of the statistic.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Detroit Lions OL (#2 in Combined Line Yards, #1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears DL
The Lions are clearly one of the best offensive lines in the NFL this season, and they continue to find themselves on this list. Unfortunately, it’s a fairly murky backfield situation, with De’Andre Swift seeing his reps heavily managed, Jamaal Williams having virtually 0 passing game work, and Craig Reynolds taking just enough carries to be annoying.
However, it’s important to take note of their ranking in pass protection this week. We’ve touched on Jared Goff’s difficulties when under pressure frequently, but he should have a clean pocket this week. The Bears rank 24th in adjusted sack rate and should be even worse following the trade of Roquan Smith to the Ravens.
That makes Goff and the Lions’ passing attack an interesting GPP option. He’s fairly touchdown dependent — and could thus have a disappointing day if Williams or Swift pick up most of the scoring — but at $5,500, he’s worth a look.
Dallas Cowboys OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #5 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Green Bay Packers DL
With the Cowboys, I’m far more interested in the running game. Unfortunately, it seems like Ezekiel Elliott will be back at full strength this week, with the Cowboys insistent on treating him as their top back. If he’s not, Tony Pollard will be a massive value.
Elliott could be a sneaky GPP option himself, though. Nobody is rushing out to put him in DFS lineups, but he could have a solid workload after two weeks off. If that workload is combined with a boost in efficiency against a poor Packer’s line, that’s a recipe for DFS success.
Green Bay ranks 31st in adjusted line yards, with a +1.4 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to running backs on the season. Don’t forget about the Cowboys backfield this week, even if it is a committee.
Tennessee Titans OL (#3 in Combined Line Yards, #20 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Denver Broncos DL
The Titans somehow rank fifth in adjusted line yards and 31st in adjusted sack rate on the season. This is probably an example of quarterback (or even wide receiver) play leading to more sacks than the line is truly allowing — but it’s still notable.
With all that said, our interest in the Titans is obviously centered around Derrick Henry. After a slow start to the season, he’s scored at least 25 DraftKings points in five of his last six. The lone exception was a 19.8 score that came without a touchdown.
It’s a bit scary betting on a player so touchdown dependent, but his odds of scoring one go way up in such a soft matchup. Denver ranks 25th in adjusted line yards on defense. He’s scored two touchdowns in consecutive games — both against teams with bottom-tier defensive lines by adjusted line yards.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Denver Broncos DL (#1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Tennessee Titans OL
On the flip side, it’s also a good spot for the Broncos DST. They have a solid pass rush, ranking fifth in adjusted sack rate, and with Ryan Tannehill being one of the more sack-prone quarterbacks in the league, it’s a decent spot for a big score from the Broncos.
At $3,000, they’re a bit pricey for a road underdog. Still, they’re worth a look in tournaments and should carry fairly low ownership. Just make sure you don’t play them on Derrick Henry rosters.
Detroit Lions DL (#2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears OL
The combination of Justin Fields running himself into sacks and a terrible offensive line has led to the Bears having the league’s highest adjusted sack rate by a ridiculous margin. They’re as far behind the 31st-ranked Colts as the Colts are behind the 12th-ranked Steelers.
With that said, their offense seems to have turned a corner in the past few weeks. They’re averaging over 30 points per game in that span…while still surrendering 10 sacks.
The Lions defense also turned a major corner last week, picking off Aaron Rodgers three times and constantly having him under duress. They feel like a boom or bust option here, depending on whether or not Fields chooses to throw the ball away rather than trying to make big plays happen.
Like Denver, they’re a bit overpriced at $2,900 as slight road underdogs. They should be even less popular, though, given their struggles this season and how many lineups will be using Fields.
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