Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources, including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Now that we’ve crossed the magical Week 5 line, we’ll be relying heavily on the data below. It’s now matchup-adjusted, which makes it fairly reliable, barring any key injuries.
The table below includes every team’s combined adjusted line yards and sack rate with their Week 10 opponent. Let’s get to it.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Buffalo Bills OL (#2 In Adjusted Line Yards, #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Indianapolis Colts DL
The Bills have increasingly signaled their desire to move back to becoming a pass-first offense in recent weeks. Besides the trade for Amari Cooper ($5,800), their three highest games in terms of pass attempts have been in the past three weeks.
That’s great news for the fantasy production of Josh Allen ($7,700), especially considering that Cooper was out last week. This week, he and the passing attack have an excellent matchup against a bad Colts defense and a 25-point team total for a road game in a dome.
It’s looking good for the ground game as well, but Ray Davis ($5,500) is starting to siphon just enough touches from James Cook ($7,000) to make it hard for either to get their value at their salaries. There are certainly scenarios where one of them has a big game though, as they’ve got a great matchup as well.
Either way, it’s a great sign for the Bills offense in general; it just comes down to how we want to get our exposure.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Atlanta Falcons OL (#1 In Adjusted Line Yards, #6 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. New Orleans Saints DL
For the second straight week, Bijan Robinson ($7,700) and the Falcons rushing attack are in a great spot. While he’s yet to have a true ceiling game, Robinson has topped 20 DraftKings points in four straight while averaging just under 23 opportunities per game.
With the Falcons as slight favorites in a dome in New Orleans, it’s hard to see that changing this week. Top wide receiver Drake London ($6,700) is questionable, and the Saints defense is a major run funnel. They rank 13th in DVOA against the pass but 31st against the run.
Robinson looks to be in a great spot for cash games, and odds are he’ll have a massive breakout at some point as well. The chances of that are solid this week and would only go up if London is unable to play or limited. It’s worth tracking the news as we get close to game time.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Chicago Bears DL vs. New England Patriots OL (#1 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
I could probably leave whichever defense is facing the Patriots in this section and feel reasonably good about it. Since Drake Maye ($5,800) took over at quarterback, he’s thrown four interceptions and taken 11 sacks in four games.
Chicago ($3,000) is particularly promising, considering they rank sixth in adjusted sack rate on defense. They’re also six-point favorites and the home team here in Week 10.
They’re not even particularly expensive, so they’ll be hard to get away from as the highest projected defense in our models.
Denver Broncos DL vs. Kansas City Chiefs OL (#4 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
If you need to save even more salary from the Bears, Denver ($2,400) is a potential sneaky option. They’re likely to go under-owned due to the perceived difficulty of the matchup with the Chiefs — but this Chiefs team shouldn’t be an auto-avoid.
Kansas City ranks 26th in giveaways per game and only slightly above average in adjusted sack rate and points per game. Now they’re facing one of the toughest defenses in the league in the Broncos, who rank third in points allowed and second in adjusted sack rate.
The statistically comparable Chargers defense scored a solid eight DraftKings points against these Chiefs, with a similar score well within Denver’s range of outcomes. I’d certainly take that at $2,400.
