The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and value ratings for the Saturday Wild Card Slate.
We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Trends tool to test your DFS theories. And for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your team.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Joe Burrow vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $7,300 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
Joe Burrow projects for the highest ceiling among quarterbacks for the Saturday two-game slate. Opening at a 48-point total, the highest on the slate, the matchup against the Raiders should have shootout potential. Burrow leads a Bengals offense ranked as the eighth-best (per PFF), operating with a slightly pass-heavy play-calling ratio, using a 59%/41% pass-to-run play calling ratio (per RotoViz).
Facing a weak Las Vegas Raiders offense ranked 21st in pass DVOA (per Football Outsiders), Burrow should have no problem reaching an 85th percentile outcome and should likely involve a highly correlated receiving corps (0.71 positive correlation to his WR1) featuring Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, CJ Uzomah and Joe Mixon. Facing off in a Week 11 32-13-win, Burrow threw for 148 yards and one touchdown, completing 20 passes and should continue the trend of moving the Bengals’ offense through the air.
Looking at the Trends tool, in matchups with a total of 48 and higher, Burrow averages 21.37 actual DraftKings points and a +1.53 Plus/Minus.
Top Value: Derek Carr vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $5,800 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel
Facing off against the Bengals, Derek Carr projects as a top value among the quarterback position. The Raiders are among the most pass-heavy teams in the league, using a 62%/38% pass-to-run play calling ratio and should likely increase the cadence, currently 5.5-point underdogs.
With a discounted salary on DraftKings, it may not take much for Carr to reach fantasy relevance, facing a Bengals defense who has struggled to defend the pass, ranking 24th in pass DVOA. In addition, Carr creates salary relief to get to higher-priced weapons on the Cincinnati side in Chase and Mixon, who should be paired as bring-back options if the matchup shoots out.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Joe Mixon vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $7,100 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon looks to project for the highest ceiling among running backs Saturday. A dynamic playmaker, Mixon is the team leader in carries, seeing 69% of the workload, and has an integral role in the Bengals’ passing game, seeing a 10% target share.
Despite facing an above-average Raiders rush defense, ranked 10th in rush DVOA, Mixon can reach an 85th-percentile outcome given the high involvement in the Bengals’ offense and use as a weapon in the passing game. Look for Mixon to also be used in a clock-killing situation, with the Bengals currently a 5.5-point favorite, which should signal more opportunity for the lead back.
Top Value: Devin Singletary vs. New England Patriots – $5,800 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel
The deeply discounted Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary projects as a top value on the Saturday slate, despite facing one of the top-ranked defenses in the New England Patriots. With weather likely being a factor in this classic AFC East showdown, Singletary may see additional usage, splitting rushing attempts with quarterback Josh Allen.
Since Week 15, Singletary has emerged as the lead back for the Bills, seeing at least 12 carries per game and averages 4.63 yards per attempt. Singletary should reach fantasy relevance with the likely volume, with upside, given his goal-line work, seeing 32% of the red zone attempts (Per AddMoreFunds).
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Ja’Marr Chase vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
In a matchup with shootout potential, Ja’Marr Chase projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers on the slate. A top target for Joe Burrow, Chase is responsible for 23% of the Bengals’ target share, averaging 7.5 targets per game and 18 yards per reception. Facing a weak Raiders pass defense combined with big-play upside should equate to the possibility of Chase reaching an 85th-percentile outcome, especially as the first look in a pass-first Bengals offense.
Top Value: Zay Jones vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $4,000 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Zay Jones projects as the top value, given his discounted price tag on DraftKings, combined with his recent explosion in production. Since Week 14, Jones has seen at least seven targets in every game, averaging 9.6 yards per reception.
With the likely volume trend going his way, Jones should easily reach fantasy relevance as a top option in the Raiders’ pass-heavy offense. He should also see an uptick in volume, with the Raiders likely increasing their passing cadence in hopes of the keep the matchup close as 5.5-point underdogs.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Darren Waller vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $5,700 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
Darren Waller is the first-look option for quarterback Derek Carr. With a team-leading 23% target share, Waller projects for the highest ceiling among the tight end position this week. Returning to action in Week 18, Waller was targeted nine times and has averaged 8.5 targets per game and 12.1 yards per reception.
In a pass-heavy Raiders offense, Waller should also be the top option in the red zone for the Raiders, responsible for 26% of the red zone targets (per AddMoreFunds), which should add to his ceiling potential.
Top Value: CJ Uzomah vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $3,500 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
CJ Uzomah has emerged as one of the top options in the Bengals’ receiving corps, and at a discounted $3,500 price tag on DraftKings, projects as the top value among tight ends. Seeing 12% of the Bengals target share, Uzomah has averaged 3.9 targets per game this season and 10.1 yards per reception.
The normal allotment should remain for Uzomah, especially with the increase in production. Since Week 13, Uzomah has been targeted at least six times in four of the five weeks, signaling an opportunity for the tight end to reach fantasy relevance.
